Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
All Measures to Combat Global Warming Are Smoke and Mirrors! - 18th Apr 24
Cisco Then vs. Nvidia Now - 18th Apr 24
Is the Biden Administration Trying To Destroy the Dollar? - 18th Apr 24
S&P Stock Market Trend Forecast to Dec 2024 - 16th Apr 24
No Deposit Bonuses: Boost Your Finances - 16th Apr 24
Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - 8th Apr 24
Gold Is Rallying Again, But Silver Could Get REALLY Interesting - 8th Apr 24
Media Elite Belittle Inflation Struggles of Ordinary Americans - 8th Apr 24
Profit from the Roaring AI 2020's Tech Stocks Economic Boom - 8th Apr 24
Stock Market Election Year Five Nights at Freddy's - 7th Apr 24
It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- 7th Apr 24
AI Revolution and NVDA: Why Tough Going May Be Ahead - 7th Apr 24
Hidden cost of US homeownership just saw its biggest spike in 5 years - 7th Apr 24
What Happens To Gold Price If The Fed Doesn’t Cut Rates? - 7th Apr 24
The Fed is becoming increasingly divided on interest rates - 7th Apr 24
The Evils of Paper Money Have no End - 7th Apr 24
Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - 3rd Apr 24
Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend - 2nd Apr 24
Dow Stock Market Annual Percent Change Analysis 2024 - 2nd Apr 24
Bitcoin S&P Pattern - 31st Mar 24
S&P Stock Market Correlating Seasonal Swings - 31st Mar 24
S&P SEASONAL ANALYSIS - 31st Mar 24
Here's a Dirty Little Secret: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Is Still Loose - 31st Mar 24
Tandem Chairman Paul Pester on Fintech, AI, and the Future of Banking in the UK - 31st Mar 24
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Buy Oil Stocks Shielded from Middle East Uncertainty

Commodities / Oil Companies Jan 13, 2014 - 03:10 PM GMT

By: Submissions

Commodities

Richard Cox writes: As most investors know, the seemingly constant threat of conflict in the Middle East has the ability to create drastic volatility in oil.  The most recent example of this has been seen in Syria, which only accounts for 0.5% of world oil production (500,000 barrels per day).  But the possibility of a disruptive chain reaction has been enough to put markets on edge and bring increased volatility to oil and most energy-related assets.  Syria’s close ties with Iran, the possibility of a civil war in Iraq, and near-constant turmoil in Egypt mean that economic sanctions could be seen at any time. 


“If this occurred,” said Sandip Sekhon, markets analyst at AlphaForecast.com,  “the impact would be much more significant as these regions account for a larger percentage of daily oil production -- 3.5 million barrels.”  For investors with a lower risk tolerance, it makes sense to take positions in assets that are able perform in a stable fashion in either scenario (heightened conflict or relative peace).  Those looking to gain exposure to oil might see this as a near impossibility but there are stocks that are largely sheltered from the volatile political environment in the Middle East.  Here are two strong selections that are also accompanied by hefty dividends, making these stocks able to generate gains even if oil prices were to take a tumble from their elevated levels. 

Alternatives in the Oil Space

First, we look at French company Total (TOT), which is the fifth-largest publicly traded oil and gas producer in the world.  Market valuations for this stock tend to trade in-line with the dominant trends seen in oil prices, so it is not surprising that the stock has more higher by more than 10% year-to-date.  Recent agreements with China Petroleum to develop resource sites in Tajikistan put the company in a better position to capitalize on rising demand in Asia’s emerging economies.  By 2020, Chinese oil imports are expected to rise above $500 billion annually, which would make it the world’s largest market.  Total’s diversified portfolio includes resources in Australia and Africa, along with its recent purchases in Egypt. 

But the company’s total exposure to volatile regions is relatively insignificant at around 8%, and when we consider the strong dividend yield (nearly 5.5%), the company is a good candidate for gaining protected exposure to oil markets.  Total is one of the industry leaders in extracting oil cheaply and commanding high prices for its products, which is reflected in last year’s 8% sales growth ($266 billion in 2012) and 2.4% rise in operating income.  Total expects to see annual production to increase by 3% until 2015, and output levels to reach 3 million barrels per day by 2017. 

Next, we look at Enerplus (ERF), which is the biggest North American oil and natural gas income fund.  Based in Calgary, Enerplus invests in mature development properties in Western Canada and has seen sharp rallies since hitting its lows in April.  This puts the company in a strong position as one of the biggest sources of U.S. oil imports.  In 2012, 2.8 million barrels of Canadian oil were shipped to the U.S., which was roughly twice the amount exported by Saudi Arabia.  The company’s earnings report for the second quarter showed that annualized production levels grew by 10%, putting the company on a solid path to to hit stock valuations above $20 before the end of the year.  This, along with its excellent dividend yield (nearly 6.4%), make the stock a great way of gaining oil exposure without the added risk of further turmoil in the Middle East.

Richard Cox is a university teacher in international trade and finance. Lessons in macroeconomics and price behavior in equity markets. He writes for MarketBulls.net, BinaryOptionShark.com,TheStreetSeeking Alpha, and the Motley Fool.Investing strategies in these articles are based on technical and fundamental analysis of all the major asset classes (stock indices, currencies, and commodities). Trade ideas are generally suggestive of time horizons of one to six months.

© Copyright Richard Cox 2014

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in