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Why Is It Impossible For Palestine To Be An Independent State

Politics / Middle East Jan 02, 2015 - 12:10 PM GMT

By: Andrew_McKillop


Why Is It Impossible?
The first answer is that it is not impossible. The economic reasons for that are pretty conclusive and simple. Decades of sanctions and unfavorable trading relations with and through Israel, and Egypt during the Mubarak era, has forced Gaza to make do and mend. To be a very efficient micro-economy, with its own offshore natural gas reserves. Eastern Palestine, as we can call it, with its ultra symbolic capital Jerusalem is another subject, economically.

It could simply said that Palestine got to the party too late. There was the post-1945, post WWar II party (preceded by the 1918 party and collapse of the Ottoman Empire, and there was the post-1989 nation-making party after the fall of the Soviet Union. Israel was created in the post-1945 party era.

Few if any Palestinians take the subject of "Should Israel exist or not?" very seriously, these days. Politically, for sure, it still has importance. But we could ask why shouldn't Latvia or Kosovo exist in Europe today? One very relevant local nation-making and nation-separating process is going on in Cyprus, between the Turkish east and Greek west. Fighting, in Cyprus, is as far back in history's rearview mirror as the fighting in Northern Ireland or Ulster, for continues association with UK, union with the Republic of Ireland, or total independence.

Why shouldn't South Sudan separate from North Sudan? It already has! The same could apply to east and west Yemen.

Should Libya de divides into a minumum of two, or three different entities each with a parliament and policy freedom?

In any case, how many countries are Syria and Iraq, these days? One probably effective solution to the horrific civil war in Syria would be a Damascus parlianent and regional entity replacing the former Syrian nation - although Bashr al Assad may not be too receptive to that idea! The western coastal strip and the Damascus heartland, which in the 1920s, 1930s, and 1940s existed from time to time as a semi-separate sub-nation.

National Paranoia We could possibly separate this phenomenon into 2 categories, that of older or more "mature" nations and that of young or not-yet-created nations.For the UK, national paranoia peaked in Sept 2014 with the Scottish referendum. Not ironicaly at all, the talk in Westminster, in debate after debate at the two chambers of government, is about "Maxi Dev" or maximum devolution of power - fiscal, economic, legal and social - to at least 4 national and regional parliaments. Not "local assemblies" but parliamnts. Conversely the separatists of Catalonia are facing headwinds from the Madrid government which is very anxious not to lose its fiscal and economic power in Catalonia or elsewhere in Spain, like the Basque country.

For sure and certain Russia is suffering national paranoia these days! The whole "sanctions process" against Russia, supposedly concerning Ukraine, is laughable, but it exists.  The so- called prize of the operation - Ukraine (if it joins Nato then Nato troops can be put on the exact "front line" with Russia!) - is an economic basket case. Almost certainly, spending by Russia in Crimea for naval and aeronaval facilities is more than Crimeans could reasonably expect from a "Europeanized" western-looking Ukraine, because its a basket case. To be sure, Putin has engaged in Russian national paranoia but this is an expensive leisure habit, also driven by the fear of "copycat separation" by any one of Russia's federal republics.

Almost unbelievably given its history and geographic location, the USA suffers from advanced national paranoia, also. Cyberware is one inevitaable fall out - elevating the denial of access to Sony Pictures or Google or Apple's iMusic Store a "raison de guerre", the moment to roll out the tanks and the F-35s (if they are airworthy). Seemingly, nobody ever heard of nuclear war and SLBMs and theater nuclear weapons, and tactical nuclear weapons and all the rest. Incredible!

They never heard of giant dirty bombs called NPPs, that explode like Chernobyl or Fukushima.Making the tale even more cautionary, Chernobyl was and is in Ukraine.The total ridiculousness of looking after and running NPPs to supply a large amount of national electricity - during a civil war - leaps out from the page! If you want a civil war, or don't have any choice because its forced on you, keep its IS-style. The Islamic State which can be winkled out of every hiding-hole in every town and city they ever occupied - and shot dead.

The Islamic State "phenomenon" is highly paaranoid, something like being paranois about a new all-Islamic Caliphate - which doesn't exist! Or "before it is created", but that is just blether and gurgling. First you have to create your state, before you can have the national megalomania and the national paranois which run together like day and night. And only the brain dead would want an IS-type police state to suffer in. Ask the Kurds or Yazidis what they think about IS !

Global Paranoia At the global leveel the paranoia is above all global and is financial, monetary and economic. Often only dimply knwn or perceived by th mass of people, becaause it is supposedly "very complicated", it is in fact utterly simple! It can all be reduced to runanway national debt and what can (and can't) be done about it.

Its easy to agree the subject is boring, so we have to simply summarise the global (not nationaal) context as No Economic Future. As we said its financial, monetary and economi, all three of them. One interesting real world post-2008 fact is that the money in your pocket iss entirely worthless, merely a confidence trick based on "confidence".  Confidence in what?

Confidence that the natural-normal price of a barrel of oil is $100, for example? That was a financial industry "no-brainer" for years and years - and then it disappeared in 3 months! The sequels will be major, like slashing the ridiculous "stocker prices" of homes - one flagrant case is the UK - by the 50% or 60% reduction they need, like the oil price needed. In this case land prices and housebuilding would collapse, like oil exploration and development spending.

Measurement of the Global Paranoia Index is not an exact science, but we could add the regular bleatings about Global Warming and the plight of polar bears, to the list. Like the football cult, the global warming cult helps to idiotize the general public or consumer horde, by forcing them to take something so stupid, so seriously. Whether their banks are worth nothing (in fact a lot less than nothing!) and the money in their pocket is chaff, the Gay Consumer can trip happily to the supermarket and crawl to the next football game! This is Freedom.

The Palestinian Solution Living like Gazans is the plight of more and more people in so-called "rich" nations, but is also an opportunity. City centres in many EU28 countries today are almost car-free. Social associaative organizations and NGOs are highly present, for example handing out free meals and supplying cheap accommodation. Education and health care systems are generally free to all. The Europe of post-2008 is certainly not like pre-2008, and getting even less so.

Japan is in a very comparable situation in all areas - social, political and economic. There are also plenty of similarities with the USA, Russia, China and India. In the European case or Amrican case that could be called a "deficit of democracy", but in fact in all cases we haave post-democratic sociey whether the present government system, in China, is not yet democratic.

Under certain political conditions, it would not be surprising if Gaza decided to "go it alone" relative to Israel and eastern Palestine. In fact, Gaza has already done that, in several ways comparable with the Northern Cyprus republic, or the Crmean republic.  In all cases we are talking about the alternate economy as well as the alternate state and government. Hot spots for nation-building like Gaza and-or Palestine are also targets for establishing the so-called "footloose industrie", from call centres to car assembly and clothes manufacturing.

Thi can all be called pre-emptive response to global debt default. The problem is that global debt default is inevitable and is happening, at present in a supposedly "contained" way. Nation building and nation-separationwil inevitably include debt acceptance or recognition and the rescheduling of debt after nation separation or creation. One case will be the UK and its unpayable national debt which simply since 2010 has grown about 290 billion GBP or 450 billion US dollars. Separated and divided four-ways by 4 separate national or regional parliaments (possibly 5, with the Northern English "super region"), the former unitary national debt of the UK could be cut back, in the separation process, allowing a "clean start" or "cleaner start".

In the Palestinian case, Israel could or might demand repayment of its administration and security "services" during the occupation, but that may be difficult to take thugh international law courts, and win! Egypt could or might use Gaza as an export platform, but this would rival its own export platforms.

The Palestinian solution could become very common in the coming decades. Following a de facto separation, we get a de judere separation - and what is wrong with that?

By Andrew McKillop


Former chief policy analyst, Division A Policy, DG XVII Energy, European Commission. Andrew McKillop Biographic Highlights

Co-author 'The Doomsday Machine', Palgrave Macmillan USA, 2012

Andrew McKillop has more than 30 years experience in the energy, economic and finance domains. Trained at London UK’s University College, he has had specially long experience of energy policy, project administration and the development and financing of alternate energy. This included his role of in-house Expert on Policy and Programming at the DG XVII-Energy of the European Commission, Director of Information of the OAPEC technology transfer subsidiary, AREC and researcher for UN agencies including the ILO.

© 2014 Copyright Andrew McKillop - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisor.

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