Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
Chasing Value in Unloved by Markets Small Cap Biotech Stocks for the Long-run - 27th Jul 21
Inflation Pressures Persist Despite Biden Propaganda - 27th Jul 21
Gold Investors Wavering - 27th Jul 21
Bogdance - How Binance Scams Futures Traders With Fake Bitcoin Prices to Run Limits and Margin Calls - 27th Jul 21
SPX Going for the Major Stock Market Top? - 27th Jul 21
What Is HND and How It Will Help Your Career Growth? - 27th Jul 21
5 Mobile Apps Day Traders Should Know About - 27th Jul 21
Global Stock Market Investing: Here's the Message of Consumer "Overconfidence" - 25th Jul 21
Gold’s Behavior in Various Parallel Inflation Universes - 25th Jul 21
Indian Delta Variant INFECTED! How infectious, Deadly, Do Vaccines Work? Avoid the PCR Test? - 25th Jul 21
Bitcoin Stock to Flow Model to Infinity and Beyond Price Forecasts - 25th Jul 21
Bitcoin Black Swan - GOOGLE! - 24th Jul 21
Stock Market Stalling Signs? Taking a Look Under the Hood of US Equities - 24th Jul 21
Biden’s Dangerous Inflation Denials - 24th Jul 21
How does CFD trading work - 24th Jul 21
Junior Gold Miners: New Yearly Lows! Will We See a Further Drop? - 23rd Jul 21
Best Forex Strategy for Consistent Profits - 23rd Jul 21
Popular Forex Brokers That You Might Want to Check Out - 22nd Jul 21
Bitcoin Black Swan - Will Crypto Currencies Get Banned? - 22nd Jul 21
Bitcoin Price Enters Stage #4 Excess Phase Peak Breakdown – Where To Next? - 22nd Jul 21
Powell Gave Congress Dovish Signs. Will It Help Gold Price? - 22nd Jul 21
What’s Next For Gold Is Always About The US Dollar - 22nd Jul 21
URGENT! ALL Windows 10 Users Must Do this NOW! Windows Image Backup Before it is Too Late! - 22nd Jul 21
Bitcoin Price CRASH, How to SELL BTC at $40k! Real Analysis vs Shill Coin Pumper's and Clueless Newbs - 21st Jul 21
Emotional Stock Traders React To Recent Market Rotation – Are You Ready For What’s Next? - 21st Jul 21
Killing Driveway Weeds FAST with a Pressure Washer - 8 months Later - Did it work?- Block Paving Weeds - 21st Jul 21
Post-Covid Stimulus Payouts & The US Fed Push Global Investors Deeper Into US Value Bubble - 21st Jul 21
What is Social Trading - 21st Jul 21
Would Transparency Help Crypto? - 21st Jul 21
AI Predicts US Tech Stocks Price Valuations Three Years Ahead (ASVF) - 20th Jul 21
Gold Asks: Has Inflation Already Peaked? - 20th Jul 21
FREE PASS to Analysis and Trend forecasts of 50+ Global Markets by Elliott Wave International - 20th Jul 21
Nissan to Create 1000s of jobs with electric vehicle investment in UK - 20th Jul 21
Bitcoin Halvings Price Forecast and Stock to Flow Analysis - 18th Jul 21
Dell S3220DGF Unboxing and Stand Assembly - 32 Inch 165hz Curved Gaming Monitor Amazon Discount - 18th Jul 21
What Does The Fed Mean By “Transitory Inflation” And Why Is It Important To Understand? - 18th Jul 21
Will the US stock market’s worsening breadth matter? - 18th Jul 21
Bitcoin Halving's Price Projection Forecasts Trend Trajectory - 18th Jul 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Gold and Silver - What Everybody Wants Nobody Gets

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014 May 29, 2014 - 10:26 AM GMT

By: Rambus_Chartology

Commodities

Tonight I would just like to look at some random PM charts, in no special order, to get a feel of where we are in the near to long term look. As you know the PM complex finally broke down from their two month consolidation patterns which is part of a bigger 10 month consolidation pattern. In most cases the consolidation patterns have a down slopping look to them that tells me the price action wants to head lower. In a normal downtrend a consolidation pattern will form sideways like a triangle or rectangle or will slope up against the downtrend such as a bear flag that has a higher high and higher low before it gives way to the downside.


Lets start with a four month 2 hour chart for the GDX that shows the downtrend that has been in place since the March high. After breaking out from the five point bearish expanding rising wedge GDX went on to form two small red consolidation patterns that make up the bigger blue bearish falling wedge. The blue arrows measures each half of the big impulse move down with the blue bearish falling wedge in the middle. There is a good chance we may see a backtest back to the underside of the blue falling wedge before the price action moves lower.



The one year chart for the GDX begins to show you the bigger picture which is so important to grasp. Our current downtrend channel has almost the exact same angle as the downtrend channel on the left side of the chart.



This next 2 1/2 year daily chart for the GDX starts to paint the big picture that we've been focusing in on since the possible 4th reversal point on the big blue bearish falling flag. The little red falling wedge is the same pattern as shown on the charts above. The big blue falling flag shows you the fight between the bulls and the bears and how the bears have been able to take the price action lower regardless of all the fundamental reasons why the PM stocks should be going up.



This last chart for the GDX shows you the very long term weekly look that has the massive H&s top reversal pattern in place that has led to our current price. You can see the blue falling flag that is now 10 months in the making with our little red falling wedge that I showed you on the first chart above. You can see this week was the breakout week for the little red falling wedge. This helps us in confirming the all important downtrend is still in place. I'm sure you've heard the expression, it's always easier try to trade in the same direction as the major trend. This chart shows you why. We were only able to capture just small profits during each of the little counter trend rallies you see on this chart. You had to be very nimble to get in and get out without taking a big loss. If you hesitated the GDX showed no mercy on you. Our best trade was when we were able to short into the downtrend in the first few days of December of 2012 and exiting our shorts in August of 2013. The main trend was our friend.



Next I would like to show you some long term charts for gold we've been following for some time now as nothing has broken the downtrend that has been in place since the September 2011 high. This first chart shows what would happen if our current blue triangle works out as a halfway pattern to the downside. Keep in mind gold has a lot of work to do yet but as long as it keeps making lower lows and lower highs this chart gives us something to follow.



Below is a long term monthly chart for gold that shows a massive H&S top forming. If the red triangle breaks to the downside that move will complete the massive H&S top. The symmetry is absolutely beautiful as shown by the neckline symmetry rails. I know few believe gold could produce such a move down but few thought that gold would ever get this low back in 2011. Whatever everyone wants nobody gets.



About four years ago the Aden Sisters posted a chart similar to this one I built after reading their article on gold. Keep in mind this was before the 2011 high in gold. This is a time cycle chart that goes all the way back to the early 1960's which shows an eight year low followed by an eleven year high. This is my version of their chart they showed in their public article. As you can see the top in 2011 came in a few months earlier than what the vertical blue ling shows but for an eleven year cycle high I thought it was dead on the money. What this time cycle chart is now showing us is that the next important 8 year cycle low should come in around February of 2017. Keep in mind it doesn't give a price just the time component. So the expected important low in 2017 can be anywhere on the chart. Maybe lower than the current price action or higher depending on what gold does over the next three years or so. At any rate I found this chart to be very fascinating as it takes in such a long period of time and it did call the latest top in gold to within about four months or so. This chart also ties into my big picture analysis that is showing there is still plenty of room for gold to move lower over the coming months. All the best...Rambus


All the best

Gary (for Rambus Chartology)

http://rambus1.com

FREE TRIAL - http://rambus1.com/?page_id=10

© 2014 Copyright Rambus- All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Rambus Chartology Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in