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Stock Market Gap Down And Hold....Not Run, But At Least Hold....

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014 Dec 02, 2014 - 10:26 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets

So at least the bears can say they made some progress today. Not exactly what they would love to see but at least they have something more positive to hold on to. They were able to get a strong gap down and they definitely held that gap down all day as the bulls tried several times to move things back up but the determined bears held that gap wide open. That's a huge start for the dark side players as they have been unable to that for a very long time. Large gap down and hold seems like something from the dark ages. Today they did it, but they did fail to do the whole package, which would have included a gap down and run lower all day with a close at or on the lows. But that's fine with them as they'll take whatever they can. They're so used to being disappointed they had mostly given up. Today at least they didn't give up.


When the bulls tried the bears tried a bit harder. A change of trend but one day does not make a full-trend change. That needs to be a process where it becomes consistent day after day. If the bears can repeat the process of selling attempted rallies then they are in charge. For now, we just don't know, but you have to start somewhere. Now let's see if the bears can move forward with part two, which is to have yet another gap down of decent size that doesn't come back. Two open, nasty gap downs would be the medicine that gets the bears far more aggressive. One gap gets them excited. Two open gap downs allows them to get aggressive, and that's when the bulls will feel real pain. So again, the bears have begun the process of taking things over a bit, but they have a long way to go before they can say they're truly in control and that the bulls better start running for shelter.

It was very interesting to see black Friday acting so poorly for the bulls. Maybe this was the first sign that things were about to reverse. Normally a very bullish retail half day of trading became a day of severe carnage in certain areas of the market. The commodity world along with rails and industrials were taken out back and put down. The follow through today also comes as a bit of a surprise as the first of the month is often used for buying by the big boys to show what they're doing with the dollars of those they represent. Showing folks they know what they're supposedly doing. Two days back to back that show abnormal behavior can be the prelude to further nastiness for the long side players. Don't lose your sense of what's potentially affecting the market.

We know we have very overbought daily-index charts. We know we have very overbought monthly-index charts. We know we have very overbought weekly-index charts along with weekly-index charts flashing major negative divergences. We have froth off the charts at a reading of 42.7% bulls to bears. Awful number. When a market chooses to sell it usually wants to do so in a way that no one is expecting, thus, the selling on black Friday and the first day of the month of December. Fool the masses and trap them. The market loves to play the bad guy. It's more fun. It loves to capture folks with their guard down. It's no fun otherwise. So yes, the market did what it did when it normally doesn't do it, thus, it did what it should do if you can grasp that. It doesn't want you to know when it will nail you. You can never let your guard down in this game.

First real support comes on the S&P 500 at the 20-day exponential moving average or 2040. The bears have basically been unable to capture even the simplest of support levels, so let's see if the bulls can defend, or whether the bears can finally make progress. If they take out the 20's they can then dream of taking the 50-day exponential moving average currently at 2007, and if they get there they will have accomplished a four percent correction. It's a start. One day at a time here with cash a very strong position.

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

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Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.


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