Most Popular
1. Dow Max Drawdown Bear Stock Market 2022 - Accumulating Deviations from the Highs - 21st Feb 22
2.Putin Starts WW3 in Ukraine, Will Use Tactical Nuclear Weapons, China Prepares Taiwan Blitzkrieg - 28th Feb 22
3.World War 3 Phase 1 - Putin WINS Ukraine War! - 25th Feb 22
4.INVESTORS SEDUCED by CNBC and the STOCK CHARTS COMPLETELY MISS the BIG PICTURE! - 10th Feb 22
5.Will There Be A 2024 US Presidential Election? - 3rd Mar 22
6.Gold and SIlver, Precious Metals Sector Is at a Terrific Buy Spot - 6th Feb 22
7.Why Putin Wants the WHOLE of Ukraine - World War 3 Untended Consequences - 6th Feb 22
8.Dow Stock Market Expected Max Drawdown 2022 - 19th Feb 22
9.Stock Market Calm In the Eye of the Inflation Storm - 4th Mar 22
10.M = F - Everything is Waving! Stock Market Forward Guidance - 7th Mar 22
Last 7 days
Cathie Wood Goes All in on Teladoc, ARKK INSANE Noob Investing Strategy! - 17th May 22
This is Anything but Positive for US Housing Market - 17th May 22
What Should We Do If There Is No Fed Monetary Policy Pivot? - 17th May 22
All Possible Ways to Earn Free Litecoin - 17th May 22
How low Could the Amazon Stock Price Fall? - 16th May 22
Cathy Wood ARKK INSANITY There is NO Coming Back! - 16th May 22
NASDAQ 100 Stock Market LOWER LOWS & LOWER HIGH - 16th May 22
Sanctions, trade wars worsen US inflation - 16th May 22
AI Tech Stocks Earnings BloodBath Buying Opportunity - 14th May 22
Futures Contract – Trading Crude Oil With USO - 14th May 22
How to Get Kaspersky Internet Security for 80% Discount! Do not Pay Renewal Price! - 14th May 22
Sagittarius A* Super Massive Black Hole Monster at Centre of Our Galaxy REVEALED! - 14th May 22
UK Public Debt Smoking Inflation Gun - 13th May 22
What Happens When the Stock Market Dip Keeps Dipping? - 13th May 22
Biden Seeks Inflation Scapegoats; Gold Advocate Wins GOP Primary - 13th May 22
Apple and Microsoft Nuts Are About to CRACK and Send Stock Market Sharply Lower - 12th May 22
The War on Gold Ensures the Dollar’s Downfall - 12th May 22
Crypto Investors Stable Coins TERROR as Terra USD COLLAPSEs towards ZERO, Tether Next! - 11th May 22
INFLATION IS KILLING SILVER - 11th May 22
The Dominant Investing Theme of the Decade - 11th May 22
Is Bitcoin Headed to Zero? - 11th May 22
RECESSION RISKS 2023 - 10th May 22
The Future of the Dollar Seems So Bright It’s Blinding Gold - 10th May 22
Take Advantage When Markets Succumb to Fear - 10th May 22
How to Recognize a Less\ Than Obvious Opportunity (In focus: Corn) - 10th May 22
How to Ensure Financial Stability for Your Family - 10th May 22
The Stocks Stealth BEAR Market - 9th May 22
A Strengthening US Dollar Is A Double-Edged Sword - 9th May 22
Making Wise Investment Decisions - 9th May 22
Ways to legalize a Moving Company - 9th May 22

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market New High and the Lindsay Forecast

Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis May 20, 2014 - 10:48 AM GMT

By: Ed_Carlson

Stock-Markets

Last week's new high in the Dow puts the Lindsay forecast into flux. Long time readers know that the advance from the 2011 Sideways Movement was long ago recognized to be the fly in the ointment for forecasting the end of the bull market.

Quick Review: Sideways Movements (when the basic advance is unable to reach the time span of the 15year interval) are almost always topping formations. Lindsay identified only two instances (over the course of 200 years) which saw advances from this pattern, rather than declines, and this was seen again in 2011. The challenge is in knowing from where to count the next basic advance. After much vacillating, it was decided to count the current basic advance from the low on 12/19/11 due to the description Lindsay gave of the 1926 pattern.


A long basic advance (742-830 days) from 12/19/11 expired on 3/28/14. Last week's new highs disqualifies that count and opens the door for the bull market to become an extended basic advance (929-968 days). That makes the period from July 5 until August 13 the expected kill zone for the bull. All this assumes that 12/19/11 is the correct origin of the basic advance. But what if it's not?

A review of the Sideways Movement in 1880 is complicated by the fact that Lindsay constructed his own index for the 1798-1897 time period and the only record is a hand drawn copy he left in his paper An Aid to Timing. While the reproduction is actually quite impressive given it was hand drawn, he failed to label exact dates; it appears to be a monthly chart. In reading his description, and reviewing the chart, it looks like he may have counted from the low of the basic cycle that time. If we were to count the current basic advance from the low of the basic cycle this time, we would count from the low on 10/4/11.

Counting from 10/4/11 means the basic advance has already become extended. An extended basic advance targets the period for a top from 4/20/14 to 5/29/14. With a Middle Section forecast pointing to a high between Tuesday and Friday last week, this would seemingly be the end of the bull market (if counting from the 10/4/11 low is correct). There are no other Middle Section counts pointing to a high within the April-May time frame.

Figure 1

Figure 2

Download your free copy of An Introduction to Lindsay at Seattle Technical Advisors.

Ed Carlson, author of George Lindsay and the Art of Technical Analysis, and his new book, George Lindsay's An Aid to Timing is an independent trader, consultant, and Chartered Market Technician (CMT) based in Seattle. Carlson manages the website Seattle Technical Advisors.com, where he publishes daily and weekly commentary. He spent twenty years as a stockbroker and holds an M.B.A. from Wichita State University.

© 2014 Copyright Ed Carlson - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in