Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Get Ready for Inflation Mega-trend to Surge 2021 - 4th Mar 21
Stocks, Gold – Rebound or Dead Cat Bounce? - 4th Mar 21
The Top Technologies That Are Transforming the Casino Industry - 4th Mar 21
How to Get RICH Crypto Mining Bitcoin, Ethereum With NiceHash - 4th Mar 21
Coronavirus Pandemic Vaccines Indicator Current State - 3rd Mar 21
AI Tech Stocks Investing 2021 Buy Ratings, Levels and Valuations Explained - 3rd Mar 21
Stock Market Bull Trend in Jeopardy - 3rd Mar 21
New Global Reserve Currency? - 3rd Mar 21
Gold To Monetary Base Ratio Says No Hyperinflation - 3rd Mar 21
US Fed Grilled about Its Unsound Currency, Digital Currency Schemes - 3rd Mar 21
The Case Against Inflation - 3rd Mar 21
How to Start Crypto Mining Bitcoins, Ethereum with Your Desktop PC, Laptop with NiceHash - 3rd Mar 21
AI Tech Stocks Investing Portfolio Buying Levels and Valuations 2021 Explained - 2nd Mar 21
There’s A “Chip” Shortage: And TSMC Holds All The Cards - 2nd Mar 21
Why now might be a good time to buy gold and gold juniors - 2nd Mar 21
Silver Is Close To Something Big - 2nd Mar 21
Bitcoin: Let's Put 2 Heart-Pounding Price Drops into Perspective - 2nd Mar 21
Gold Stocks Spring Rally 2021 - 2nd Mar 21
US Housing Market Trend Forecast 2021 - 2nd Mar 21
Covid-19 Vaccinations US House Prices Trend Indicator 2021 - 2nd Mar 21
How blockchain technology will change the online casino - 2nd Mar 21
How Much PC RAM Memory is Good in 2021, 16gb, 32gb or 64gb? - 2nd Mar 21
US Housing Market House Prices Momentum Analysis - 26th Feb 21
FOMC Minutes Disappoint Gold Bulls - 26th Feb 21
Kiss of Life for Gold - 26th Feb 21
Congress May Increase The Moral Hazard Building In The Stock Market - 26th Feb 21
The “Oil Of The Future” Is Set To Soar In 2021 - 26th Feb 21
The Everything Stock Market Rally Continues - 25th Feb 21
Vaccine inequality: A new beginning or another missed opportunity? - 25th Feb 21
What's Next Move For Silver, Gold? Follow US Treasuries and Commodities To Find Out - 25th Feb 21
Warren Buffett Buys a Copper Stock! - 25th Feb 21
Work From Home Inflationary US House Prices BOOM! - 25th Feb 21
Man Takes First Steps Towards Colonising Mars - Nasa Perseverance Rover in Jezero Crater - 25th Feb 21
Musk, Bezos And Cook Are Rushing To Lock In New Lithium Supply - 25th Feb 21
US Debt and Yield Curve (Spread between 2 year and 10 year US bonds) - 24th Feb 21
Should You Buy a Landrover Discovery Sport in 2021? - 24th Feb 21
US Housing Market 2021 and the Inflation Mega-trend - QE4EVER! - 24th Feb 21
M&A Most Commonly Used Software - 24th Feb 21
Is More Stock Market Correction Needed? - 24th Feb 21
VUZE XR Camera 180 3D VR Example Footage Video Image quality - 24th Feb 21
How to Protect Your Positions From A Stock Market Sell-Off Using Options - 24th Feb 21
Why Isn’t Retail Demand for Silver Pushing Up Prices? - 24th Feb 21
2 Stocks That Could Win Big In The Trillion Dollar Battery War - 24th Feb 21
US Economic Trends - GDP, Inflation and Unemployment Impact on House Prices 2021 - 23rd Feb 21
Why the Sky Is Not Falling in Precious Metals - 23rd Feb 21
7 Things Every Businessman Should Know - 23rd Feb 21
For Stocks, has the “Rational Bubble” Popped? - 23rd Feb 21
Will Biden Overheat the Economy and Gold? - 23rd Feb 21
Precious Metals Under Seige? - 23rd Feb 21
US House Prices Trend Forecast Review - 23rd Feb 21
Lithium Prices Soar As Tesla, Apple And Google Fight For Supply - 23rd Feb 21
Stock Markets Discounting Post Covid Economic Boom - 22nd Feb 21
Economics Is Why Vaccination Is So Hard - 22nd Feb 21
Pivotal Session In Stocks Bull Bear Battle - 22nd Feb 21
Gold’s Downtrend: Is This Just the Beginning? - 22nd Feb 21
The Most Exciting Commodities Play Of 2021? - 22nd Feb 21
How to Test NEW and Used GPU, and Benchmark to Make sure it is Working Properly - 22nd Feb 21
US House Prices Vaccinations Indicator - 21st Feb 21
S&P 500 Correction – No Need to Hold Onto Your Hat - 21st Feb 21
Gold Setting Up Major Bottom So Could We See A Breakout Rally Begin Soon? - 21st Feb 21
Owning Real Assets Amid Surreal Financial Markets - 21st Feb 21
Great Investment Ideas For 2021 - 21st Feb 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Where Are We In the Stocks Secular Bear Market 2013?

Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market Jan 08, 2013 - 12:47 PM GMT

By: Sy_Harding


It seems to only be when the market is in a cyclical bear market that the financial media remembers that a secular bear market began in 2000.

That is completely forgotten once a cyclical bull market, like the one we’re currently enjoying, comes along within the secular bear.

As the market again approaches its previous peaks of 2000 and 2007 this might be a more helpful time to remember that we are in a secular bear market, which requires an entirely different approach to investing.

First a reminder that a secular bull market is a long-term uptrend. Cyclical bear markets take place within it, but when they end, the long-term uptrend resumes to ever higher highs. They are wonderful times for buy & hold investors, since the market always comes back and goes on to those ever higher highs.

A secular bear market is a long-term sideways to down trend, in which periodic cyclical bull markets take place that carry the market up to previous peaks, but then the next cyclical bear market arrives that takes the gains away. Obviously a disastrous time for buy & hold investing, and a great period for market-timing.

The last 110 years can be clearly divided into three completed secular bull markets, and three completed secular bear markets, with a fourth secular bear currently underway since 2000.

The secular bear market that began in 2000 continues to track similarly to the secular bear markets of 1900-21, and 1966-82.

Here’s what we’ve been reminding our subscribers of lately, as the favorable season continues and we remain on a buy signal.

So far, we’ve seen the 13-year secular bear that began in 2000 follow the same typical pattern of previous secular bears.

And we’re well aware of the surrounding conditions that have placed similar severe imbalances on the economy as in those previous periods; the 2000-2002 market collapse, terrorist attacks, Iraq and Afghanistan wars, easy money policies, etc., which allowed only a market recovery back to the 2000 peak in 2007, when the housing bubble burst and led to the near total financial system collapse in 2008.

As in the 1970’s, it is taking unusual stimulus measures, record budget deficits and debt loads, to recover from the disastrous decade.

And though each step has resulted in slow recovery, it will take at least one more setback for the economy and market (probably caused by austerity measures to tackle the debt problem), before the secular bear ends.

We need to be aware of that as we continue to navigate the cyclical bull market within the secular bear market.

As in the 1970’s, the next cyclical bear is not likely to be as severe as the last two, and it will likely finally end the secular bear market, and usher in the next secular bull market.

And that next secular bull market will result in the Dow eventually reaching 50,000 and beyond, that many were predicting in 1999 was just ahead, (while in my 1999 book Riding the Bear – How to Prosper in the Coming Bear Market I was predicting that the worst bear market since the 1929 crash was right around the corner).

How can we be sure that once this secular bear ends and the next secular bull market begins the Dow will soar to 50,000 and above? Because in each of the secular bull markets of the last 110 years, the Dow has gained 500% to 1000%.

The problem for investors will be the number who have not handled the secular bear market well, have sworn off the market for good, are no longer paying attention, and will not be enticed to participate again until the next secular bull market has been underway for years and the easiest money has already been made. That is the history of investor behavior in the previous secular bear markets.

Sy Harding was just named by Timer Digest as #1 Gold Timer for 2012 (Gold Timer of the Year), and #2 Long-Term Stock Market Timer for 2012.

Sy Harding is president of Asset Management Research Corp., and editor of the free market blog Street Smart Post.

© 2013 Copyright Sy Harding- All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Sy Harding Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules