Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Pre-COVID US Economy Wasn’t All That Great Either - 4th Dec 20
Bitcoin Breath Taking Surge - Crypto Trading Event - 4th Dec 20
Platinum Begins A New Rally – Gold & Silver Will Follow - 4th Dec 20
Don't Let the Silver (and Gold) Bull Shake You Off! - 4th Dec 20
Stronger Risk Appetite Sends Gold below $1,800 - 4th Dec 20
A new “miracle compound” is set to take over the biotech market - 4th Dec 20
Eiro-group Review –The power of trading education - 4th Dec 20
Early Investors set to win big as FDA fast-tracks this ancient medicine - 3rd Dec 20
New PC System Switch On, Where's Windows 10 Licence Key? Overclockers UK OEM Review (5) - 3rd Dec 20
Poundland Budget Christmas Decorations Shopping 2020 to Beat the Corona Economic Depression - 3rd Dec 20
What is the right type of insurance for you, and how do you find it? - 3rd Dec 20
What Are the 3 Stocks That Will Benefit from Covid-19? - 3rd Dec 20
Gold & the USDX: Correlations - 2nd Dec 20
How An Ancient Medicine Is Taking On The $16 Trillion Pharmaceutical Industry - 2nd Dec 20
Amazon Black Friday vs Prime Day vs Cyber Monday, Which are Real or Fake Sales - 1st Dec 20
The No.1 Biotech Stock for 2021 - 1st Dec 20
Stocks Bears Last Chance Before Market Rally To SPX 4200 In 2021 - 1st Dec 20
Globalists Poised for a “Great Reset” – Any Role for Gold? - 1st Dec 20
How to Get FREE REAL Christmas Tree 2020! Easy DIY Money Saving - 1st Dec 20
The Truth About “6G” - 30th Nov 20
Ancient Aztec Secret Could Lead To A $6.9 Billion Biotech Breakthrough - 30th Nov 20
AMD Ryzen Zen 3 NO UK MSRP Stock - 5600x, 5800x, 5900x 5950x Selling at DOUBLE FAKE MSRP Prices - 29th Nov 20
Stock Market Short-term Decision Time - 29th Nov 20
Look at These 2 Big Warning Signs for the U.S. Economy - 29th Nov 20
Dow Stock Market Short-term and Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 20
How To Spot The End Of An Excess Market Trend Phase – Part II - 28th Nov 20
BLOCKCHAIN INVESTMENT PRIMER - 28th Nov 20
The Gold Stocks Correction is Maturing - 28th Nov 20
Biden and Yellen Pushed Gold Price Down to $1,800 - 28th Nov 20
Sheffield Christmas Lights 2020 - Peace Gardens vs 2019 and 2018 - 28th Nov 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

U.S. Stock Market Uptrend Appears Underway

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012 Jun 18, 2012 - 01:35 AM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAfter last week’s market surge, (+3.65%), the market started the week with a gap up. But it was sold off and the market remained quite choppy until early thursday. Then the rally resumed. For the week the SPX/DOW were +1.5%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.5%. Growth stocks appear to be lagging, somewhat, as the 2 year tech cycle low approaches. Asian markets gained 1.4%, European markets rose 1.2%, and the DJ World index rose 1.6%. Economic reports for the week were heavily biased to the downside: 2 up and 12 down. On the uptick: business inventories and the monetary base. On the downtick: export/import prices, retail sales, the CPI/PPI, the NY FED, industrial production, consumer sentiment, and the WLEI. Also, the budget deficit, current account deficit, and weekly jobless claims all rose. Overall, it was a good week for stocks as the economy continues to weaken. FOMC meeting concludes this wednesday.


LONG TERM: bull market

Our indicators, and the market’s wave structure continue to support an ongoing bull market in the US. After a complete review of the foreign indices this week, we still have England and Switzerland in bull markets as well. The other seventeen indices, including the DJ World index, all appear to be in bear markets. These three bullish indices have something in common. They all have their own currencies, are able to expand their monetary base when needed, and the current impact of the inflationary consequences of massive liquidity is minimum.

Our preferred count continues to be displayed on the DOW charts. A bear market low in March 2009. Then the beginning of a five Primary wave, Cycle wave [1], bull market. Primary waves I and II ended in April 2011 and October 2011 respectively. Primary wave III has been underway since then. It is also interesting to observe: of the five Major waves in Primary I, only Major wave 1 subdivided into five Intermediate waves. Notice how Major wave 1 of Primary III has also subdivided into five Intermediate waves. Fractals, harmonics, whatever term you prefer to use, the waves of this bull market are unfolding in repetitive and interlocking patterns.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend may be underway

Typically at the end of a downtrend the market gets quite oversold or displays a positive divergence at the low. We recently had a positive divergence. Then the market rallies to overbought and either stays there, or gets oversold again to complete the first two waves of the uptrend. Should it do the latter another series of overbought and oversold conditions completes waves 3 and 4. Then the next rise to overbought ends the uptrend. Thus far, this first rally has barely reached overbought.

Supporting the potential uptrend scenario is the WROC buy signal we had a week ago. These signals usually occur at the beginning of uptrends, and have been better than 90% reliable since our sample began in 2008. The only two failures, of 27 signals, were fully retraced the following week. That did not occur this week. Also of note, of the nine SPX sectors we track the XLP (consumer staples) has recently joined the XLU (utilities) in a confirmed uptrend. Sector improvement, seven are still in downtrends, usually occurs at the beginning of uptrends as well. As long as the market continues to improve we should get an uptrend confirmation soon.

SHORT TERM

SPX support remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week quite overbought. The short term OEW charts remain in a positive bias with the swing point now around SPX 1321.

After retracing nearly 61.8% of the uptrend from SPX 1159-1422 the downtrend appears to have bottomed at 1267 on a daily positive divergence. The rally, this week, just passed the first reaction high, SPX 1335, during the downtrend. The next reaction high is at SPX 1366. Coming off the SPX 1267 low. The market had a good rally to SPX 1336, which can be counted as 5 waves up and Minor wave 1. Then a pullback to SPX 1307 for Minor wave 2. The current rally to SPX 1343 should be part of Minor wave 3. This should only be the early stages of an uptrend that could carry the SPX up to the 1499 pivot. Naturally this would take several months to unfold.

Short term support is at SPX 1327/29 and then the 1313 pivot. Short term resistance is at SPX 1342/47 and then the 1363 pivot. The market is quite overbought short term and could have a pullback at any time. After this rally got underway we had noted a break of the OEW 1291 pivot range would be troublesome for the potential uptrend. We then raised that level to the 1303 pivot. We are now raising it again to the OEW 1313 pivot. A break below the 7 point range of the 1313 pivot would likely suggest the potential uptrend has aborted, and the downtrend is resuming. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mostly higher on the week gaining 1.4%. No confirmed uptrends yet.

The European markets were also mostly higher gaining 1.2%. No uptrends either.

The Commodity equity group were all higher gaining 2.5% for the week. No confirmed uptrends here as well.

The DJ World index gained 1.6% on the week, and has yet to confirmed an uptrend.

COMMODITIES

Bonds bounced around all week but ended with a 0.1% gain.

Crude also bounced around quite a bit but lost 0.7%. It made a new low for its downtrend at $81.07 on tuesday.

Gold continues to make some upside progress gaining 2.1% on the week.

The USD continues to looked as though it has topped at 83.54. It lost 1.1% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

A somewhat light but important economic schedule for next week. On monday at 10:00 the NAHB housing index. On tuesday we get reports on Housing starts and Building permits. Thursday we have weekly Jobless claims, Existing home sales, the Philly FED, Leading indicators and the FHFA price index. On tuesday FED director Alvarez testifies before Congress. The FED also has its regularly scheduled two day FOMC meeting concluding on wednesday with quite likely a market changing statement. This will definitely be an interesting week. Best to you and yours this weekend and week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/...

http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2012 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules