Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Silver, Gold and Miners ETF Trading Strategy

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Nov 25, 2013 - 09:23 AM GMT

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Commodities

Precious Metals ETF Trading: It's been a week since my last gold & silver report which I took a lot of heat because of my bearish outlook. Friday's closing price has this sector trading precariously close to a major sell off if it's not already started.

On a percentage bases I feel precious metals mining stocks as whole will be selling at a sharp discount in another week or three. ETF funds like the GDX, GDXJ and SIL have the most downside potential. The amount of emails I received from followers of those who have been buying more precious metals and gold stocks as price continues to fall was mind blowing.


If precious metals continue to fall on Monday and Tuesday of this week selling volume should spike as protective stops will be getting run and the individuals who are underwater with a large percentage of their portfolio in the precious metals sector could start getting margin calls and cause another washout, spike low similar to what we saw in 2008.

ETF Trading Charts:

Below are updated with Friday's closing prices showing technical breakdowns across the board..

Weekly Gold Chart

Weekly Silver Chart

Market Vectors Gold Miners Monthly Chart

Sweet & Sour ETF Trading Analysis:

Just to make things a little more interesting I would like to point out a couple other types of analysis.

Central Fund of Canada Monthly Chart

Sweet: Through analysis of the CEF Central Fund of Canada Ltd. chart and evaluation it is clear precious metals are falling out of favor at an increased rate. This fund owns physical gold and silver bullion and investors are fleeing the fund so fast that it is now trading at a 7% discount of its asset value. While this may not seem good for metals I see it as a positive.

When everyone is running for one door after an extended moves has already taken place it tends to act as a contrarian indicator. Knowing that some of the largest percent moves in a trend takes place before reversing, I see this information as an early warning that a bottom will soon be put in place.

Sour: While the USD index has not been much help compared to 2012, I feel as though a rising dollar is likely to unfold for a couple weeks which may lend a hand to pulling the precious metals sector down.

US Dollar Daily Chart

Precious Metals ETF Trading Conclusion:

While I am starting to get bullish for a long term investment in precious metals I know that a bottom has likely not yet been made. But even if it has been, it is better to buy during a basing pattern or breakout to the upside from a basing pattern than to be underwater with a position for an extended period of time along with all the other negatives that come along with it.

I do like the idea of CEF as a long term investment when I feel the time is right. I have invested and traded it many times in the past. The key to trading the fund is to be sure you are buying it at fair value or a discount from the net asset value. You do not want to be buying it when it is trading at a 5-7% premium. The fund owns both gold and silver making it a simple diversified precious metals play.

If you would like to keep up to date on market trends and trade ideas be sure to join my newsletter at http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com

By Chris Vermeulen
Please visit my website for more information. http://www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen is Founder of the popular trading site TheGoldAndOilGuy.com.  There he shares his highly successful, low-risk trading method.  For 7 years Chris has been a leader in teaching others to skillfully trade in gold, oil, and silver in both bull and bear markets.  Subscribers to his service depend on Chris' uniquely consistent investment opportunities that carry exceptionally low risk and high return.

This article is intended solely for information purposes. The opinions are those of the author only. Please conduct further research and consult your financial advisor before making any investment/trading decision. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.

Chris Vermeulen Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in