Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse - 20th Jan 21
Should you Buy Payment Disruptor Stocks in 2022? - 20th Jan 21
2022 the Year of Smart devices, Electric Vehicles, and AI Startups - 20th Jan 21
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand - 20th Jan 21
WARNING - AI STOCK MARKET CRASH / BEAR SWITCH TRIGGERED! - 19th Jan 22
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? - 19th Jan 22
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks - 19th Jan 22
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 - 19th Jan 22
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22
Best Metaverse Tech Stocks Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 14th Jan 22
Gold Price Lagging Inflation - 14th Jan 22
Get Your Startup Idea Up And Running With These 7 Tips - 14th Jan 22
What Happens When Your Flight Gets Cancelled in the UK? - 14th Jan 22
How to Profit from 2022’s Biggest Trend Reversal - 11th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Ready To Drop To 4400SPX? - 11th Jan 22
What's the Role of an Affiliate Marketer? - 11th Jan 22
Essential Things To Know Before You Set Up A Limited Liability Company - 11th Jan 22
NVIDIA THE KING OF THE METAVERSE! - 10th Jan 22
Fiscal and Monetary Cliffs Have Arrived - 10th Jan 22
The Meteoric Rise of Investing in Trading Cards - 10th Jan 22
IBM The REAL Quantum Metaverse STOCK! - 9th Jan 22
WARNING Failing NVME2 M2 SSD Drives Can Prevent Systems From Booting - Corsair MP600 - 9th Jan 22
The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history - 9th Jan 22
NVME M2 SSD FAILURE WARNING Signs - Corsair MP600 1tb Drive - 9th Jan 22
Meadowhall Sheffield Christmas Lights 2021 Shopping - Before the Switch on - 9th Jan 22
How Does Insurance Work In Europe? Find Out Here - 9th Jan 22
MATTERPORT (MTTR) - DIGITIZING THE REAL WORLD - METAVERSE INVESTING 2022 - 7th Jan 22
Effect of Deflation On The Gold Price - 7th Jan 22
Stock Market 2022 Requires Different Strategies For Traders/Investors - 7th Jan 22
Old Man Winter Will Stimulate Natural Gas and Heating Oil Demand - 7th Jan 22
Is The Lazy Stock Market Bull Strategy Worth Considering? - 7th Jan 22
METAVERSE - NEW LIFE FOR SONY AGEING GAMING GIANT? - 6th Jan 2022
What Elliott Waves Show for Asia Pacific Stock and Financial Markets 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
Why You Should Register Your Company - 6th Jan 2022
4 Ways to Invest in Silver for 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
UNITY (U) - Metaverse Stock Analysis Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 5th Jan 2022
Stock Market Staving Off Risk-Off - 5th Jan 2022
Gold and Silver Still Hungover After New Year’s Eve - 5th Jan 2022
S&P 500 In an Uncharted Territory, But Is Sky the Limit? - 5th Jan 2022

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

The Difference Between Gold and Debt

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015 Sep 29, 2015 - 02:51 PM GMT

By: DeviantInvestor

Commodities

Simple version:  Gold is good.  Sovereign debt is bad.

The world has added approximately $60 Trillion in debt since 2007, much of it sovereign debt created from deficit spending on social programs, wars, and much more.  In that time the world has mined perhaps 30,000 tons of gold, or about 950 million ounces, worth at September 2015 prices a little more than a $Trillion.  It is easy to create debt – central banks “print” currencies by BORROWING those currencies into existence.  Debt increases, currency in circulation increases, and until it crashes, life is good for the financial and political elite.  But debt increasing 60 times more rapidly than gold indicates that debt is growing too rapidly and due for a reset.


It is a tangled web of debt, counter-party risk, obligations, and unintended consequences.  From an interview with David Stockman:

Stockman goes on to paint a grim picture and says, “What happens when the financial breakdown comes is there is a great margin call. Everybody says ‘I want my money back and I’ll take your collateral if I don’t get it back. If I do take your collateral, I will sell it for whatever price I can get and cut my losses.’ So, this is truly a house of cards. The whole pyramid of debt and what we call hypothecation and rehypothecation of financial assets, that is the real bubble. That’s what people don’t focus on enough. Sure, you can think of stocks that are a bubble, like Tesla and its current price of around $250, or the biotech index which is trading at hundreds of times earnings is crazy. What’s really crazy is all of this debt that has been created has been turned into collateral and borrowed against at a very high rate. The whole thing is very unstable and tottering as we speak.. . . Much of this collateralized credit that has been created is a confidence game. It is a daisy chain, and when the confidence breaks and they start to unwind the chain, the amount of debt outstanding will shrink. That will create tremendous broken furniture in the financial system.”

How do you protect yourself? Stockman says, “The place to go in my view is cash. Stay short and liquid because we are going into deflationary collapse. We are going into a great reset in the financial markets where inflated asset values are going to be marked down tremendously, bond prices and stock prices. As a result of, that there will be great opportunity after the dislocation runs its course to buy things much cheaper than they are priced today.”

Stockman thinks the whole system unwinds sometime before the 2016 Presidential race is finished. (emphasis mine)

Critical Points Regarding Debt:

  • Margin calls come when markets crash, like now.
  • Then we discover who has been “swimming naked” as Warren Buffet says.
  • The daisy chain of hypothecated and rehypothecated dodgy assets backing massive loans breaks. Counter-party risk can overwhelm the financial system.
  • The towering edifice of debt is unstable and survives primarily due to confidence, until confidence crashes as it did seven years ago.
  • A collapse in confidence occurs along with a collapse in prices for bonds and stocks. Given that $Trillions in bonds have been inflated to the point of negative and near zero yields, there is downside room for a substantial correction in the 35 year bond bull market.
  • When companies float 100 year bonds the bond bubble is nearing its inevitable and ugly end.
  • Stocks in the US have corrected or crashed approximately every seven years. The S&P 500 Index hit an all-time high in May of 2015, seven years since its last major high prior to a crash.  There is considerable downside ahead, perhaps even if the FED cranks up QE4 and QE5 to levitate the stock market.
  • Question: If the Fed is the “buyer of last resort” who does the Fed sell to?  The problem with the uncharted monetary territory that the Fed has led the world into is that unpleasant and unintended consequences lie ahead.

From Adrian Ash (Bullion Vault):

“But if the Fed is scared, investors and savers should be doubly so.  Central bankers have led us deep into a forest where money does grow on trees, but not [economic] growth or stability, and now they can’t find the way out.”

“When night falls, there’s a very clear risk of panic as investors realize that central bankers, like the markets, are lost in the dark.”

Critical Points Regarding Gold:

  • No counter-party risk. There is no daisy chain of hypothecated assets for real physical gold.  If you own paper gold, think again about counter-party risk.  If you think you own gold but your friendly neighborhood banker has sold, loaned, or leased your gold multiple times, there will be a problem when you wish to withdraw that gold from the labyrinth of that bank.  Worse, the banker may have stolen that gold and left an IOU gold in the vault.  Of course, some people trust their bankers and are not concerned … fines, indictments, and prosecutions notwithstanding.
  • Fort Knox contained 147 million ounces of gold as of the last count … many decades ago. Since the last audit was performed 60 some years ago, there is risk that the Fort Knox Bullion Depository is actually the Fort Knox Delusion.  Apparently “trust but verify” is no longer viable, so act accordingly.  Confidence in the global monetary system will be shaken if the real contents of Fort Knox are confirmed and are not as claimed, so don’t expect an actual audit to occur.
  • Physical gold securely stored outside the banking system has none of the above mentioned problems. The same is true for silver.

I repeat:  Gold is Good.  Sovereign Debt is Bad. 

Gary Christenson

GE Christenson aka Deviant Investor If you would like to be updated on new blog posts, please subscribe to my RSS Feed or e-mail

© 2015 Copyright Deviant Investor - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Deviant Investor Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in