Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Redefining Political Economy, Globalization & Business Models Consequent on Corona Virus Pandemics - 9th Apr 20
Plus500 Rreview - 9th Apr 20
Gold Price Closely Tracks Debt-to-GDP Ratio - 9th Apr 20
Gold, Silver and Rigged Market Socialism - 9th Apr 20
Going to School in Lockdown Britain, Dobcroft Sheffield - 9th Apr 20
Amazon Face Masks to Protect Against Covid-19 Viral Particles N95, FPP2, PM2.5, for Kids and Adults - 9th Apr 20
Is Natural Gas Price Ready For An April Rally? - 8th Apr 20
Market Predictions And The Business Implications - 8th Apr 20
When Will UK Coronavirus Crisis Imrpove - Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory Analysis - 8th Apr 20
BBC Newsnight Focuses on Tory Leadership Whilst Boris Johnson Fights for his Life! - 8th Apr 20
The Big Short Guides us to What is Next for the Stock Market - 8th Apr 20
USD Index Sheds Light on the Upcoming Gold Move - 8th Apr 20
The Post CoronaVirus New Normal - 8th Apr 20
US Coronavirus Trend Trajectory Forecast Current State - 7th Apr 20
Boris Johnson Fighting for his Life In Intensive Care - UK Coronavirus Crisis - 7th Apr 20
Precious Metals Are About To Reset Like In 2008 – Gold Bugs, Buckle Up! - 7th Apr 20
Crude Oil's 2020 Crash: See What Helped (Some) Traders Pivot Just in Time - 7th Apr 20
Was the Fed Just Nationalized? - 7th Apr 20
Gold & Silver Mines Closed as Physical Silver Becomes “Most Undervalued Asset” - 7th Apr 20
US Coronavirus Blacktop Politics - 7th Apr 20
Coronavirus is America's "Pearl Harbour" Moment, There Will be a Reckoning With China - 6th Apr 20
Coronavirus Crisis Exposes Consequences of Fed Policy: Americans Have No Savings - 6th Apr 20
The Stock Market Is Not a Magic Money Machine - 6th Apr 20
Gold Stocks Crash, V-Bounce! - 6th Apr 20
How Can Writing Business Essay Help You In Business Analytics Skills - 6th Apr 20
PAYPAL WARNING - Your Stimulus Funds Are at Risk of Being Frozen for 6 Months! - 5th Apr 20
Stocks Hanging By the Fingernails? - 5th Apr 20
US Federal Budget Deficits: To $30 Trillion and Beyond - 5th Apr 20
The Lucrative Profitability Of A Move To Negative Interest Rates - Pandemic Edition - 5th Apr 20
Visa Denials: How to avoid it and what to do if your Visa is denied? - 5th Apr 20 - Uday Tank
WARNING PAYPAL Making a Grab for US $1200 Stimulus Payments - 4th Apr 20
US COVID-19 Death Toll Higher Than China’s Now. Will Gold Rally? - 4th Apr 20
Concerned That Asia Could Blow A Hole In Future Economic Recovery - 4th Apr 20
Bracing for Europe’s Coronavirus Contractionand Debt Crisis - 4th Apr 20
Stocks: When Grass Looks Greener on the Other Side of the ... Pond - 3rd Apr 20
How the C-Factor Could Decimate 2020 Global Gold and Silver Production - 3rd Apr 20
US Between Scylla and Charybdis Covid-19 - 3rd Apr 20
Covid19 What's Your Risk of Death Analysis by Age, Gender, Comorbidities and BMI - 3rd Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections & Deaths Trend Trajectory - How Bad Will it Get? - 2nd Apr 20
Silver Looks Bearish Short to Medium Term - 2nd Apr 20
Mickey Fulp: 'Never Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste' - 2nd Apr 20
Stock Market Selloff Structure Explained – Fibonacci On Deck - 2nd Apr 20
COVID-19 FINANCIAL LOCKDOWN: Can PAYPAL Be Trusted to Handle US $1200 Stimulus Payments? - 2nd Apr 20
Day in the Life of Coronavirus LOCKDOWN - Sheffield, UK - 2nd Apr 20
UK Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Trajectory - Deviation Against Forecast - 1st Apr 20
Huge Unemployment Is Coming. Will It Push Gold Prices Up? - 1st Apr 20
Gold Powerful 2008 Lessons That Apply Today - 1st Apr 20
US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Projections Trend Forecast - Video - 1st Apr 20
From Global Virus Acceleration to Global Debt Explosion - 1st Apr 20
UK Supermarkets Coronavirus Panic Buying Before Lock Down - Tesco Empty Shelves - 1st Apr 20
Gold From a Failed Breakout to a Failed Breakdown - 1st Apr 20
P FOR PANDEMIC - 1st Apr 20
The Past Stock Market Week Was More Important Than You May Understand - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus - No, You Do Not Hear the Fat Lady Warming Up - 31st Mar 20
Life, Religions, Business, Globalization & Information Technology In The Post-Corona Pandemics Age - 31st Mar 20
Three Charts Every Stock Market Trader and Investor Must See - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast - Video - 31st Mar 20
Coronavirus Dow Stocks Bear Market Into End April 2020 Trend Forecast - 31st Mar 20
Is it better to have a loan or credit card debt when applying for a mortgage? - 31st Mar 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-stocks-bear-market-2020-analysis

Rogue States And Loony Tunes

Politics / US Politics Jul 30, 2014 - 06:41 PM GMT

By: Andrew_McKillop

Politics

The Term No Longer Exists
According to the semi-official Encyclopedia of the New American Nation, published by the University of Michigan, the term “rogue state” ceased being used by any US agency or politician in year 2000. It says American foreign policymakers had used the terms "rogue," "outlaw," and "backlash" states almost interchangeably as the Cold War reached its end. It says that as early as July 1985, President Reagan asserted that "We are not going to tolerate attacks from outlaw states by the strangest collection of misfits, loony tunes, and squalid criminals since the advent of the Third Reich". It was during Clinton's two administrations that “rogue state” had its heyday.


The Clinton administrations applied this label to five regimes: Cuba, North Korea, Iran, Iraq, and Libya. It defined “rogue state behavior” as frequently aggressive and defiant, coordinated between themselves, and intent on suppressing human rights while promoting radical ideologies. The definition went on to say that rogue states have a chronic inability to engage constructively with the outside world, exist inside a siege mentality, and attempt to develop weapons of mass destruction and long-range missile delivery systems.

To be sure this meant that as “sole super-power” the US had an obligation or responsibility “to neutralize and contain” them, and perhaps eventually transform them into good global citizens. Interestingly enough, as already noted the term fell off the teleprompters of all US politicians by the year 2000.

Conversely, the earlier term “outlaw state”  remained and became increasingly hard-edge and defined.  By the end of the Clinton era and the start of the George W. Bush era, American foreign policymakers had defined The Four Transgressions of the outlaw states. These four transgressions were to pursue the development or acquisition of weapons of mass destruction, support terrorism, severely abuse their own citizens, and stridently criticize the United States.

My Rogue States are not Your Rogue States
Defining outlaws was easier than defining rogues, which in any case has non-pejorative meanings as well as bad ones. As two specific cases, states like Syria and Pakistan were hardly paragons of rectitude and frankly “rogueish”, but were not added to the US State department list of outlaw states. This was because the US hoped that Syria could play a constructive role in the Palestine-Israel "peace process," and because Washington had long and close relations with Islamabad left over from the Cold War when Pakistan played the US and China card, because India aligned itself with the USSR and then Russia.

Afghanistan and Sudan, for example, could be added as outlaw states, to replace Syria and Pakistan. Other states like Serbia and Iraq could be added and withdrawn with the vagaries of US foreign policy. By 1998, the Central Intelligence Agency supported a variety of covert actions designed to overthrow Saddam Hussein, while Congress approved the Iraq Liberation Act in 1998 aimed at providing Iraqi opposition groups with increased financial assistance.

As the variable geometry, one size does not fit all application of The Four Transgressions shuffled the list of Outlaw States, usually adding to it, the US found it increasingly difficult to get support for military or other action against these pariahs from its “traditional allies” of the EU28, Japan, Canada, Australia and others.

Today, the transparent and to date ineffective attempts to paint Vladimir Putin as an outlaw (if not a rogue) heading an Outlaw State is encountering serious problems with those “traditional allies” who are not necessarily automatic allies. Their economic exposure to Russian sanctions, described under the Four Transgressions doctrine as the first line of containment to apply, is much higher than the exposure of the US.

The Nuclear Bugaboo
The recent history of US relations with North Korea exemplifies the massive fear among US foreign policy makers that other states will possess the same weapons as the US possesses. Firstly crippling the economy of an Outlaw State by “economic containment”, then moving up to military invasion and occupation is thwarted when the target state has nuclear weapons. When the boot of the first US grunt hits the ground, all national nuclear weapons and installations will be blown sky high.

This is the ultimate kamikaze threat – and it works. North Korea has applied it.

In October 1994 the U.S.–North Korea Agreed Framework was signed, committing North Korea to freeze nuclear weapons development followed by the “eventual destruction” of its nuclear weapons grade producing reactors. In exchange the United States, South Korea, and Japan promised to provide two light-water nuclear reactors that would be virtually impossible to use to produce weapons grade materials, along with petroleum to fuel North Korea's conventional power plants and food assistance to alleviate near-famine conditions.  Since that time various formats of this agreement have been offered, rejected, renegotiated and redrawn and the Outlaw State of North Korea has not been “bombed into the stone age”.

Similarly, Iran represented another case in which altered circumstances challenged the outlaw or rogue-state strategy. Each election of a new Iranian president, since 1997, has led to US calls for a "dialogue between civilizations" leading towards the normalizing of relations. Meanwhile, Iran's nuclear program which is entirely able to produce Dirty Bombs (if not “clean” ones) continues. Simply due to Iran's national nuclear power program dating from the 1950s, launched by Dwight Eisenhower's Atoms for Peace program, the build-up of nuclear installations and materials is massive, and Iran is “invasion proof”.

The nuclear bugaboo of the US also leads to the fantastic hypocrisy of at least tolerating, and probably directly aiding Israel's nuclear weapons program – of a rogue state that refuses to sign the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty or allow IAEA inspection. Israel is accepted as a “de facto nuclear power”. As a result, the US backs off.

Toning Down the Rhetoric
By at latest year 2000, there was a belated realization that calling states "rogues" might in many cases prove counterproductive and in June 2000 US departments and agencies dropped the term altogether. Other synonyms like outlaw states and "states of concern" were now used. Then Secretary of State Albright emphasized that the change in name did not imply that the United States now approved of the behavior of these regimes: "We are now calling these states 'states of concern' because we are concerned about their support for terrorist activities, their development of missiles, and their desire to disrupt the international system."

The State Dept at the time had its officials acknowledge that the "rogue state" term had been eliminated because some of the targeted countries—such as North Korea, Iraq, Libya and Iran—had “taken steps to meet American demands” and had complained that they were still being branded with the old label. By 2003 Iraq was invaded by the US, and in 2011 Libya was subjected to “regime change” military attack by the US, France and UK.

As for supporting terrorist organizations and promoting terrorism, US aid to Syrian rebels fighting the regime of Bashr el-Assad in Syria has since 2011 cost more than 200 000 lives, but that only proves your terrorists are not my terrorists. As numerous analysts and historians of US foreign policy have remarked, the “rogue state doctrine” inevitably risked exposing the United States to charges of arrogance and imperiousness. For a downsized USA in a multi polar world the doctrine is now dead.

By Andrew McKillop

Contact: xtran9@gmail.com

Former chief policy analyst, Division A Policy, DG XVII Energy, European Commission. Andrew McKillop Biographic Highlights

Co-author 'The Doomsday Machine', Palgrave Macmillan USA, 2012

Andrew McKillop has more than 30 years experience in the energy, economic and finance domains. Trained at London UK’s University College, he has had specially long experience of energy policy, project administration and the development and financing of alternate energy. This included his role of in-house Expert on Policy and Programming at the DG XVII-Energy of the European Commission, Director of Information of the OAPEC technology transfer subsidiary, AREC and researcher for UN agencies including the ILO.

© 2014 Copyright Andrew McKillop - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisor.

Andrew McKillop Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules