We can see price has recently retreated from the higher trend line of the uptrend channel. This pullback looks like it may well have pulled up stumps at the low set on 18th June at 1.0746. I have drawn a second steeper trend line connecting the March and May lows. Its extension was virtually a direct hit on the June low. Bull markets, which we currently have on the daily chart with a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, can often see a sequence of four to five consecutive steeper trend lines. It looks like the second is already in place.

Also, I have drawn Fibonacci retracement levels of the upleg from May low to June high. The recent low was just about a direct hit on the 76.4% retracement level. So here are two vital pieces of evidence suggesting the pullback is over.

Also, the Stochastic Indicator below the chart can be seen to be turning back up. While not conclusive it is more evidence that price may be turning back up here.

In my last report I stated how price may come back to the horizontal support line stemming from the May low at 1.0647. This would have been my preferred level to enter into long positions. But that’s just me being a cheapskate. Sometimes, if you want something bad enough, you just have to pay up. And that is exactly what I have done adding my first round of long positions. Now if I’m wrong here and price breaks the recent low then it is likely that price will head down further to challenge the May low.

WEEKLY CHART

On the weekly chart, I have added the Parabolic Stop and Reverse Indicator (PSAR). Currently the dots are below the price and look to be holding the current pullback. As long as that remains the same then this points to higher prices.

I have added some Bollinger Bands (BB) and it can be seen that as the trend appears to be changing from bear to bull, price has gone from the lower band up to the higher band with pullbacks currently being held by the middle band. A move to the lower band is not out the question however with this band currently around the May low level.

I’ve also added a Relative Strength Indicator and a pattern of higher lows and higher highs indicates that strength is indeed building.

MONTHLY CHART

Just a couple of things to note here on the monthly chart. Firstly, I’ve added the PSAR which shows the dots being broken to the upside recently which is a bullish sign. Also, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence Indicator (MACD) has recently seen its two levels crossing over each other. Another bullish sign.

So as the month of June comes to a close, by my estimation, the month of July looks set to be a cracker for the bulls. Personally, as long as the June low is not broken, I’ll be looking to add to current long positions around the beginning of July.

Bio

I have studied charts for over 20 years and currently am a private trader. Several years ago I worked as a licensed advisor with a well known Australian stock broker. While there was an abundance of fundamental analysts there seemed to be a dearth of technical analysts, at least ones that had a reasonable idea of things. So my aim here is to provide my view of technical analysis that is both intriguing and misunderstood by many. I like to refer to it as the black magic of stock market analysis.

Please register your interest in my website coming soon. Any questions or suggestions, please contact austingalt@hotmail.com

© 2014 Copyright Austin Galt - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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