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Why Iran Can Whip the US and Israel Without Firing a Single Shot

Politics / Middle East Jan 18, 2012 - 07:16 AM GMT

By: LewRockwell

Politics

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMark R. Crovelli writes: To the outside observer, the intensifying conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran (along with some lesser bellicose nations, like Britain) may appear like a classic "prisoner’s dilemma." The best option for both sides seems to be to pacify their domestic constituencies by escalating the conflict, which will ensure the worst possible outcome. The Israeli right-wing government is seemingly beholden to its extremist and terrorist voting blocs, while the American government is seemingly fenced in by the Israel lobby, neoconservative candidates vying for the imperial throne, the US empire and merchants of death, and the Israeli government itself. Meanwhile, the semi-totalitarian Iranian government is seemingly obliged to "stand up" to the aggressive Americans and their "Zionist client state," lest it be seen as "soft" or "weak" by its own citizens.


As in a classic prisoner’s dilemma, both sides are ostensibly ensuring the worst possible outcome by focusing on their own domestic political agendas at the expense of the bigger picture and saner solutions.

If this conflict did indeed represent a classic prisoner’s dilemma, we would have little reason to think that the conflict will not worsen dramatically in the future. We would have to assume that both sides would continue to escalate the conflict to a point from which it would be completely impossible to pull back. World War III would be virtually assured.

Fortunately, however, the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran is not a prisoner’s dilemma situation, because the Iranians hold a trump card that they can eventually use to unequivocally "win" the conflict. The trump card that the Iranians hold, and one prays that they are aware that they hold this card, is to completely dump their nuclear program.

Before you guffaw or snort at this suggestion, recall that this conflict between the Americans and Israelis on the one hand and the Iranians on the other is not about nuclear power or nuclear weapons. As the American intelligence agencies and the American government itself have assured us, to say nothing of the IAEA’s redundant assurances, there is absolutely no evidence that the Iranians are currently attempting to build or acquire nuclear weapons. Nor is the Iranian government an "existential threat" to Israel even if it did acquire nuclear weapons, as even the head former head of the Mossad has assured us. Nor still is there any need for the United States to aid in the defense of Israel, as Benjamin Netanyahu himself informed the American congress.

Bearing all this in mind, the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran has absolutely nothing to do with nuclear power or nuclear weapons. Instead, the pointless conflict is all about cold, hard political power in the Middle East, with the Israelis hoping to secure a vice-like grip on the region.

The Iranian government itself is surely aware of this, and you can bet your last dollar that the Iranian people are aware of it too. The media in Iran is run by the government, which means that the government has undoubtedly informed the Iranian people that it is complying with IAEA regulations and that even the American intelligence agencies say that the Iranian government is not pursuing nuclear weapons.

Why should the Iranian people doubt the sincerity of the Iranian government’s pleas of innocence, when even the IAEA and American intelligence agencies assure them that the Iranian government is not pursuing nuclear weapons? More importantly, why should the rest of the Islamic world doubt the sincerity of the Iranian government’s pleas of innocence, when even the IAEA and American intelligence agencies assure them that the Iranian government is not pursuing nuclear weapons?

The answer is that they have absolutely no reason to doubt the Iranian government’s sincerity, and therein lies Iran’s trump card in this conflict. The Iranian government will not lose face with the rest of the Islamic world if it decides to terminate its nuclear program completely, as Israel and Washington demand, and diffuse the entire situation. Obama and Netenyahu would be so caught off guard by such a move that peace would be virtually assured, and the reputation of the Iranian government would be magnified a thousand fold in the region. The Iranian government would be viewed as a sane, peaceful and, most importantly, trustworthy government by the rest of the Islamic world.

Instead of toppling their regional rival, the Israelis would find themselves confronting a newly lionized giant. Forget the Arab Spring of 2011; the Iranian Spring of 2012 would transform the world.

The Americans and their European underlings would have little reason to continue their unjust and bellicose sanctions if the Iranians did precisely what was demanded of them. Continuation of the sanctions would only appear to be unjust and Iraq-like meddling in the Islamic world in the arrogant hope of "regime change" for Washington and Tel Aviv’s benefit. The reversal of sanctions, on the other hand, would almost instantaneously revive Iran’s economy, as petrodollars once again flooded the economy. Hillary Clinton and her chickenhawk confreres would no doubt still whine that the Iranians don’t "recognize" Israel, (as if it matters to the nuclear-armed Israelis whether another country "recognizes" them, whatever that even means), but poor Hillary would be at a complete loss as to what else to do.

For the sake of the entire world, especially including the hapless citizens if Iran, Israel, and the United States, one can only pray that the Iranians are politically savvy enough to recognize that they can win this conflict without even firing a shot. They don’t need to shut down the Straits of Hormuz, and they don’t need to fire a single Silkworm missile at an American aircraft carrier. All they need to do is shut down their nuclear programs in toto, and they will emerge from this conflict as the dominant and respected regional power of the Middle East.

Most importantly, they will thereby avert World War III and the spilling of much innocent blood.

Mark R. Crovelli [send him mail] writes from Denver, Colorado.

    http://www.lewrockwell.com

      © 2012 Copyright Mark R. Crovelli - All Rights Reserved
      Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

gAnton
19 Jan 12, 20:05
Why Are Major US Enemies Rejoicing?

There are many countries throughout the world that would like to see the international economic, political, and military powers and influences of the United States severly diminished. This is not to say that the majority of these countries are necessarily enemies of the US, nor that they want to see the US devistated by its tomfoolery, but for various and sundry reasons they would like to see the process of the fall of the US empire speeded up, and this gives many of them a risk free opportunity for speeding up this inevitable process. There is high risk to the US of serious collateral damage here, and it might well end up winning the battle, but losing the war.


Andrew McKillop
20 Jan 12, 06:08
Iran nuclear

This article is unrealistic ! To be sure Iran could give up nuclear power entirely, its role and relevance in Iranian energy is almost zero but elite planners, whether in Iran or USA or Japan or anywhere else believe and hope nuclear power is clean, safe and cheap.

Iran was one of the first non-western countries to take up the Dwight Eisenhower-era Atoms for Peace project. Iran has been playing round with nuclear power "trying to make it work" for more than 50 years, not 10 years. Only major disasters like Fukushima make elite planners give up nuclear power, IMHO, and even then we have the "It can never happen again" story, or NIMBY (No Nuclear Disasters can happen in Our Back Yard - because we're so great !!!)

Basically Iranian elite planners imagine that After Oil = Nuclear Power, and are not yet around to AO = Windmills !


Ramani
22 Jan 12, 22:21
Why Iran Can Whip the US and Israel Without Firing a Single Shot

This is an unrealistic proposal. First, no one has come down from the mountain and said only the US and a handful of other countries in the world are the 'chosen ones' to have nuclear energy or weapons. In fact, had it been left to the 'approval' of these countries, other nuclear powers like China, India and Pakistan would never have become so. Second, even if Iran does throw in the towel and declare it is abandoning its nuclear programme, there is no assurance the US, Israel and other 'international powers' would cease pressurizing Iran on something else. The 'Iran should not have nuclear weapons' chant is just the current causus belli. If this is taken off the table, another causus belli would be found since the real issue is Iran's oil and gas reserves. After all, no other nuclear state, including Pakistan, has exercised that option so far. Nor has anyone asked Americans, Israelis or Europeans to live under or embrace Iran's theocracy. We live in a world of a few Western nations delirious with the their military might and bent on exercising that might to achieve economic and political ambitions. To them, all wars are just wars and even pockets of peace, if not wrought by them, are in need of a creative destruction...


Paul
24 Jan 12, 22:33
Israel's hostility

...toward Iran has less to do with nuclear power than it does to do with their desire for a Greater Israel that dominates the Mid-East, lording it over a bunch of broken and divided Arab nations. Egypt, Libya and to some extent Syria have been dealt with and Iran is the next major project. It's too big to take on using mercenaries disguised as freedom fighters however, hence the agitation to once again drag the US into an Iraq-style operation.


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