Baroness Warsi the Manchurian Candidate Quits LEAVE for REMAIN, Boris Johnson Next?
ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum Jun 20, 2016 - 12:59 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
Baroness Warsi, a mostly from the sidelines LEAVE campaigner has now apparently abandoned the cause for FREEDOM for Britain from an emerging european super state because of that naughty Nigel Farage's poster of last week that highlighted the migration crisis that Europe faces. However, as I have often voiced that these converts to the BrExit cause could well turn out to be 'manchurian candidates' who in the last days of the referendum campaign would publically switch in an attempt to do fatal damage to LEAVEs cause.
The biggest such potential manchurian candidate is Boris Johnson himself, who I voiced could be a potential manchurian candidate when he first announced he would be campaigning for LEAVE in Mid February, and who really could deliver a fatal blow to LEAVE, of course I am very much hoping that I am wrong! But as Warsi illustrates you just don't know!
21 Feb 2016 - Boris Johnson Joins LEAVE, BrExit Camp - Tory Rats Leaving Sinking REMAIN in EU Ship
The first string of opinion polls following the killing of Labour MP Jo Cox apparently in the name of "Freedom for Britain" or "Britain First" have swung markedly in REMAINs favour, reversing an earlier LEAVE polls lead with REMAIN now marginally ahead on 45% against LEAVE on 42% with 13% Don't Knows as the following list of recent polls illustrates that until the killing of Jo Cox LEAVE had been in the lead but now have LOST that lead due to the actions of a radicalised right-wing extremist.
REMAIN's poll surge is further backed up by the bookmakers where for instance Betfair's odds in favour of REMAIN have now vastly improved from 1.6 to 1.30. Whilst LEAVES odds have widened from 2.60 to 4.2, again reversing earlier momentum in favour of LEAVE that now gives Brexit an implied probability of just 20% and thus conversely REMAIN on an implied probability of 80%, which in trading markets terms is VERY HIGH, an 80% probability for a particular outcome is VERY, VERY HIGH. For instance where market positions concerned I tend to commit to a particular direction on probabilities starting from about 60%. So a 80% probability implies that BrExit is now looking VERY unlikely.
So it should not come as much surprise if career politicians such as Warsi are at the last minute leaving LEAVE for REMAIN whom they now deem most likely to win the referendum and so if it was not this (Farage poster) then it would have been some other excuse to do damage to the LEAVE cause which just illustrates just how fickle and self interested politicians really are!
See my latest video on how the killing of Jo Cox has impacted the EU Referendum campaign, and if LEAVE / BREXIT can recover it's lost lead by Thursday 23rd June.
VOTE FOR FREEDOM on June 23rd - BrExit Campaign
The sum of my analysis of the past year comprising more than 120 articles and over a dozen videos concludes that LEAVE is in the best long-term interests of the British people. Therefore with just 3 days to go until voting day and opinion polls still relatively tight then it's a case of now or never for Brexiteers! You too can help towards achieving a LEAVE victory by supporting our BrExit campaign in this final push towards attempting to secure Britain's long-term future free from an emerging european superstate that IS destined to FAIL.
By Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
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