Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

China's Five Year Plan and The End of an Era

Currencies / Fiat Currency Jun 05, 2015 - 02:51 PM GMT

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Currencies

China is in the late stages of constructing its thirteenth five-year plan, a process that commenced over a year ago and will result in a first draft in October. While the bulk of the plan will concern regional and domestic development, it is the international aspects that will concern the rest of the world. The plan, which will produce specific goals for 2016-20, is already having an effect on China's foreign and trade policy.


At its centre will be a shift of emphasis away from trade with the advanced nations, whose prospects are bound to subside towards their level of economic growth. Instead, to maintain the long-term objective of 7% growth in GDP China will turn her attention to improving Asia's infrastructure, a policy for which the building-blocks are now in place. The Silk Road Project is advancing from the drawing board, and the Chinese-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), which will arrange finance for projects totalling as much as $20 trillion over the next thirty years, was formally established this year.

Working in partnership with China through the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) will be Russia, whose resources are central to Asia's modernisation. The SCO will eventually cover a territory from the Bering Strait to the Persian Gulf. To obtain extra resources, China has already established a dominant presence on the ground in Sub-Saharan Africa, secured the undivided attention of the Middle East by being its largest customer, and through its own diaspora can count on the cooperation of the South-East Asian nations currently in the West's sphere of influence. At the end of the thirteenth plan a substantial majority of the world's population will have become involved one way another.

The implications for the West are becoming apparent. We have already seen how Europe and Japan have clamoured to join the AIIB, despite their alliances with America. Unfortunately, America has been a Goliath to China's David: her mistake has been not to recognise the passing of her own era and embrace a future based on Asia.

Instead the US has sought to be obstructive. China now knows that America will always be fundamentally uncooperative and that she must plan accordingly. This is why, with Russia's support, she is ditching the dollar. She has been discouraged by America's attitude into establishing a parallel financial and monetary system. In doing so, she needs to offer something better than the US dollar as a currency medium, because for her Pan-Asian development plans she will need to attract long-term funds from Western capital markets.

This is where the new BRICS bank comes in. Its priority will be to de-risk Asian currencies which are less credible in international markets than the dollar, yen, euro or sterling (the constituents of the IMF's SDR). The obvious way to do this would be to incorporate something all Asians understand as money, and that is gold, which could be why most SCO member countries have been adding to their reserves. This would solve all cross-border currency issues within the SCO. While the West may not be initially impressed by such a development, a move by the BRICS bank to include gold in its own version of the SDR will in time highlight the relative weaknesses of a dollar-reserve system, particularly when Asia dumps its dollar reserves in favour of a BRICS super-currency.

This could mark the end of the era of pure fiat currencies, which started with the Nixon shock in 1971 when the Bretton Woods agreement died. Competition from gold-backed currencies from Asia would be the most serious threat yet faced by American hegemony.

Alasdair Macleod

Head of research, GoldMoney

Alasdair.Macleod@GoldMoney.com

Alasdair Macleod runs FinanceAndEconomics.org, a website dedicated to sound money and demystifying finance and economics. Alasdair has a background as a stockbroker, banker and economist. He is also a contributor to GoldMoney - The best way to buy gold online.

© 2015 Copyright Alasdair Macleod - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Alasdair Macleod Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in