Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
The Most Exciting Biotech Stock Of The Year? - 17th May 21
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 17th May 21
Junior Gold Miners Should be Rallying – What’s Holding Them Back? - 17th May 21
Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
Learning the Financial Markets - 17th May 21
INVESTING IN HIGH RISK TECH STOCKS - ALL OR NOTHING - 16th May 21
Is Stock Market Selling Madness About Over? - 16th May 21
Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
Budgies Birds of Paradise Indoor Grape Vine Singing, Chirping and Flying Parakeets Fun 3D VR180 UK - 16th May 21
Wall Street Roiled by Hot Inflation Data: Is This REALLY “Transitory”? - 16th May 21
Inflation Going Stag - 16th May 21
CHIA Coins After 1st Week of Plotting 140 Plot 14tb Farm. Crunching the Numbers How to Win - 15th May 21
Tips to Create the Best Cross-Functional Teams - 15th May 21
Gold: Lose a Battle to Win the War - 14th May 21
Are You Invested in America’s “Two-Hour Boom” Fast Shipping Stocks? - 14th May 21
Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
6 Solid Signs You Should Have Your Smart Device Repaired Right Away - 14th May 21
Ways to Finance Your Business Growth - 14th May 21
Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
How Much CHIA Coins Profit from 100 Plot 10tb Farm? Hard Drive Space Mining - 13th May 21
Stock Market Bulls Getting Caught in the Whirlwind - 13th May 21
Legoland Windsor Mini land and Sky Train Virtual Tour in VR 360 - UK London Holidays 2021 - 13th May 21
Peak Growth and Inflation - 13th May 21
Where’s The Fed? Watch Precious Metals For Signs Of Inflation Panic - 13th May 21
Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
India Covid Apocalypse Heralds Catastrophe for Pakistan and Bangladesh - 13th May 21
TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
Gold Price During Hyperinflation - 12th May 21
Stock Market Extending Phase Two? - 12th May 21
Crypto 101 for new traders – ETH or BTC? - 12th May 21
Stock Market Enters Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast Time Window - 11th May 21
GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
Cathy Wood Bubble Bursts as ARK Funds CRASH! Enter into a Severe Bear Market - 11th May 21
Apply This Technique to Stop Rushing into Trades - 10th May 21
Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
CHIA Getting Started SSD Crypto Mining by Plotting and Farming on Your Hard Drives Guide - 9th May 21
Yaheetech Mesh Best Cheap Computer /. Gaming Chairs on Amazon Review - 9th May 21
Breaking US Trade Embargo with Cuba - Build 7 Computers in 14 Hours Before Ship Sales Challenge - 9th May 21
Dripcoin Applies New Technology That Provides Faster Order Execution - 9th May 21
Capital Gains Tax Hike News: Was It REALLY to Blame for Sell-off? - 7th May 21
Stock Market Transportation Index Continues To Grind Higher - 7th May 21
SPX Stock Market Correction Arriving or Not? - 7th May 21
How to Invest in an Online Casino? - 7th May 21
Gold & Silver Begin New Advancing Cycle Phase - 6th May 21
Vaccine Economic Boom and Bust - 6th May 21
USDX, Gold Miners: The Lion and the Jackals - 6th May 21
What If You Turn Off Your PC During Windows Update? Stuck on Automatic Repair Nightmare! - 6th May 21
4 Insurance Policies You Should Consider Buying - 6th May 21
Fed Taper Smoke and Mirrors - 5th May 21
Global Economic Recovery 2021 and the Dark Legacies of Smoot-Hawley - 5th May 21
Utility Stocks Continue To Rally – Sending A Warning Signal Yet? - 5th May 21
ROIMAX Trading Platform Review - 5th May 21
Gas and Electricity Price Trends so far in 2021 for the United Kingdom - 5th May 21
Crypto Bubble Mania Free Money GPU Mining With NiceHash Continues... - 4th May 21
Stock Market SPX Short-term Correction - 4th May 21
Gold & Silver Wait Their Turn to Ride the Inflationary Wave - 4th May 21
Gold Can’t Wait to Fall – Even Without USDX’s Help - 4th May 21
Stock Market Investor Psychology: Here are 2 Rare Traits Now on Display - 4th May 21
Sheffield Peoples Referendum May 6th Local Elections 2021 - Vote for Committee Decision's or Dictatorship - 4th May 21
AlphaLive Brings Out Latest Trading App for Android - 4th May 21
India Covid-19 Apocalypse Heralds Catastrophe for Pakistan & Bangladesh, Covid in Italy August 2019! - 3rd May 21
Why Ryzen PBO Overclock is Better than ALL Core Under Volting - 5950x, 5900x, 5800x, 5600x Despite Benchmarks - 3rd May 21
MMT: Medieval Monetary Theory - 3rd May 21
Magical Flowering Budgies Bird of Paradise Indoor Grape Vine Flying Fun in VR 3D 180 UK - 3rd May 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Technical Indicators Worsening

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014 Dec 01, 2014 - 09:56 AM GMT

By: Andre_Gratian

Stock-Markets

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend - Bull Market

Intermediate trend - While everything technical points to an overbought condition which should require an adjustment, the exact timing of that correction is for the market itself to decide and reveal.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.


Daily market analysis of the short term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at ajg@cybertrails.com.


TECHNICAL INDICATORS WORSENING

Market Overview

Last week, the SPX traded in a very small range. That had the effect of creating even more deceleration than occurred two weeks ago. At that time, the waning uptrend was rescued by the announcement that the Bank of China had cut its lending rate. This caused the index to gap open, and move to a new high, but the rally quickly ran out of steam and prices went essentially sideways for most of the week.

There was another announcement which impacted the market on Thursday! OPEC left its production rate unchanged. While this was clearly a negative for oil stocks, the rest of equities were not sure and the index quickly stabilized near unchanged, but sold off at the close. Since Friday was a short session, the week-end may be required to fully digest the impact of this decision and, by Monday, we will know better how the overall market is taking the news, although the longer-term effects are likely to be negative.

Let's look over the week's impact on the technical indicators.

Momentum: The weekly MACD continued to edge up with severe negative divergence. The SRSI is, at best, neutral with a strong negative bias. With its histogram at .46 the daily MACD is very close to making a bearish cross, while the SRSI has (finally) begun to roll over. The hourly MACD is still positive but has started to accelerate its decline.

Breadth: The McClellan Oscillator rolled over after posting strong negative divergence. The Summation Index pushed slightly higher.

Structure: Probably still in primary wave 3. It remains within the confines of its intermediate channel.

Accumulation/distribution. Short-term: A small distribution pattern has formed on the 1X P&F chart. Long-term: No sign of distribution on 3X chart.

XIV: Has played catch-up with SPX in the past few days and may have filled a projection. It sold off sharply on Friday.

Cycles: It may be time to consider the implications of the 7-year cycle topping in this time frame with a low towards the end of 2015.

Chart Analysis

We start with the weekly SPX (chart courtesy of QCharts, including others below) with the McClellan Summation Index posted underneath it.

Up to the present, SPX has been a study in upside momentum. Long-term, it has pushed well past the top of its long-term channel. Short-term, it has gone straight up without any correction from its 1820 low of mid-October. However, there is strong evidence accumulating that this is about to come to and end.

For one, the index is at, or approaching, a cluster of Fibonacci projections taken from a number of points along the path of the bull-market. It has also arrived at a point of major resistance created by the top of its intermediate channel (primary wave III) as well as the top of the weekly Bollinger Band. And, its excursion outside of its primary bull market channel has stretched its channel to 1.382 of its original width. It is unlikely that all this can be overcome without a serious correction, especially considering what is coming down the road.

Furthermore, the weekly A/D indicator (NYSI) shows strong negative divergence at the same time that its RSI is becoming severely overbought, suggesting that a correction is near. This has support from the momentum indicators (MACD, SRSI) which are in an uptrend but exhibiting strong negative divergence.

A weekly close below 2040 would be likely to start a correction.

Another weekly chart (SML:SPX, courtesy of StockCharts.com) adds a strong confirmation to the uptrend deterioration described above. In order to suggest a continuation of the uptrend, this chart would have to turn up and keep going. It may already have tried and failed.

SML:SPX Weekly Chart

The daily SPX chart which appears below has several interesting (and telling) features.

Here also we can see that the top of the green intermediate channel has practically been reached. The index has also exited the steep channel which was formed from the 1820 low and started to trade outside of it. Last week it also broke outside of a more recent trend line.

One of the most interesting aspects of this chart is that the entire history of the uptrend from the 1820 level may be represented by the gaps in price (marked in light blue) which occurred along the way. The three types of gaps are clearly represented with a breakaway gap occurring when the index moved strongly out of its downtrend channel at 1909. This was followed by two continuation gaps at 1964 and 2001, and finally what is most likely an exhaustion gap at 2057 which has yet to be filled. The most conclusive proof that the uptrend has ended would be if an island reversal pattern was in the process of forming with a gap down occurring in the near future. That may be asking for too much, and simply filling the gap and continuing to decline would be proof enough.

Structurally, SPX may be forming an expanding triangle pattern which is almost complete. This pattern is represented by the red trend lines.

The oscillators fully concur with this analysis. All three have now rolled over, the lower A/D one showing by far the most negative divergence. This seems to be a common warning that a price reversal is about to happen.

The hourly chart shows that not one, but two exhaustion gaps have occurred with a good possibility that the small second one at 2063 will be filled as early as Monday. The first one, ten points lower, may see a little more distribution form above it (with the possibility of a slightly higher high) before it, too, is filled. All three oscillators, which were already trending negative, took a turn for the worse on Friday and this could lead to some additional selling on Monday.

All in all, every chart is showing a strong indication that the trend from 1820 is finally coming to an end. A reversal at this time (or even a little later) could have more serious implications than is expected by most market participants.

Sentiment Indicators

TheSentimenTrader (courtesy of same) long term indicator remains unchanged at 58.

Weekly Sentiment Readings

XIV (Inverse NYSE Volatility Index) - Leads and confirms market reversals.

Last week, XIV tried to keep up with SPX but gave up on Friday and turned down again. This little burst of strength in the index did not even come close to erasing the divergence that had built up in this indicator since the previous tops were made. We could be approaching the beginning of the end.

IWM (iShares Russell 2000) - Historically a market leader.

The same thing happened to IWM last week. Exactly the same price action over the near-term! Since both are leading indicators, what they are telling us over the intermediate and short-term should be considered strong warnings. In order to nullify its bearish posture, IWM would have to sustain a strong breakout and clear its former tops.


TLT (20+yr Treasury Bond Fund) - Normally runs contrary to the equities market.

TLT got tired of waiting for SPX and started to move on its own. Unless this is a head fake, it's likely that SPX will soon have a reaction in the opposite direction.

GLD (ETF for gold) - Runs contrary to the dollar index.

GLD reacted negatively to falling oil prices. This has the effect of nullifying the upward push of the 25-wk cycle, but it may be only a temporary interruption of GLD's short-term uptrend. After a couple of days, the index may find that the cycle still carries enough upward lift for it to resume its advance.

More evidence of this may be found in the next chart.

UUP (dollar ETF)

A week ago, UUP looked as if it had completed its upward structure and was ready for a consolidation. The plunge in oil prices may have delayed it for a couple of days. It does not look ready to extend its advance by much more without consolidating first.


USO (US Oil Fund)

Ouch! This is adding insult to injury! Last week, I thought that after all that steady decline, USO was finally ready for a little consolidation. I guess it was "little -- only lasting four days.

At 26, USO may have filled a temporary projection, although this is by no means the full extent of the potential downward count which could eventually prolong the decline to much lower levels.

Summary

With the mounting evidence against prolonging this uptrend much farther, it is increasingly risky to remain bullish on the market until it has had a solid correction. By at least one measure, this could turn out to be a substantial one, lasting into the end of 2015.

I'll discuss this possibility in detail after we have definite proof that the SPX has made an important reversal.

FREE TRIAL SUBSCRIPTON

If precision in market timing for all time framesis something that you find important, you should

Consider taking a trial subscription to my service.  It is free, and you will have four weeks to evaluate its worth.  It embodies many years of research with the eventual goal of understanding as perfectly as possible how the market functions.  I believe that I have achieved this goal. 

 

For a FREE 4-week trial, Send an email to: ajg@cybertrails.com

 

For further subscription options, payment plans, and for important general information, I encourage

you to visit my website at www.marketurningpoints.com. It contains summaries of my background, my

investment and trading strategies, and my unique method of intra-day communication with

subscribers. I have also started an archive of former newsletters so that you can not only evaluate past performance, but also be aware of the increasing accuracy of forecasts.

 

Disclaimer - The above comments about the financial markets are based purely on what I consider to be sound technical analysis principles uncompromised by fundamental considerations. They represent my own opinion and are not meant to be construed as trading or investment advice, but are offered as an analytical point of view which might be of interest to those who follow stock market cycles and technical analysis.

Andre Gratian Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in