Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Amazon Black Friday vs Prime Day vs Cyber Monday, Which are Real or Fake Sales - 1st Dec 20
The No.1 Biotech Stock for 2021 - 1st Dec 20
Stocks Bears Last Chance Before Market Rally To SPX 4200 In 2021 - 1st Dec 20
Globalists Poised for a “Great Reset” – Any Role for Gold? - 1st Dec 20
How to Get FREE REAL Christmas Tree 2020! Easy DIY Money Saving - 1st Dec 20
The Truth About “6G” - 30th Nov 20
Ancient Aztec Secret Could Lead To A $6.9 Billion Biotech Breakthrough - 30th Nov 20
AMD Ryzen Zen 3 NO UK MSRP Stock - 5600x, 5800x, 5900x 5950x Selling at DOUBLE FAKE MSRP Prices - 29th Nov 20
Stock Market Short-term Decision Time - 29th Nov 20
Look at These 2 Big Warning Signs for the U.S. Economy - 29th Nov 20
Dow Stock Market Short-term and Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 20
How To Spot The End Of An Excess Market Trend Phase – Part II - 28th Nov 20
The Gold Stocks Correction is Maturing - 28th Nov 20
Biden and Yellen Pushed Gold Price Down to $1,800 - 28th Nov 20
Sheffield Christmas Lights 2020 - Peace Gardens vs 2019 and 2018 - 28th Nov 20
MUST WATCH Before You Waste Money on Buying A New PC Computer System - 27th Nov 20
Gold: Insurance for Prudent Investors, Precious Metals Reduce Risk & Preserve Wealth - 27th Nov 20
How To Spot The End Of An Excess Market Trend Phase - 27th Nov 20
Snow Falling Effect Christmas Lights Outdoor Projector Amazon Review - 27th Nov 20
4 Reasons Why You Shouldn't Put off Your Roof Repairs - 27th Nov 20
Further Clues Reveal Gold’s Weakness - 26th Nov 20
Fun Things to Do this Christmas - 26th Nov 20
Industries that Require Secure Messaging Apps - 26th Nov 20
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 25th Nov 20
Amazon Black Friday Dell 32 Inch S3220DGF VA Curved Screen Gaming Monitor Bargain Deal! - 25th Nov 20
Biden the Silver Bull - 25th Nov 20
Inflation Warning to the Fed: Be Careful What You Wish For - 25th Nov 20
Financial Stocks Sector ETF Shows Unique Island Setup – What Next? - 25th Nov 20
Herd Immunity or Herd Insolvency: Which Will Affect Gold More? - 25th Nov 20
Stock Market SEASONAL TREND and ELECTION CYCLE - 24th Nov 20
Amazon Black Friday - Karcher K7 FC Pressure Washer Assembly and 1st Use - Is it Any Good? - 24th Nov 20
I Dislike Shallow People And Shallow Market Pullbacks - 24th Nov 20
Small Traders vs. Large Traders vs. Commercials: Who Is Right Most Often? - 24th Nov 20
10 Reasons You Should Trade With a Regulated Broker In UK - 24th Nov 20
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis - 23rd Nov 20
Evolution of the Fed - 23rd Nov 20
Gold and Silver Now and Then - A Comparison - 23rd Nov 20
Nasdaq NQ Has Stalled Above a 1.382 Fibonacci Expansion Range Three Times - 23rd Nov 20
Learn How To Trade Forex Successfully - 23rd Nov 20
Market 2020 vs 2016 and 2012 - 22nd Nov 20
Gold & Silver - Adapting Dynamic Learning Shows Possible Upside Price Rally - 22nd Nov 20
Stock Market Short-term Correction - 22nd Nov 20
Stock Market SPY/SPX Island Setups Warn Of A Potential Reversal In This Uptrend - 21st Nov 20
Why Budgies Make Great Pets for Kids - 21st Nov 20
How To Find The Best Dry Dog Food For Your Furry Best Friend?  - 21st Nov 20
The Key to a Successful LGBT Relationship is Matching by Preferences - 21st Nov 20
Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis - 20th Nov 20
Margin: How Stock Market Investors Are "Reaching for the Stars" - 20th Nov 20
World’s Largest Free-Trade Pact Inspiration for Global Economic Recovery - 20th Nov 20
Dating Sites Break all the Stereotypes About Distance - 20th Nov 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Obama Our Saviour, the U.S. Debt Ceiling Deal

Politics / US Debt Aug 01, 2011 - 02:44 PM GMT

By: Submissions


Best Financial Markets Analysis Article Jonathan Davis writes:So, Obama and The Democratic leadership and The Republican leadership twisted loads of arms, tightened screws and got a deal. All over the media you hear $2.5Trns of cuts have been agreed. Rubbish!

First, this deal has to be approved by Congress. It will be.

Second, the deal involves only c $1Trn of cuts over 10 years, with the bulk at the tail-end (i.e. not on our watch Guv’nor). The other $1.5Trn is to be ‘decided’ by a non-partisan committee, which will likely reduce the number right down.

The Tea Party is condemned as seeking the closure of social security offices and the ending of health care to senior citizens. Condemned by the entire mainstream UK media. Did no-one in the UK media ask themselves could Obama instead have reduced, for example, the scale of his wars (Nobel peace prize winner…! L) or downscaled Homeland Security which is as much a reduction of civil liberties as we can see in the ‘free’ West?

Let’s get some perspective:

The ‘Proposals’ are now facts. So, does this look like it has moved in line with inflation? Clearly not, inflation fell dramatically during the 80s 90s and 2000s.

I can tell you the UK position is very similar to that of the US however it is distinctly more difficult to obtain such charts of our own democracy.

The US is c 5 times the size of our economy. Our Govt’s debts are c £5.5 Trns – accounting properly for expressed debt, PFI and unfunded pension promises. The Govt takes in c £550 Bns of revenue each year (while spending c £700Bns). So, our Govt owes c 10 x its (our!) income. For how long does anyone seriously believe that is going to be sustainable by the global banks, the lenders? Sure, in the short to intermediate terms they are perfectly happy. Until they retire and the new executives take over and suffer the consequences. In due course, however, the lenders will realise that there will be insufficient taxpayers’ money to be drained to pay them. I refer you to Greece, Ireland, Iceland, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Cyprus, Dubai. I still hear senior commentators proclaim that we are very different to Greece. We are. Our financial position is worse! But that’s not what those commentators mean.

Note, I included Iceland in the list above. Iceland is now growing strongly after having defaulted on its debts, made by reckless irresponsible bankers. Do you think there might be a lesson here? What about Chile or Argentina or Russia who did the same not so long ago? Of course there is? Do you hear it in the mainstream media? Not at all. It’s not convenient and busts the myths that default can be good – and would be for us, but not the bankers.

On top of the Govt’s debts are the vast debts held by families. Secured on property? Maybe (but highly debatable). However, families can take on no further debt, in aggregate. Thus, the household income to spending shortfall that was met by borrowing for years (shall we call it…er… Deficit?) will mean spending will fall. The consumer is no longer pushing the economy forward and will not for years, if not decades. The Govt can’t as it is nearly maxed out on debt.

And it’s the same in practically every country on Earth.

Yet, as a social democratic society we continue, as we have for decades, to vote for those political parties who promise us the most for the least cost. Not counting the extra debt they take on to give us what we voted for. We have the government we seek. That is our downfall. We are now at the end of the line. In the global economic headlines, expect Greece to be supplanted by UK after the next election.

You do have to wonder, with all those amazingly bright economists at or from universities, how come they can’t see it (can’t see the most obvious and huge thing right in front of their noses), and haven’t seen it? Of course, after it happens they will revise history to pretend they did.

The answer is they are paid by the state and/or businesses (banks and multinationals) which require them to support the perpetuation of the myths.

We will have either hyper inflation – preferred by Govts and banks – or default. Both will be followed by a massive bust, far bigger and longer duration than 2008. There is no alternative.

GDP = Consumer spending + Business Investment + Govt Spending + Net Trade.

What, there, can possibly rise sufficiently to grow our economy so that we go through without societal pain and lower standards of living?

What else?

I urge you to have a look at what Obama has been saying about the ‘need’ to raise the debt ceiling recently. Compare it to what he said as a 1st term Senator in 2006 – which was such a long time ago, wasn’t it?:

“The fact that we are here today to debate raising America’s debt limit is a sign of leadership failure,” he said. “It is a sign that the U.S. Government can’t pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government’s reckless fiscal policies. … Leadership means that ‘the buck stops here.’ Instead, Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and grandchildren. America has a debt and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better.”

Sen. Barack Obama 2006

He will now win the next election – as, like Brown, he will buy 10s of millions of votes – and he will try to raise the debt ceiling to $20Trns in 2013. I suspect the markets – the banks – will say enough is enough.

(Brown didn’t win but he came close even though singularly unpopular and unmarketable.)

This next chart shows how labour participation in the US economy has fallen off the cliff and is back to pre-debt soaring levels. How does an economy grow if millions and millions are out of work?

We have been in an era of rising debt. We are now in an era of deleveraging. How does an economy get back to work if debt is falling? It doesn’t. Society will take much longer than it needs to realise this obvious fact because the bulk of commentators have a personal vested interest in perpetuating the system – even if it’s as interest little as they ‘need’ to preserve the value of their home. Well, that won’t even work over time.

The next chart of US unemployment durations is a real doozy!

I don’t think I need to comment?

I believe this next to be a fair depiction of where we’ve come from and to where we are headed:

Was anything sorted in 2009? You decide.

Long term view

Something did change with the deal last night. There is now a change in US politics which is about less spending and balancing books. It will take years to get there but the process has, FINALLY, started. This will help society long term to remain relatively free. However, The West will have a much lower standard of living (Ireland, Greece etc). But that was inevitable anyway.

I preferred (and prefer) the short-sharp-shock-to-the-system method of readjustment to reality. Voters and politicians can’t accept that. Thus, expect years or decades of adjustment.

There may be concepts in this (these) updates which are outside of your normal experience. If ever you have any queries please do not hesitate to contact us.

Follow me on Twitter for every day updates.

We work with high to very high net worth families (£250k to £25m of financial assets and/or high earners).

If ever you have any queries please do not hesitate to contact us.

Jonathan Davis

Economist and Private Client Wealth Manager

© 2011 Copyright Jonathan Davis - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules