Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
US Housing Market House Prices Momentum Analysis - 26th Feb 21
FOMC Minutes Disappoint Gold Bulls - 26th Feb 21
Kiss of Life for Gold - 26th Feb 21
Congress May Increase The Moral Hazard Building In The Stock Market - 26th Feb 21
The “Oil Of The Future” Is Set To Soar In 2021 - 26th Feb 21
The Everything Stock Market Rally Continues - 25th Feb 21
Vaccine inequality: A new beginning or another missed opportunity? - 25th Feb 21
What's Next Move For Silver, Gold? Follow US Treasuries and Commodities To Find Out - 25th Feb 21
Warren Buffett Buys a Copper Stock! - 25th Feb 21
Work From Home Inflationary US House Prices BOOM! - 25th Feb 21
Man Takes First Steps Towards Colonising Mars - Nasa Perseverance Rover in Jezero Crater - 25th Feb 21
Musk, Bezos And Cook Are Rushing To Lock In New Lithium Supply - 25th Feb 21
US Debt and Yield Curve (Spread between 2 year and 10 year US bonds) - 24th Feb 21
Should You Buy a Landrover Discovery Sport in 2021? - 24th Feb 21
US Housing Market 2021 and the Inflation Mega-trend - QE4EVER! - 24th Feb 21
M&A Most Commonly Used Software - 24th Feb 21
Is More Stock Market Correction Needed? - 24th Feb 21
VUZE XR Camera 180 3D VR Example Footage Video Image quality - 24th Feb 21
How to Protect Your Positions From A Stock Market Sell-Off Using Options - 24th Feb 21
Why Isn’t Retail Demand for Silver Pushing Up Prices? - 24th Feb 21
2 Stocks That Could Win Big In The Trillion Dollar Battery War - 24th Feb 21
US Economic Trends - GDP, Inflation and Unemployment Impact on House Prices 2021 - 23rd Feb 21
Why the Sky Is Not Falling in Precious Metals - 23rd Feb 21
7 Things Every Businessman Should Know - 23rd Feb 21
For Stocks, has the “Rational Bubble” Popped? - 23rd Feb 21
Will Biden Overheat the Economy and Gold? - 23rd Feb 21
Precious Metals Under Seige? - 23rd Feb 21
US House Prices Trend Forecast Review - 23rd Feb 21
Lithium Prices Soar As Tesla, Apple And Google Fight For Supply - 23rd Feb 21
Stock Markets Discounting Post Covid Economic Boom - 22nd Feb 21
Economics Is Why Vaccination Is So Hard - 22nd Feb 21
Pivotal Session In Stocks Bull Bear Battle - 22nd Feb 21
Gold’s Downtrend: Is This Just the Beginning? - 22nd Feb 21
The Most Exciting Commodities Play Of 2021? - 22nd Feb 21
How to Test NEW and Used GPU, and Benchmark to Make sure it is Working Properly - 22nd Feb 21
US House Prices Vaccinations Indicator - 21st Feb 21
S&P 500 Correction – No Need to Hold Onto Your Hat - 21st Feb 21
Gold Setting Up Major Bottom So Could We See A Breakout Rally Begin Soon? - 21st Feb 21
Owning Real Assets Amid Surreal Financial Markets - 21st Feb 21
Great Investment Ideas For 2021 - 21st Feb 21
US House Prices Momentum Analysis - 20th Feb 21
The Most Important Chart in Housing Right Now - 20th Feb 21
Gold Is the Ultimate Reserve Asset - 20th Feb 21
Is That the S&P 500 And Gold Correction Finally? - 20th Feb 21
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD - 20th Feb 21
The Stock Market Big Picture - 19th Feb 21
Could Silver "Do a Palladium"? - 19th Feb 21
Three More Reasons We Love To Trade Options! - 19th Feb 21
Here’s What’s Eating Away at Gold - 19th Feb 21
Stock Market March Melt-Up Madness - 19th Feb 21
Land Rover Discovery Sport Extreme Ice and Snow vs Windscreen Wipers Test - 19th Feb 21
Real Reason Why Black and Asian BAME are NOT Getting Vaccinated - NHS Covid-19 Vaccinations - 19th Feb 21
New BNPL Regulations Leave Zilch Leading the Way - 19th Feb 21
Work From Home Inflationary House Prices BOOM! - 18th Feb 21
Why This "Excellent" Stock Market Indicator Should Be on Your Radar Screen Now - 18th Feb 21
The Commodity Cycle - 18th Feb 21
Silver Backwardation and Other Evidence of a Silver Supply Squeeze - 18th Feb 21
Why I’m Avoiding These “Bottle Rocket” Stocks Like GameStop - 18th Feb 21
S&P 500 Correction Delayed Again While Silver Runs - 18th Feb 21
Silver Prices Are About to Explode as Stars are Lining up Like Never Before! - 18th Feb 21
Cannabis, Alternative Agra, Mushrooms, and Cryptos – Everything ALT is HOT - 18th Feb 21
Crypto Mining Craze, How We Mined 6 Bitcoins with a PS4 Gaming Console - 18th Feb 21
Stock Market Trend Forecasts Analysis Review - 17th Feb 21
Vaccine Nationalism Is a Multilateral, Neocolonial Failure - 17th Feb 21
First year of a Stocks bull market, or End of a Bubble? - 17th Feb 21
5 Reasons Why People Prefer to Trade Options Over Stocks - 17th Feb 21
The Gold & Gold Stock Corrections Are Normal - 17th Feb 21
WARNING Oculus Quest 2 Update v25 BROKE My VR Headset! - 17th Feb 21
UK Covid-19 Parks PACKED During Lockdown Despite "Stay at Home" Message - Endcliffe Park Sheffield - 17th Feb 21
How to Invest in ETFs in the UK - 17th Feb 21
Real Reason Why Black and Asian Ethnic minorities are NOT Getting Vaccinated - NHS Covid-19 Vaccinations - 16th Feb 21
THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND QE4EVER! - 16th Feb 21
Gold / Silver: What This "Large Non-Confirmation" May Mean - 16th Feb 21
Major Optimism for Platinum, Silver, and Copper - 16th Feb 21
S&P 500 Correction Looming, Just as in Gold – Or Not? - 16th Feb 21
Stock Market Last pull-back before intermediate top? - 16th Feb 21
GAMESTOP MANIA BUBBLE BURSTS! Investing Newbs Pump and Dump Roller coaster Ride - 16th Feb 21
Thinking About Starting to Trade This Year? Here Are Some Things to Keep in Mind - 16th Feb 21
US House Prices Real Estate Trend Forecast Review - 15th Feb 21
Will Tesla Charge Gold With Energy? - 15th Feb 21
Feeling the Growing Heat and Tensions in Stocks? - 15th Feb 21
Morgan Stanley Warns Gasoline Industry Is About to Become Totally Worthless - 15th Feb 21
Debts Lift Gold - Precious Metal Prices Will Rise on a Deluge of Red Ink - 15th Feb 21
Platinum Begins Big Breakout Rally - 15th Feb 21
How to Change Car Battery Without Losing Power, Memory, Radio Code Settings - 15th Feb 21
Five reasons why a financial advisor can make a big difference to your small business - 15th Feb 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Stock Market Rally Peak Almost, But Not There Yet

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013 Jan 06, 2013 - 01:04 PM GMT

By: WavePatternTraders

Stock-Markets

Following on from last week's report, we are within striking distance of the Sept 2012 highs on the SPX and ES.

There were many other markets that made impressive moves, the Russell 2000 making new all time highs as did the little followed value line index.

To bullish traders and Elliotticians it should have come as no surprise, if you studied price long enough and remain non-biased and accept what you see, then the upside move was virtually guaranteed, but the bears once again found out the hard way of fighting price and ignoring what price suggested.


Let me make one point here, I am fully aware of the economic situations around the world, I am not naive enough to think these things don't matter, but when it come to actual trading of the markets, the ONLY THING THAT PAYS IS PRICE.

You can argue the bad funnymentals to you are blue in the face, but that does not change a thing if price wants to go higher.

If you fight the market you lose money. It's as simple as that, as this week many bears found out.

It's not about being a bull or bear, it's about being on the right side of the market, looking at what price suggests and sticking with the trend.

If price reverses and shows me a clear indication that it's a bearish market, I am ready to switch and follow the market lower, but whilst I have unfinished targets on the upside and patterns that don't look complete I can only follow what my long terms ideas suggest, or until such a time the market negates the ideas.

I see many still in disbelief at the way this market comes charging higher and many bears now "throwing in the towel".

ES

But whilst we are close to my long standing targets we are not there yet, and some other markets like the SPX, DOW and COMPQ are still far behind those Sept 2012 highs, so I am still going to continue to look higher.

However short term from the 1383ES lows, it appears we could be ready to pullback in a correction to correct some of the advance.

It's come a long way in a short period a time and it would not be unreasonable to expect a pullback and give the chance for the market to take a breather, we appear to be in some sort of wedge, so I suspect an ending diagonal, and once its finished I am then looking for a move lower in 3 waves, potentially targeting towards the 1430ES area, but I will have a better idea if any decline starts earlier next week.

ES

NDX

The NDX appears to have started already, as we saw some weakness between the NQ and SPX, and this was one of the better ideas I noticed late last week and posted the setup for members to look to take advantage on the short side as it looked a much better wave count than the other markets.

NDX

As the NDX was pulling back the SPX still found some strength to push to a new high on Friday, but with the non-confirmation I suspect the NDX is suggesting that we are going to pullback and correct some of last week's advance.

As long as any decline is a corrective move then it will offer the bulls a chance to get long or add to long positions for a move higher.

NDX

Currently the preferred idea is still to buy pullbacks as long as they remain within the context of the daily and weekly ideas we are working with, so as the market remains firmly bullish, traders should continue to respect the larger trend until we see evidence to suggest caution on the long side, although I am expecting a pullback shortly as the NDX with a clear 5 wave rally looks to be the leader on a correction.

SPX

SPX

The SPX main count suggests a potential ending diagonal/bearish wedge and it's been my main idea for about 3 months now, since I was 99.9% sure the decline from the Sept-Nov 2012 was a 3 wave decline it fit perfectly for a 4th wave of an ending diagonal, so the idea shown needs a move above 1474SPX at minimum, but I am looking for move into the 1480-1500SPX area, although once a new high is seen I am on high alert for any potential reversal.

Bull Vs Bear case

Now some Elliotticians have a wave count that suggest the market is about to launch into a parabolic blow off in some sort of 3rd wave move to the upside, whilst I can't actually negate that idea, I will try to show some evidence as to why I think the market is working the preferred idea as shown above.

If you look around some major stocks, there is some evidence to suggest that they are making some important top and based upon my interpretation of their respective Elliott Wave counts, I have concluded that I think they will make important tops along with the US markets.

XOM (Exxon)

With this stock we can see that it has a 5 wave advance into 2008 highs, and a clear 3 wave decline, which I have labeled wave A, but the advance from the $55.89 lows appears to be a 3 wave move as well, with a small new high it also looks to be ending a smaller wedge shape for wave [C] of a larger B.

With a 3 wave decline and a 3 wave advance, the most obvious pattern to an Elliottician is a 3-3-5 flat, so we are missing the 5 wave leg for wave C, which suggests a move back to move back under $55.89.

The most important part of what is going on with this stock at the moment is the potential for a small wedge shape what Elliotticians call an ending diagonal.

SRCL (Stericycle)

From its IPO it appears this is finishing a larger 5 wave advance and if you look closer it looks like a wedge and the same idea and pattern as XOM and the SPX etc, that of an ending diagonal, although this looks almost completed with a minor new high needed, I am watching closely to suggest to members that they can looking to sell short this stock, or buy puts, as once it reverses I am expecting a strong reversal lower, but this is a monthly chart, so we need to get our timing correct 1st, the potential for a strong reversal is HUGE.

CRM (salesforce.com)

An interesting stock that I am watching is CRM, it was bought to my attention by a member and I was asked to take a look to see if I could identity a pattern for a trade setup.

I was pleasantly surprised as from its IPO it looks like a larger 5 wave pattern, the most interesting thing to note is the large triangle for a 4th wave.

If you know anything about Elliott Wave you will note that triangles most commonly occur in the 4th wave positions, so with the triangle thrust this stock I suspect is in its final stages of the move that started from its IPO and a major top setting up.

All 3 of those stocks are suggesting important inflection points, and that coupled with the look of the US markets suggest in the authors opinion that US stocks and the US markets are nearing an important and potential major inflection point, hence why I suspect that the markets are nearing a major topping area and not setting up for a strong new bull cycle.

That's just 3 stocks I am watching there are about 10 others I am also watching with equally good ideas and members that are interested in those stocks are sure to find themselves with plenty of opportunities in 2013.

If you are interested in following these ideas and a whole lot more, then take a test drive and sign up for the 4 week free trial, with price starting to enter some key and critical price zones I am confident that 2013 will be a great year for volatility and some great ideas and setups to be traded.

Until next time

Have a profitable week ahead.

Click here to become a member

You can also follow us on twitter

What do we offer?

Short and long term analysis on US and European markets, various major FX pairs, commodities from Gold and silver to markets like natural gas.

Daily analysis on where I think the market is going with key support and resistance areas, we move and adjust as the market adjusts.

A chat room where members can discuss ideas with me or other members.

Members get to know who is moving the markets in the S&P pits*

*I have permission to post comments from the audio I hear from the S&P pits.

If you looking for quality analysis from someone that actually looks at multiple charts and works hard at providing members information to stay on the right side of the trends and making $$$, why not give the site a trial.

If any of the readers want to see this article in a PDF format.

Please send an e-mail to Enquires@wavepatterntraders.com

Please put in the header PDF, or make it known that you want to be added to the mailing list for any future articles.

Or if you have any questions about becoming a member, please use the email address above.

If you like what you see, or want to see more of my work, then please sign up for the 4 week trial.

This article is just a small portion of the markets I follow.

I cover many markets, from FX to US equities, right the way through to commodities.

If I have the data I am more than willing to offer requests to members.

Currently new members can sign up for a 4 week free trial to test drive the site, and see if my work can help in your trading and if it meets your requirements.

If you don't like what you see, then drop me an email within the 1st 4 weeks from when you join, and ask for a no questions refund.

You simply have nothing to lose.

By Jason Soni AKA Nouf

© 2012 Copyright Jason Soni AKA Nouf - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

WavePatternTraders Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules