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A Perfect Jobs Report For The Bulls...Still No Breakout...

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015 May 09, 2015 - 02:03 PM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman


The market looked very bad heading in to Thursday's action. It went up a bit Thursday off of oversold, short-term conditions as it waited on Friday's big Jobs Report, due out this morning one hour before the open. Traders were hedging their bets on which way it would go. Bears knew a bad number for the second month in a row would likely bring about a real slaughter as things have been weak on the economic front lately. The bulls were counting on bad weather being the culprit to the recent string of bad news on the economy.

The bulls won out, but did so in the very best way possible. They needed a number at, or just below, the consensus at 235K jobs created. Too weak and the market tanks. Too strong and the market struggles because of the fear of Fed-rate hikes. They got a good number, but slightly below expectations. An improving economy, but so strong that the bulls have to fear the Fed. Perfection. The market gapped up and never looked back. A slow, gradual process of moving higher throughout the day with the market closing near the highs. The S&P 500 closing at 2116, just nine points off the most recent high. Yes folks, still no breakout. Sorry, but that's reality. That said, a strong gap up and good day that gives the bulls some real hope the market will clear, but we've seen this script more times than we can count lately, so we shall see. A strong day for the bulls. A miserable day for the bears. We're close yet again but yet again we're not there yet.

So, once again as we're close to breaking out we have to deal with the short-term index charts being at, or very near, overbought conditions. We need one of those classic unwinding days that allows price to hang in very close to where it is now. If we can do that the market will be set up to rock. If we're up early Monday then we'll be very overbought, so it's best if we can hang around a bit for a day, or so, and then make the move with some force.

You always want breakouts to have force behind them. Breaking out at overbought likely wouldn't allow for that. The good news is that even though we're overbought a bit we are not staring at bad oscillators off this move higher. The oscillators are confirming price, and this too should give the bulls more hope, but I always have to throw in that we've been here so many times recently that I'll believe it when I see it and not before. Get the breakout with force, and then we can celebrate it. Until then keep an eye on the recent past so you don't overdo the near-term future. Play truth, not hope.

Overall, it was a very quiet week for the major indexes. The Dow led, up by about 1%, while the rest of the major indexes were mostly flat. Some down a drop, but nothing from nothing. This goes with how things feel. Early in the week it felt as if the bear had come upon us. Late in the week we're hopeful of breaking out next week. Another back and forth week that closed near the top of the range. In the end it was mostly nothing from nothing in terms of gains and losses for the major indexes. There is nothing bearish, for sure, but nothing totally bullish yet either. The range remains 2045, so now we can say 2025.

Someday something will give. The bulls are taking their turn at giving it a try. We shall see if the week of May 11 gives us the move up and out.

Have a nice weekend!



Jack Steiman is author of ( ). Former columnist for, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

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© 2015

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.

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