Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
Stock Market Rescued by the Fed Again? - 24th Sep 21
Are Amazon Best Cheap Memory Foam Mattresses Any good? Bedzonline £69 4ft Small Double ECO Example - 24th Sep 21
Evergrande not a Minsky Moment - 24th Sep 21
UK Energy Firms Scamming Customers Out of Their Best Fixed Rate Gas Tariffs - 23rd Sep 21
Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Should School Children be Jabbed with Pfizer Covid-19 Vaccine To Foster Herd Immunity? - UK - 23rd Sep 21
HOW TO SAVE MONEY ON CAR INSURANCE - 23rd Sep 21
Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
Trading Crude Oil ETFs in Foreign Currencies: What to Focus On - 22nd Sep 21
URGENT - Crypto-trader event - 'Bitcoin... back to $65,000?' - 22nd Sep 21
Stock Market Time to Buy the Dip? - 22nd Sep 21
US Dollar Bears Are Fresh Out of Honey Pots - 22nd Sep 21
MetaTrader 5 Features Every Trader Should Know - 22nd Sep 21
Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment, Tip of the Ice Berg in Financial Crisis 2.0 - 21st Sep 21
The Fed Is Playing The Biggest Game Of Chicken In History - 21st Sep 21
Focus on Stock Market Short-term Cycle - 21st Sep 21
Lands End Cornwall In VR360 - UK Holidays, Staycations - 21st Sep 21
Stock Market FOMO Hits September CRASH Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast 2021 Review - 20th Sep 21
Two Huge, Overlooked Drains on Global Silver Supplies - 20th Sep 21
Gold gets hammered but Copper fails to seize the moment - 20th Sep 21
New arms race and nuclear risks could spell End to the Asian Century - 20th Sep 21
Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast 2021 Review - 19th Sep 21
Dow Forecasting Neural Nets, Crossing the Rubicon With Three High Risk Chinese Tech Stocks - 18th Sep 21
If Post-1971 Monetary System Is Bad, Why Isn’t Gold Higher? - 18th Sep 21
Stock Market Shaking Off the Taper Blues - 18th Sep 21
So... This Happened! One Crypto Goes From "Little-Known" -to- "Top 10" in 6 Weeks - 18th Sep 21
Why a Financial Markets "Panic" May Be Just Around the Corner - 18th Sep 21
An Update on the End of College… and a New Way to Profit - 16th Sep 21
What Kind of Support and Services Can Your Accountant Provide? Your Main Questions Answered - 16th Sep 21
Consistent performance makes waste a good place to buy stocks - 16th Sep 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecasting Neural Nets Pattern Recognition - 15th Sep 21
Eurozone Impact on Gold: The ECB and the Phantom Taper - 15th Sep 21
Fed To Taper into Weakening Economy - 15th Sep 21
Gold Miners: Last of the Summer Wine - 15th Sep 21
How does product development affect a company’s market value? - 15th Sep 21
Types of Investment Property to Become Familiar with - 15th Sep 21
Is This the "Kiss of Death" for the Stocks Bull Market? - 14th Sep 21
Where Are the Stock Market Fireworks? - 14th Sep 21
Play-To-Earn Cryptocurrency Games Gain More and Is Set to Expand - 14th Sep 21
The CashFX TAP Platform - Catering to Bull Investors and Bear Investors Alike - 14th Sep 21
Why every serious investor should be focused on blockchain technology - 13th Sep 21
SPX Base Projection Reached – End of the Line? - 13th Sep 21
There are diverse ways to finance the purchase of a car - 13th Sep 21
6 Tips For Wise Investment - 13th Sep 21 - Mark_Adan

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Silver Price 50 Days and 100 Years

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014 Feb 18, 2014 - 05:08 PM GMT

By: DeviantInvestor

Commodities

Maintain perspective! Skip the hope and hype, the "analysis" from vested interests, and look at facts:

  • Silver closed on February 13, 2014 at $21.42.
  • 50 days earlier, on December 26, 1913, it closed at $19.88
  • That is about 7.7% price increase in 50 calendar days and about 11% above the December low. The silver bulls are celebrating. The silver bears are probably trying to convince themselves that a huge correction is imminent and perhaps silver will plunge to new lows.

  • I personally heard Bo Polny announce on February 8 that gold and silver would have a good week. He was correct! Apparently he knew something that most of us did not.
  • For some historical perspective, silver closed on April 9, 2013 at $27.88.
  • 50 days later on May 29, 2013 it closed at $22.45, a loss of nearly 20%.
  • Prices rise, prices fall. The same is true for housing, the Nasdaq, and Manhattan real estate.

So What? Look at history and facts and ignore the hype.

According to kitco.com, the average annual prices for gold and silver were:

Year Gold Silver
1913 $20.64 $0.58
1971 $40.80 $1.39
2013 $1,411.00 $23.79

Prices have dramatically increased for 100 years since 1913, the birth of the Federal Reserve - our inflation machine. Worse, since Nixon abandoned the partial gold backing for the dollar in 1971, the inflation machine has accelerated. Using Kitco's average annual price data:

  • Since 1913 gold has increased 4.32% per year, compounded annually. Silver has increased 3.78% compounded annually.

  • Since 1971 gold has increased 8.80% per year, compounded annually. Silver has increased 7.00% compounded annually.

  • Since 2001 gold has increased 14.74% per year, compounded annually. Silver has increased 15.17% compounded annually.

In the big picture, gold and silver are increasing in price, along with the prices for crude oil, an average house, gasoline, food, and almost everything we need. Both gold and silver have accelerated their average price increases since 2001, the end of their 20 year bear market.

Official national debt was $2.92 Billion in 1913 and nearly $17,000 Billion in 2013. The compounded annual increase since 1913 has been 9.04% while the increase since 1971 has been 9.31%. National debt increases, on average, quite consistently. Given that consistent exponential increase in national debt, are you surprised that the prices for gold, silver, crude, gasoline, food, and housing have also substantially increased, on average, every year?

The Big Picture

Silver gained 7.7% in 50 days. I think December marked a double bottom in the silver market, but we'll know in a few months. Crashes and large rallies are likely to happen more often in this era of High Frequency Trading and "managed" markets.

The national debt has been increasing, remarkably consistently, for 100 years, for 42 years, and for 6 years. Until monetary systems, administrative policy, and congressional spending practices change (return to fiscal sanity) the national debt, along with most other prices, will continue to increase.

We don't know if silver will continue its rally through next week or next month, but we can legitimately expect that silver prices, along with the national debt, will be substantially higher in 2015, 2016, and 2017!

Examine this graph of silver prices since 2000. Note the following:

  • Log scaling
  • Exponentially increasing prices
  • The support line was touched in December 2013.
  • There is a double bottom in June and December 2013.
  • There is an expanding "megaphone" pattern of prices.
  • Crazy and unlikely as it sounds, silver could spike to $100 in 2016 and not violate a 15 year "megaphone" pattern.
  • MACD (monthly) buy signal in 2008, sell signal in 2011, and probable current buy signal.

So the next time you hear from an analyst that silver is likely to remain under $25 for the next decade or drop to $10, or whatever, remember 100 years of history, 100 years of price increases, and 100 years of official national debt exponentially increasing at 9% per year - compounded each and every year.

My belief is that 100 years of facts are much more relevant than opinions from various people who have a vested interest convincing people that silver and gold are dangerous investments. Examine silver cycles here: Silver: 4 Cycles in 12 Years.

GE Christenson aka Deviant Investor If you would like to be updated on new blog posts, please subscribe to my RSS Feed or e-mail

© 2014 Copyright Deviant Investor - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in