Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
BREWING FINANCIAL CRISIS 2.0 Suggests RECESSION 2022 - 28th Jan 22
Financial Stocks Sector ETF XLF $37.50 Continues To Present Opportunities - 28th Jan 22
Stock Market Rushing Headlong - 28th Jan 22
The right way to play Climate Change Investing (not green energy stocks) - 28th Jan 22
Why Most Investors LOST Money by Investing in ARK FUNDS - 27th Jan 22
The “play-to-earn” trend taking the crypto world by storm - 27th Jan 22
Quantum AI Stocks Investing Priority - 26th Jan 22
Is Everyone Going To Be Right About This Stocks Bear Market?- 26th Jan 22
Stock Market Glass Half Empty or Half Full? - 26th Jan 22
Stock Market Quoted As Saying 'The Reports Of My Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated' - 26th Jan 22
The Synthetic Dividend Option To Generate Profits - 26th Jan 22
The Beginner's Guide to Credit Repair - 26th Jan 22
AI Tech Stocks State Going into the CRASH and Capitalising on the Metaverse - 25th Jan 22
Stock Market Relief Rally, Maybe? - 25th Jan 22
Why Gold’s Latest Rally Is Nothing to Get Excited About - 25th Jan 22
Gold Slides and Rebounds in 2022 - 25th Jan 22
Gold; a stellar picture - 25th Jan 22
CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE ARK Funds Heading for 90% STOCK CRASH! - 22nd Jan 22
Gold Is the Belle of the Ball. Will Its Dance Turn Bearish? - 22nd Jan 22
Best Neighborhoods to Buy Real Estate in San Diego - 22nd Jan 22
Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 - 21st Jan 21
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse - 20th Jan 21
Should you Buy Payment Disruptor Stocks in 2022? - 20th Jan 21
2022 the Year of Smart devices, Electric Vehicles, and AI Startups - 20th Jan 21
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand - 20th Jan 21
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? - 19th Jan 22
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks - 19th Jan 22
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 - 19th Jan 22
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

GFC: Quality, Quantity, and The Chicken Little Phenomenon

Politics / Social Issues May 30, 2012 - 03:23 AM GMT

By: Submissions


Mark Blair writes: The more complex a system is, the more vulnerable it is to collapse. This article offers insights into the ‘qualities’ and ‘quantities’ of stock-market prediction (which for me is human psychology vis a vis political systems).

Firstly, let’s define ‘quality’ and ‘quantity.’ I always use the example of the corporal punishment of children. The ‘quality’ here is whether a parent may physically punish a child at all – that is, even a smack on the wrist. I suggest that no one, in the back of their mind, thinks a smack on the wrist is abuse – but that‘s not the point. The point is: how does the state protect a child from a stepfather who thinks ‘smacks on the wrist’ should be administered with a chunk of 4” by 2”? Here is the ‘quantity’ – how much punishment (if any) is a reasonable amount? Answer: in order to have legal leverage against violent parents who will interpret the ‘quantity’ of punishment in relation to how many beers they’ve had, none at all: If no ‘quality’ of punishment at all is permitted, then all ‘quantity’ of it is therefore illegal.

Now, patience here, readers: I’ve not forgotten that we are oracle-ising the markets – but now let’s define a ‘chaotic equation’:

2 + 2 = 4. That’s a stable equation.

2 + 2 + a number between 1 and 4 = a number between 5 and 9. This is a less stable equation.

Think about Mr. Smith’s Boot Factory in, say, 1800. The boots were made entirely on the premises. The leather for the boots came from the farm next door, and was delivered in a cart made by the blacksmith in the local village. The ‘equation of boot production’ was stable.

Now consider a single factor that has entered the ‘stock-market equation’ just since I started paying attention – VFTs. You don’t need to have even a thimbleful of knowledge about how they work to comprehend that they are a long-term destabilising factor simply because they add a highly unstable ‘constituent’ to an ‘equation’ that is already unstable.

There are a lot of boomer denizens on this site. Some have followed for decades the career of fiat currencies (and the definition of the word ‘career,’ as in ‘The truck careered off the road,’ is exactly what I’m writing about here . . . ). Some have backgrounds in the arithmetic of the creation and development of pension systems. We can argue the sociological validity of these things another time; but I haven’t forgotten where we are: these things represent ‘quantities’ of a ‘quality,’ that is, the constituent elements of an equation whose instability extrapolates as that equation becomes increasingly complex.

Other ‘unstable constituents’ include the here-and-now-gratification values of the west, climate change (whether it’s us or not . . . ), peak soil, overpopulation – we all know the list is longer than it has ever been, and that the equation now looks something like this:

A number between 1 and 10 multiplied by a number between 2 and 7 plus 3.4 times a percentage that will be announced by an unreliable Government Department next week.

What I’m offering here, readers, is (a) an insight into how the world economy can be, month in month out, on the point of careering out of control at any second, and thereby (b) a fairly simple way of explaining it to those you want to explain it to. The facts are that

the situation is of a complexity that is historically unprecedented,

and that most Ordinary People are blissfully unaware of that,

and that it is our responsibility to explain these complexities to them in an era in which even the President of the United States can hardly get his sound-bite in.

Friends of mine, I know, are weary of me saying, ‘Listen, guys, this is serious!’ If it’s so serious . . . how come nothing much has happened in their world? [I’m in Australia. It’s sure realer in the U.S. and other places.]

So, in conclusion:

a collapse (of some considerable degree) is immanent to a system as complex as ours; and predicting that collapse even to within even a decade – considering that the equation has been ‘building up a head of steam’ for a quarter of a millennium or so – is to achieve 96% accuracy, a remarkable degree of accuracy in predicting the outcome of a chaotic equation. Meanwhile, we know it’s coming – it’s got to come* -- and the longer it takes, the worse it will be. Would it be responsible to not tell clients and friends and family? No. So, we tell them; and thus . . .

we are Chicken Little.

Thank you for your time.

*Some other time, we can consider the problems of self-interest and the forms of True Believerism whereby people like the Eurocrats can’t actually see that it’s coming.

Mark Blair owns neither property nor shares. He has thirty years’ experience in devolutionist politics and political theory, and is studying psychology and genetics to try to understand what makes this species tick. His email is

© 2012 Copyright Mark Blair - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in