Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
AI Tech Stocks Investing Portfolio Buying Levels and Valuations 2021 Explained - 2nd Mar 21
There’s A “Chip” Shortage: And TSMC Holds All The Cards - 2nd Mar 21
Why now might be a good time to buy gold and gold juniors - 2nd Mar 21
Silver Is Close To Something Big - 2nd Mar 21
Bitcoin: Let's Put 2 Heart-Pounding Price Drops into Perspective - 2nd Mar 21
Gold Stocks Spring Rally 2021 - 2nd Mar 21
US Housing Market Trend Forecast 2021 - 2nd Mar 21
Covid-19 Vaccinations US House Prices Trend Indicator 2021 - 2nd Mar 21
How blockchain technology will change the online casino - 2nd Mar 21
How Much PC RAM Memory is Good in 2021, 16gb, 32gb or 64gb? - 2nd Mar 21
US Housing Market House Prices Momentum Analysis - 26th Feb 21
FOMC Minutes Disappoint Gold Bulls - 26th Feb 21
Kiss of Life for Gold - 26th Feb 21
Congress May Increase The Moral Hazard Building In The Stock Market - 26th Feb 21
The “Oil Of The Future” Is Set To Soar In 2021 - 26th Feb 21
The Everything Stock Market Rally Continues - 25th Feb 21
Vaccine inequality: A new beginning or another missed opportunity? - 25th Feb 21
What's Next Move For Silver, Gold? Follow US Treasuries and Commodities To Find Out - 25th Feb 21
Warren Buffett Buys a Copper Stock! - 25th Feb 21
Work From Home Inflationary US House Prices BOOM! - 25th Feb 21
Man Takes First Steps Towards Colonising Mars - Nasa Perseverance Rover in Jezero Crater - 25th Feb 21
Musk, Bezos And Cook Are Rushing To Lock In New Lithium Supply - 25th Feb 21
US Debt and Yield Curve (Spread between 2 year and 10 year US bonds) - 24th Feb 21
Should You Buy a Landrover Discovery Sport in 2021? - 24th Feb 21
US Housing Market 2021 and the Inflation Mega-trend - QE4EVER! - 24th Feb 21
M&A Most Commonly Used Software - 24th Feb 21
Is More Stock Market Correction Needed? - 24th Feb 21
VUZE XR Camera 180 3D VR Example Footage Video Image quality - 24th Feb 21
How to Protect Your Positions From A Stock Market Sell-Off Using Options - 24th Feb 21
Why Isn’t Retail Demand for Silver Pushing Up Prices? - 24th Feb 21
2 Stocks That Could Win Big In The Trillion Dollar Battery War - 24th Feb 21
US Economic Trends - GDP, Inflation and Unemployment Impact on House Prices 2021 - 23rd Feb 21
Why the Sky Is Not Falling in Precious Metals - 23rd Feb 21
7 Things Every Businessman Should Know - 23rd Feb 21
For Stocks, has the “Rational Bubble” Popped? - 23rd Feb 21
Will Biden Overheat the Economy and Gold? - 23rd Feb 21
Precious Metals Under Seige? - 23rd Feb 21
US House Prices Trend Forecast Review - 23rd Feb 21
Lithium Prices Soar As Tesla, Apple And Google Fight For Supply - 23rd Feb 21
Stock Markets Discounting Post Covid Economic Boom - 22nd Feb 21
Economics Is Why Vaccination Is So Hard - 22nd Feb 21
Pivotal Session In Stocks Bull Bear Battle - 22nd Feb 21
Gold’s Downtrend: Is This Just the Beginning? - 22nd Feb 21
The Most Exciting Commodities Play Of 2021? - 22nd Feb 21
How to Test NEW and Used GPU, and Benchmark to Make sure it is Working Properly - 22nd Feb 21
US House Prices Vaccinations Indicator - 21st Feb 21
S&P 500 Correction – No Need to Hold Onto Your Hat - 21st Feb 21
Gold Setting Up Major Bottom So Could We See A Breakout Rally Begin Soon? - 21st Feb 21
Owning Real Assets Amid Surreal Financial Markets - 21st Feb 21
Great Investment Ideas For 2021 - 21st Feb 21
US House Prices Momentum Analysis - 20th Feb 21
The Most Important Chart in Housing Right Now - 20th Feb 21
Gold Is the Ultimate Reserve Asset - 20th Feb 21
Is That the S&P 500 And Gold Correction Finally? - 20th Feb 21
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD - 20th Feb 21
The Stock Market Big Picture - 19th Feb 21
Could Silver "Do a Palladium"? - 19th Feb 21
Three More Reasons We Love To Trade Options! - 19th Feb 21
Here’s What’s Eating Away at Gold - 19th Feb 21
Stock Market March Melt-Up Madness - 19th Feb 21
Land Rover Discovery Sport Extreme Ice and Snow vs Windscreen Wipers Test - 19th Feb 21
Real Reason Why Black and Asian BAME are NOT Getting Vaccinated - NHS Covid-19 Vaccinations - 19th Feb 21
New BNPL Regulations Leave Zilch Leading the Way - 19th Feb 21
Work From Home Inflationary House Prices BOOM! - 18th Feb 21
Why This "Excellent" Stock Market Indicator Should Be on Your Radar Screen Now - 18th Feb 21
The Commodity Cycle - 18th Feb 21
Silver Backwardation and Other Evidence of a Silver Supply Squeeze - 18th Feb 21
Why I’m Avoiding These “Bottle Rocket” Stocks Like GameStop - 18th Feb 21
S&P 500 Correction Delayed Again While Silver Runs - 18th Feb 21
Silver Prices Are About to Explode as Stars are Lining up Like Never Before! - 18th Feb 21
Cannabis, Alternative Agra, Mushrooms, and Cryptos – Everything ALT is HOT - 18th Feb 21
Crypto Mining Craze, How We Mined 6 Bitcoins with a PS4 Gaming Console - 18th Feb 21
Stock Market Trend Forecasts Analysis Review - 17th Feb 21
Vaccine Nationalism Is a Multilateral, Neocolonial Failure - 17th Feb 21
First year of a Stocks bull market, or End of a Bubble? - 17th Feb 21
5 Reasons Why People Prefer to Trade Options Over Stocks - 17th Feb 21
The Gold & Gold Stock Corrections Are Normal - 17th Feb 21
WARNING Oculus Quest 2 Update v25 BROKE My VR Headset! - 17th Feb 21
UK Covid-19 Parks PACKED During Lockdown Despite "Stay at Home" Message - Endcliffe Park Sheffield - 17th Feb 21
How to Invest in ETFs in the UK - 17th Feb 21
Real Reason Why Black and Asian Ethnic minorities are NOT Getting Vaccinated - NHS Covid-19 Vaccinations - 16th Feb 21
THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND QE4EVER! - 16th Feb 21
Gold / Silver: What This "Large Non-Confirmation" May Mean - 16th Feb 21
Major Optimism for Platinum, Silver, and Copper - 16th Feb 21
S&P 500 Correction Looming, Just as in Gold – Or Not? - 16th Feb 21
Stock Market Last pull-back before intermediate top? - 16th Feb 21
GAMESTOP MANIA BUBBLE BURSTS! Investing Newbs Pump and Dump Roller coaster Ride - 16th Feb 21
Thinking About Starting to Trade This Year? Here Are Some Things to Keep in Mind - 16th Feb 21
US House Prices Real Estate Trend Forecast Review - 15th Feb 21
Will Tesla Charge Gold With Energy? - 15th Feb 21
Feeling the Growing Heat and Tensions in Stocks? - 15th Feb 21
Morgan Stanley Warns Gasoline Industry Is About to Become Totally Worthless - 15th Feb 21
Debts Lift Gold - Precious Metal Prices Will Rise on a Deluge of Red Ink - 15th Feb 21
Platinum Begins Big Breakout Rally - 15th Feb 21
How to Change Car Battery Without Losing Power, Memory, Radio Code Settings - 15th Feb 21
Five reasons why a financial advisor can make a big difference to your small business - 15th Feb 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Stocks & Commodity Markets Elliott Wave Analysis - 4th Feb 07 - Mission Accomplished

Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis Feb 04, 2007 - 09:01 PM GMT

By: Dominick

Commodities

It wasn't easy to present yet another update last week that anticipated additional highs in the face of an outside down week, which has a great track record of being correct. The January 28 th update stated:

“Could the reversal looking pattern only be part of a larger correction that's stalling for time? When I look over many of my charts, the answer that pops out is yes. So, even though I can label a top is in, I won't do it yet for several reasons. The sentiment on that drop wasn't what I wanted to see and, believe it or not, I have two very valid setups for additional highs. Another huge leg up isn't in the cards, but I'm not about to be short prematurely into the squeeze of all squeezes and get taken out of the position minutes before it turns.”

Once again, the market had most traders convinced last week the top was in only to leave them on the sidelines or, worse, short. It's amazing the market simply won't pull back and continues to grind upward leaving no one a chance to get in cheap.


I'm sure sentiment has played its part in recent weeks and is still fueling the markets' move higher as the old tops appear on the radar screen. Last week started with some decent sentiment readings, but closed with everyone again throwing money into puts trying to be top pickers. Of course, sentiment can change in a day, but that's what the numbers read as of Friday's close.

Still, an interesting development occurred as a different tune arose from the bearish camp late in the week. Every single bear I spoke with on Thursday and Friday now wanted to buy after having fought the relentless upward move every day, week and month since June. All of a sudden, the S&P has hundreds of points to rally, and quickly. That, my friend, is the smell of capitulation!

When the bears capitulate, it's usually the sign that we're topping. Short term, sure, you can still make some money on the long side. But for the most part, these were not short-term trades I was hearing from the former bears. I think an exaggeratedly bullish view can be as bad as an unbearably bearish view, so I'll pass on the idea of a several hundred point rally from here one and work with something a little less biased. In fact, I think I'll stick with last summer's idea that I thought the ultimate target for the NYSE was a hidden Fibonacci magnet of 9314.

ultimate target for the NYSE was a hidden Fibonacci magnet of 9314.
It was a great event this week when the NYSE hit the exact number I'd called last summer. Mission accomplised! More than 60 of our full time trading members watched from the chatroom as the target got hit. Since then I've also received emails from many weekly readers expressing their thankfulness because that target kept them from shorting this market week after week after week, and I hope many of you have had that same good luck. If you're not sure what type of disaster you might have removed from your life by staying long, take a look at a daily S&P chart. There's lots of margin calls and pain on them.

As you know, we nailed the 9314 target and then decided to “vibrate” around it instead of falling off or knifing through. In my understanding, the market recognized its destination and is now deciding where to go from here. If you're struggling to understand what the play is now, it's easier then you think if you just play the markets' hand. We're right on schedule so far and have reached many targets, but does that mean we HAVE to stop here? I hope you all understand the answer is NO.

While I'm not absolutely calling the TOP yet, you should understand why I'm not buying the bullish, “to da moon” case. I had a plan and now I want to see it through. I started with SPX 1360 and adjusted the targets every week until I saw confirmation of a top or the NYSE reach its target. Well, the NYSE did that this week and I'm prepared to look for a turn. But no, we did NOT have confirmation that this week was it. No way. But I do have enough evidence that if things remain as they are, we will rollover soon.

disconnect between the SPX and NDX at the moment

The chart above shows the present disconnect between the SPX and NDX at the moment. Unless the Sox and NDX get into high gear immediately, the market might have a problem very soon. I also mentioned on the site last week that the Russell wasn't acting like a top was in yet. That idea was correct as it went on to make all time new highs. At this point, it can be close to done and I expect it to showoff at a turn and lose up to 30 points in a day.

That said, you can make the case that if all is peaceful next week, we could doll up a few markets and give them their finishing touches. Below is one of the charts asking for a bit more work before leaving this area. The Wilshire 5000 is begging for those old highs.

The Wilshire 5000 is begging for those old high

We've noted before that there are some markets out there that read like a print from an Elliott Wave textbook. Of course, you wouldn't need TTC or an update like this if the markets were easy to game like if you lived in, say, Austria . There are some smaller markets out there that always execute perfect patterns and behave like they should. Take a look at the chart below. If the S&P traded like this it would just be too easy!

I've mentioned a new target of SPX 1472,

But, of course, the S&P does not trade like a textbook and that's exactly why you need the resources available at TTC and that voice expressing what the crowd will not . Just as it was dangerous to predict a huge rally last summer, it's hard here to push for a bit of caution as the markets advance each and every day. Tops do not form like bottoms do. This is a market where the bulls have the upper hand and are squeezing! Maybe that changes if the Chicago Bears win this weekend? Seriously, I think this is make or break time for the market. I've mentioned a new target of SPX 1472, but there's a great chance of turning before, and I think we should. But that does not mean that the basic concept of buyers overwhelming sellers here couldn't create an explosive rally, nor will we think about being heroes if it does. I don't see that yet, but I want everyone to understand, this is in the big boy's territory now.

Just because the S&P doesn't always make obvious, easy to predict moves, doesn't mean there aren't domestic markets that sometimes do. The chart below of the transports is a good example of keeping it simple. It clearly hit that trendline to the tick last summer and took off. How so many guys were bearish against that is hard to understand, but they were. The point is make money where the market makes it easy, don't go chasing after a miracle.

he S&P doesn't always make obvious, easy to predict moves,

I see next week as a slight advance on Monday and then possible a boring consolidation before another advance that marks a turn. Don't make that idea become your bias as in this type of market, anything can change immediately and I know we will be right on top of it real time, you should be also. Don't lose sight that maybe all this market will do is poke its head to a new high. Maybe its done, maybe it needs a bit more. That will be monitored as we go forward. Analysis going into these important events can be viewed 24/7 for only $50 per month.

The charts that will be posted in the forums this weekend alone are worth 10 times that fee.

Unbiased Elliott Wave works, join us!

Crude Oil
When oil was at $75, the news was talking about 100. Then, when oil dipped below $50, the news started talking about 30. This, my friends, is why we trade the charts, and not the news!

It's not driving season yet, but the colder weather that finally arrived predictably appeared as a drawdown in distillate inventories on Wednesday. But leave it to an old oilman to really put the bottom in for crude. Right after we called a bottom in oil, George W. Bush announced his plan to double the U.S.'s strategic petroleum reserve and, even though it won't kick in for another contract, it's pretty well made sure that, come next month, there'll always be a bid. Insurance for an attack against Iran, or cronyistic manipulation of the market through extra-legal channels, the so-called facts are classified for national security reasons.

The point is that we want to make some money and I indicated in last week's update the move to $60 might have already begun. This chart here shows the Fibbonnaci projection at work in the crude futures and why I was getting bullish just as the rest of the world was ready to flush the whole thing away. Can you guess my target?

When oil was at $75, the news was talking about 100. Then, when oil dipped below $50, the news started talking about 30. This, my friends, is why we trade the charts, and not the news

Google
Google made for some great trading as its earning report had it trading in a volatile range. For the week, the range was 30 points with many more points in between. Going forward, this will act like the Russell, if we are topping.

There is no risk/reward trade at the moment. The easy money has already been made on the long side.

Metals
Joe has been covering the precious metals markets for us in rare depth and accuracy. For specific analysis, be sure to read his weekly Precious Points updates.

Have a great week trading, and don't forget:

“Unbiased Elliott Wave works!”

By Dominick

For real-time analysis, become a member for only $50

If you've enjoyed this article, signup for Market Updates , our monthly newsletter, and, for more immediate analysis and market reaction, view my work and the charts exchanged between our seasoned traders in TradingtheCharts forum . Continued success has inspired expansion of the “open access to non subscribers” forums, and our Market Advisory members and I have agreed to post our work in these forums periodically. Explore services from Wall Street's best, including Jim Curry, Tim Ords, Glen Neely, Richard Rhodes, Andre Gratian, Bob Carver, Eric Hadik, Chartsedge, Elliott today, Stock Barometer, Harry Boxer, Mike Paulenoff and others. Try them all, subscribe to the ones that suit your style, and accelerate your trading profits! These forums are on the top of the homepage at Trading the Charts. Market analysts are always welcome to contribute to the Forum or newsletter. Email me @ Dominick@tradingthecharts.com if you have any interest.

This update is provided as general information and is not an investment recommendation. TTC accepts no liability whatsoever for any losses resulting from action taken based on the contents of its charts, commentaries, or price data. Securities and commodities markets involve inherent risk and not all positions are suitable for each individual. Check with your licensed financial advisor or broker prior to taking any action.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules