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British Pound GBP Soars to Resistance, Bearish Turn Ahead?

Currencies / British Pound Feb 12, 2014 - 09:50 PM GMT

By: EWI

Currencies

Cable remains near its high and shows no sign of turning lower. Resistance is 1.6624 and the bearish view demands a turn lower from beneath this level. With no signs a turn is underway confidence is low. -- Jim




Feb 12 2014 11:27 AM ET: Cable hasn't eliminated the bearish view but it shows no sign of having peaked either. Unless it turns lower from current levels we'll have to adopt the alternate count and allow for a new high above 1.6668. -- Jim

Feb 12 2014 9:34 AM ET: Cables recovery has far exceeded expectations. As a result, any forecast is considered low confidence. There are better opportunities elsewhere.

That said, this chart shows a couple possibilities. The bearish one is shown with the data as it adheres to the strong dollar outlook. But it has its problems. First and foremost, the small degree wave ((1)) and ((2)) are far larger than the larger degree first and second waves. This is not a rule violation but it does pressure the concept of "the right look." For that reason an alternate is shown. It recognizes that the decline from 1.6668 is in three waves and could be a correction. Wave ((c)) traveled 1.618 times the distance covered in wave ((a)) and that's the second most common relationship after equality. -- Jim

Feb 12 2014 6:45 AM ET: The firmer than expected support seen here for the cable needs close attention. Although this upward movement can still be regarded as the final rise of a circled second wave correction, it must end fairly soon (preferably under a projected 0.786 retracement level at 1.6579) and give way to an impulsive decline back under 1.6425 for our still bearish view in order to remain reasonably plausible. Otherwise, a more bullish count would have to be considered if a continued climb through 1.6579 and on toward the recent top at 1.6668 was observed instead. John Hunter

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