Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Gold Mining Stocks: A House Built on Shaky Ground - 9th Apr 21
Stock Market On the Verge of a Pullback - 9th Apr 21
What Is Bitcoin Unlimited? - 9th Apr 21
Most Money Managers Gamble With Your Money - 9th Apr 21
Top 5 Evolving Trends For Mobile Casinos - 9th Apr 21
Top 5 AI Tech Stocks Investing 2021 Analysis - 8th Apr 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021 - Crash or Continuing Bull Run? - 8th Apr 21
Don’t Be Fooled by the Stock Market Rally - 8th Apr 21
Gold and Latin: Twin Pillars of Western Rejuvenation - 8th Apr 21
Stronger US Dollar Reacts To Global Market Concerns – Which ETFs Will Benefit? Part II - 8th Apr 21
You're invited: Spot the Next BIG Move in Oil, Gas, Energy ETFs - 8th Apr 21
Ladies and Gentlemen, Mr US Dollar is Back - 8th Apr 21
Stock Market New S&P 500 Highs or Metals Rising? - 8th Apr 21
Microsoft AI Azure Cloud Computing Driving Tech Giant Profits - 7th Apr 21
Amazon Tech Stock PRIMEDAY SALE- 7th Apr 21
The US has Metals Problem - Lithium, Graphite, Copper, Nickel Supplies - 7th Apr 21
Yes, the Fed Will Cover Biden’s $4 Trillion Deficit - 7th Apr 21
S&P 500 Fireworks and Gold Going Stronger - 7th Apr 21
Stock Market Perceived Vs. Actual Risks: The Key To Success - 7th Apr 21
Investing in Google Deep Mind AI 2021 (Alphabet) - 6th Apr 21
Which ETFs Will Benefit As A Stronger US Dollar Reacts To Global Market Concerns - 6th Apr 21
Staying Out of the Red: Financial Tips for Kent Homeowners - 6th Apr 21
Stock Market Pushing Higher - 6th Apr 21
Inflation Fears Rise on Biden’s $3.9 TRILLION in Deficit Spending - 6th Apr 21
Editing and Rendering Videos Whilst Background Crypto Mining Bitcoins with NiceHash, Davinci Resolve - 5th Apr 21
Why the Financial Gurus Are WRONG About Gold - 5th Apr 21
Will Biden’s Infrastructure Plan Rebuild Gold? - 5th Apr 21
Stocks All Time Highs and Gold Double Bottom - 5th Apr 21
All Tech Stocks Revolve Around This Disruptor - 5th Apr 21
Silver $100 Price Ahead - 4th Apr 21
Is Astra Zeneca Vaccine Safe? Risk of Blood Clots and What Side Effects During 8 Days After Jab - 4th Apr 21
Are Premium Bonds A Good Investment in 2021 vs Savings, AI Stocks and Housing Alternatives - 4th Apr 21
Penny Stocks Hit $2 Trillion - The Real Story Behind This "Road to Riches" Scheme - 4th Apr 21
Should Stock Markets Fear Inflation or Deflation? - 4th Apr 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021 - 3rd Apr 21
Gold Price Just Can’t Seem to Breakout - 3rd Apr 21
Stocks, Gold and the Troubling Yields - 3rd Apr 21
What can you buy with cryptocurrencies?- 3rd Apr 21
What a Long and Not so Strange Trip it’s Been for the Gold Mining Stocks - 2nd Apr 21
WD My Book DUO 28tb Unboxing - What Drives Inside the Enclosure, Reds or Blues Review - 2nd Apr 21
Markets, Mayhem and Elliott Waves - 2nd Apr 21
Gold And US Dollar Hegemony - 2nd Apr 21
What Biden’s Big Infrastructure Push Means for Silver Price - 2nd Apr 21
Stock Market Support Near $14,358 On Transportation Index Suggests Rally Will Continue - 2nd Apr 21
Crypto Mine Bitcoin With Your Gaming PC - How Much Profit after 3 Weeks with NiceHash, RTX 3080 GPU - 2nd Apr 21
UK Lockdowns Ending As Europe Continues to Die, Sweet Child O' Mine 2021 Post Pandemic Hope - 2nd Apr 21
A Climbing USDX Means Gold Investors Should Care - 1st Apr 21
How To Spot Market Boom and Bust Cycles - 1st Apr 21
What Could Slay the Stock & Gold Bulls - 1st Apr 21
Precious Metals Mining Stocks Setting Up For A Breakout Rally – Wait For Confirmation - 1st Apr 21
Fed: “We’re Not Going to Take This Punchbowl Away” - 1st Apr 21
Mining Bitcoin On My Desktop PC For 3 Weeks - How Much Crypto Profit Using RTX 3080 on NiceHash - 31st Mar 21
INFLATION - Wage Slaves vs Gold Owners - 31st Mar 21
Why It‘s Reasonable to Be Bullish Stocks and Gold - 31st Mar 21
How To Be Eligible For An E-Transfer Payday Loan? - 31st Mar 21
eXcentral Review – Trade CFDs with a Customer-Centric Broker - 31st Mar 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Stock Market Happy Holidays

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014 Dec 27, 2014 - 08:07 PM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Stock-Markets

The week started at SPX 2071. On Monday the market rallied to the previous all time high at SPX 2079. Then on Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday it made higher highs, reaching SPX 2093. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.15%, the NDX/NAZ gained 0.85%, and the DJ World index gained 0.80%. Economic reports for the week were mixed. On the uptick: Q3 GDP, personal income/spending, the FHFA index and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: existing/new home sales, consumer sentiment, durable goods, and the WLEI. Next week, another holiday shortened week, there are only two reports scheduled: ISM manufacturing and Construction spending, both on Friday.


LONG TERM: bull market

With three trading days left in 2014, it appears this bull market will soon enter its sixth year. The long term trend is up, the medium term trend is up, and the short term trend is impulsing higher. The market is up 13% for the year, and may even hit 14% before close of business on Wednesday. All in all a fairly solid gain considering the alternatives.

We continue to label this market as Cycle wave [1], the first bull market of the multi-generational Super cycle wave 3. Cycle wave [1] should unfold in five primary waves. Primary waves I and II completed in 2011. Primary wave III has been underway since then. Primary wave I divided into five Major waves: with a subdividing Major wave 1 and simple Major waves 3 and 5. Primary wave III appears to be alternating with that pattern: a simple Major wave 1 and thus far a subdividing Major wave 3. Since Major wave 3 has yet to complete, it recently extended again, we still have Major waves 4 and 5 ahead before even Primary III completes. Then after a Primary IV correction, Primary V should then take the market even higher. After 69 months of generally rising prices, the market has more than tripled. It appears this bull market has many months to go, if not, a few years.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

Nearing the SPX 2079 early December uptrend high, we expected a correction ranging anywhere from 5% to 15% to unfold. The reason for the range is that we have been monitoring three potential counts for this bull market. The preferred count, which has been posted in these reports, suggested a 5% to 10% correction. Ten percent if Major wave 3 completed at SPX 2079, or 5% if Intermediate wave v of Major 3 was subdividing.

After the uptrend topped and the correction was underway, we tracked the wave pattern to observe how it was unfolding. We counted a simple zigzag down to SPX 2024 for an A wave, then a simple rally to 2056 for wave B. After that the wave C that followed became complex. Nevertheless, we identified a potential low at SPX 1973 a week ago Tuesday. At that low the market had corrected 5.1%, and all of the technical parameters we track suggested a potential downtrend low. The following day the market rallied in five waves to SPX 2012, pulled back to 1992, then rallied to 2017 before ending the day at 2013. A new uptrend appeared underway.

This week OEW confirmed the uptrend. With only a 5% downtrend correction, an Intermediate wave v extension is probably underway. This suggests the uptrend high at SPX 2079 was only Minor 1 of Int. v, and the low at 1973 Minor 2. This uptrend should be Minor 3. Our initial target for this uptrend is the OEW pivot at 2214. Medium term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 and 2214 pivots.

SHORT TERM

As noted above, from the downtrend low at SPX 1973 the market rallied five waves to 2012. We are counting that as wave 1 of Minute i of this Minor 3 uptrend. Then after a pullback to SPX 1992, wave 2, the market rallied in wave 3 of Minute i. Thus far, we can count seven waves up from that low into Friday’s high at SPX 2093. This suggests a pullback, and then one more rally to end this third wave.

The internal structure of this rally suggests a maximum high, for this third wave, at SPX 2100. Should that level be exceeded before we observe about a 20 point pullback, then the count would have to be updated. The updated count would suggest Minute i and ii ended at SPX 2012 and 1992, with Minute iii underway. And not, as previously noted. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2100 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum is displaying a negative divergence.

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mostly higher on the week for a net gain of 1.0%.

The European markets were mostly higher on the week for a net gain of 0.9%.

The Commodity equity group were all higher for a net gain of 3.4%.

The DJ World index gained 0.8%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to downtrend and lost 0.5% on the week.

Crude also continues to downtrend and lost 4.6% on the week.

Gold is still in an uptrend, had a choppy week, and gained 0.1%.

The seven month uptrend continues as the USD gained 0.5% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

Thursday: holiday. Friday: ISM manufacturing and Construction spending at 10am. Nothing noted on the FED’s agenda. Best to your weekend and New Year week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2014 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Tony Caldaro Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules