Most Popular
1. THE INFLATION MONSTER is Forecasting RECESSION - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Why APPLE Could CRASH the Stock Market! - Nadeem_Walayat
3.The Stocks Stealth BEAR Market - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Inflation, Commodities and Interest Rates : Paradigm Shifts in Macrotrends - Rambus_Chartology
5.Stock Market in the Eye of the Storm, Visualising AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI Tech Stocks Earnings BloodBath Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
7.PPT HALTS STOCK MARKET CRASH ahead of Fed May Interest Rate Hike Meeting - Nadeem_Walayat
8.50 Small Cap Growth Stocks Analysis to CAPITALISE on the Stock Market Inflation -Nadeem_Walayat
9.WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO INVEST IN STOCKS AND HOUSING MARKET - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Apple and Microsoft Nuts Are About to CRACK and Send Stock Market Sharply Lower - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Everyone and their Grandma is Expecting a Big Stocks Bear Market Rally - 23rd June 22
The Fed’s Hawkish Bite Left Its Mark on the S&P 500 Stocks - 23rd June 22
No Dodging the Stock Market Bullet - 23rd June 22
How To Set Up A Business To Better Manage In The Free Market - 23rd June 22
Why Are Precious Metals Considered A Good Investment? Find Out Here - 23rd June 22
UK House Prices and the Inflation Mega-trend - 22nd June 22
Sportsbook Betting Reviews: How to Choose a Sportsbook- 22nd June 22
Looking to buy Cannabis Stocks? - 22nd June 22
UK House Prices Momentum Forecast - 21st June 22
The Fed is Incompetent - Beware the Dancing Market Puppet - 21st June 22
US Economy Headed for a Hard Landing - 21st June 22
How to Invest in EU - New Opportunities Uncovered - 21st June 22
How To Protect Your Assets During Inflation - 21st June 22
AI Tech Stocks Current State, Is AMAZON a Dying Tech Giant? - 20th June 22
Gold/Gold miners fundamental checkup - 20th June 22
Personal Finance Tips: How To Get Out Of A Tough Financial Situation - 20th June 22
UK House Prices Relative to GDP Growth - 19th June 22
Will Global Markets Be Pushed Deeper Into Crisis Event By The US Fed? - 19th June 22
Useful Things You Need To Know About Tweezer Top Candlestick Pattern - 19th June 22
UK House Prices Real Terms Sustainable Trend - 17th June 22
Why I’m buying the “new” value stocks… - 17th June 22
Optimize Benefits from R&D in Software Product Development with an R&D Tax Credit Software - 17th June 22
Want To Save On Your Business Energy? Here Are Some Helpful Tips - 17th June 22
State of the Stocks Bear Market - 15th June 22
The Gold Market Is Getting Ready for Another Interest Rate Hike - 15th June 22
The Dow Industrials’ Big 8-Wave Cycle is Incomplete - 15th June 22
7 Things You Need to Know About Finances - 15th June 22
Dow Stocks Bear Market Forecast Trend Trajectory - 13th June 22
Why Putin has KILLED Russia - 12th June 22
Trading the Calm Before the Stock Market Storm – Consider Putting On A Long Strangle - 12th June 22
Shrinkflation! - 12th June 22
6 Useful Tips To Help You Create A Good Marketing Strategy - 12th June 22
Big Inflation Will Spur Gold Price - 11th June 22
Economic "Hurricane": Here's a Take on a Bank CEO's Warning - 11th June 22
Axie Infinity (AXS)Mmade a lot of People Rich… Temporarily, What We Learned - 11th June 22
The CRACK UP BOOM! Implications for Stocks, Housing. and Commodities, Silver Potential - 10th June 22

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Financial Markets Second Shoe About to Drop? 

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012 Nov 15, 2012 - 05:48 AM GMT

By: Brian_Bloom

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe first shoe dropped to the floor in September 2008. With heroic obtuseness regarding the causes, the world’s central bankers flooded the financial markets with liquidity.  Arguably, all that this achieved was a type of Indian summer.  It seems that we are about to experience the consequences of that misguided behaviour.  There is no such thing as a free lunch. One cannot create wealth out of thin air by printing money.

The four charts below seem to be pointing to an important inflexion point. The financial markets appear to be on the verge of panic.


Chart 1 is of the S&P 1200 global industrial index. It is just peeping below its 40 week MA and its rising trendline

Chart #1 – S&P 1200 Global Industrial Index

Chart #2 is of the US SPX. It broke down today. The Israeli attack on Hamas was probably the catalyst – but the direction of the break was informative.  Clearly, the markets are predisposed to be bearish

Chart #2 – Standard & Poor 500 Industrial Index

Chart #3  is of the gold price, but with Fibonacci support and resistance lines drawn in

Chart # 3 – Gold Price with Fibonacci support and resistance levels

If the gold price is to break up it will likely scream up. However, based on the “three strike” principle, it has already tried three times to break up. There are also three points  of contact on the lower channel line. The only sensible technical clues are:

  1. The predisposition towards bearishness is not a harbinger of inflation
  2. The P&F chart of the gold price shows that the fall of the gold price in September 2011 was the beginning of a downside move that has not yet resolved itself.

To my way of thinking, the chart below – the monthly chart of the 30 year yield shows something very significant

Chart # 4 – Yield on 30 Year US Treasury Bonds

Have a look at the position of the PMO. It seems to be so far oversold that this is not “normal” market reaction. The Fed has more than likely been forcing rates down in anticipation of the election. To my way of thinking, this has set the stage for a vicious up move in yields should the markets start to panic.

Together, these four charts do not have a good feel to them. Its like the deer that’s caught in the car headlights. The next move will likely be sudden and violent and painful.

Brian Bloom

Author, Beyond Neanderthal and The Last Finesse

www.beyondneanderthal.com

Beyond Neanderthal and The Last Finesse are now available to purchase in e-book format, at under US$10 a copy, via almost 60 web based book retailers across the globe. In addition to Kindle, the entertaining, easy-to-read fact based adventure novels may also be downloaded on Kindle for PC, iPhone, iPod Touch, Blackberry, Nook, iPad and Adobe Digital Editions. Together, these two books offer a holistic right brain/left brain view of the current human condition, and of possibilities for a more positive future for humanity.

Copyright © 2012 Brian Bloom - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Brian Bloom Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in