Europe is an economic basket case while the US is kind-of sort-of recovering. Why? Several reasons, but the only one that really matters these days is that in 2012 and 2013 the eurozone operated with tight monetary policy and an appreciating currency while the US created new money with abandon and let the dollar fall. So US products got cheaper on global markets and US companies and consumers were able to borrow at more favorable rates. The result: relatively fast growth in the US and a descent into deflationary depression for the eurozone. Here’s the euro vs the dollar between early 2012 and early 2014:

But this is a currency war, so every couple of years the battle lines shift. Since the beginning of 2014 the foreign exchange markets have been anticipating a new round of debt monetization from the European Central Bank and a winding down of quantitative easing from the US Fed. As a result the euro has been falling versus the dollar, nearly eliminating the previous couple of years’ appreciation.

So, a prediction: The coming year will see the US disappoint the analysts who expect a return to strong growth, while the eurozone, after a serious scare later this year that prompts the ECB to open the monetary floodgates, begins to stabilize.

None of this means anything of course, since a currency war is by definition a zero-sum game where one combatant’s gain is another’s loss. But it will surprise those who focus on secondary effects like corporate profits or equity prices, while moving us one step closer to the day when competitive devaluation stops working for anyone.

By John Rubino

dollarcollapse.com

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis web-site.
(c) 2005-2024 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - Market Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted. Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. By using this site you agree to this sites Terms of Use. From time to time we promote or endorse certain products / services that we believe are worthy of your time and attention. In return for that endorsement and only in the cases where you purchase directly though us may we be compensated by the producers of those products.