We can say with confidence that we anticipated the recent weakness of the Japanese yen. But at current levels, it makes sense to reevaluate the situation.

The steepness of the yen rally was one reason we expected the yen was due for a breather. The other reason: a sort of refreshed wave of risk-appetite. Granted investors appetite for risky investments has in no way, shape or form returned to excessive, pre-credit crunch levels. But we did begin to see some subprime- and credit-induced worry subside.

So we ask if it's a coincidence that the Japanese yen (a decent measure of risk-appetite) is finding key support around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at the same time U.S. stocks (another major gauge of risk-taking) are butting their head on overhead resistance …

We think not.

Is it time for a renewed sense of concern to descend upon the markets? Or are investors growing hungrier for risk?

Regards,

Jack Crooks

Black Swan Capital LLC

http://www.blackswantrading.com/

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