Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE ARK Funds Heading for 90% STOCK CRASH! - 22nd Jan 22
Gold Is the Belle of the Ball. Will Its Dance Turn Bearish? - 22nd Jan 22
Best Neighborhoods to Buy Real Estate in San Diego - 22nd Jan 22
Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 - 21st Jan 21
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse - 20th Jan 21
Should you Buy Payment Disruptor Stocks in 2022? - 20th Jan 21
2022 the Year of Smart devices, Electric Vehicles, and AI Startups - 20th Jan 21
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand - 20th Jan 21
WARNING - AI STOCK MARKET CRASH / BEAR SWITCH TRIGGERED! - 19th Jan 22
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? - 19th Jan 22
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks - 19th Jan 22
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 - 19th Jan 22
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22
Best Metaverse Tech Stocks Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 14th Jan 22
Gold Price Lagging Inflation - 14th Jan 22
Get Your Startup Idea Up And Running With These 7 Tips - 14th Jan 22
What Happens When Your Flight Gets Cancelled in the UK? - 14th Jan 22
How to Profit from 2022’s Biggest Trend Reversal - 11th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Ready To Drop To 4400SPX? - 11th Jan 22
What's the Role of an Affiliate Marketer? - 11th Jan 22
Essential Things To Know Before You Set Up A Limited Liability Company - 11th Jan 22
NVIDIA THE KING OF THE METAVERSE! - 10th Jan 22
Fiscal and Monetary Cliffs Have Arrived - 10th Jan 22
The Meteoric Rise of Investing in Trading Cards - 10th Jan 22
IBM The REAL Quantum Metaverse STOCK! - 9th Jan 22
WARNING Failing NVME2 M2 SSD Drives Can Prevent Systems From Booting - Corsair MP600 - 9th Jan 22
The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history - 9th Jan 22
NVME M2 SSD FAILURE WARNING Signs - Corsair MP600 1tb Drive - 9th Jan 22
Meadowhall Sheffield Christmas Lights 2021 Shopping - Before the Switch on - 9th Jan 22
How Does Insurance Work In Europe? Find Out Here - 9th Jan 22
MATTERPORT (MTTR) - DIGITIZING THE REAL WORLD - METAVERSE INVESTING 2022 - 7th Jan 22
Effect of Deflation On The Gold Price - 7th Jan 22
Stock Market 2022 Requires Different Strategies For Traders/Investors - 7th Jan 22
Old Man Winter Will Stimulate Natural Gas and Heating Oil Demand - 7th Jan 22
Is The Lazy Stock Market Bull Strategy Worth Considering? - 7th Jan 22
METAVERSE - NEW LIFE FOR SONY AGEING GAMING GIANT? - 6th Jan 2022
What Elliott Waves Show for Asia Pacific Stock and Financial Markets 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
Why You Should Register Your Company - 6th Jan 2022
4 Ways to Invest in Silver for 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
UNITY (U) - Metaverse Stock Analysis Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 5th Jan 2022
Stock Market Staving Off Risk-Off - 5th Jan 2022
Gold and Silver Still Hungover After New Year’s Eve - 5th Jan 2022
S&P 500 In an Uncharted Territory, But Is Sky the Limit? - 5th Jan 2022

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Learn How to Trade the Gold GDX Fibonacci Butterfly Options Spread

InvestorEducation / Options & Warrants Jul 13, 2011 - 12:48 AM GMT

By: J_W_Jones

InvestorEducation

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOne of the many useful characteristics of options is that the astute trader can design strategies to capture profit from predicted price action forecasts from a wide variety of technical indicators. I think it is helpful to have knowledge of several approaches to technical analysis in order to recognize patterns that other traders may not see.


Today I would like to introduce the topic of a technical pattern that is not commonly discussed and demonstrate its ability to give a high probability trade in a liquid underlying, the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF, symbol $GDX.

The basis of the trade I would like to discuss is that of a Fibonacci butterfly, in this case, a bearish Fibonacci butterfly. This pattern is derived from price relationships and the proclivity of these relationships to form predictable zones of price resistance and reversals.

The subject of the Fibonacci sequence, its origin, and potential applications is well beyond the scope of this posting. Suffice it to say that the numerical relationships found within the Fibonacci series have wide distributions across a host of natural relationships.  For those interested in learning more about these relationships and their derivations, any internet search engine will point to a huge trove of supplementary information.

The Fibonacci butterfly was best described initially by legendary trader Larry Pesavento. It represents one of two well defined Fibonacci reversal patterns that include both the Gartley and the butterfly. For those traders just beginning to wrap their heads around option terminology, I should point out that this butterfly is completely unrelated to the family of butterflies an option trader may elect to use as a trade structure choice. Don’t let your butterflies get confused!

These are reversal patterns and identify high probability areas of change in price direction.  The pattern is stereotypical and consists of: an impulsive initial move in price, either up or down, often including gap movement (the X:A thrust) ; retracement of that initial move (A:B counterthrust) to the 0.618 to around the 0.786 Fibonacci level; retracement of that retracement (the B:C secondary thrust); and  the final retracement (the C:D counterthrust) which results in completion of the pattern. 

The final C:D leg for a butterfly pattern completes when  price reaches the zone between 1.272 and 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the initial price movement. Once this final C:D leg has completed within this defined Fibonacci zone, the predicted price movement is in the direction of the initial X:A movement.

It is important to await confirmatory triggers prior to initiating trades from these patterns because these patterns may fail and failed patterns very often lead to explosive moves in the direction of the failure.

Now, if your head has not yet exploded, and you are still reading, it is much easier to understand with a picture.

The horizontal lines with numbers represent the various Fibonacci retracement levels that are important. For this pattern, focus on the B point a bit above the 0.786 retracement of the initial thrust, and the D point of pattern completion between the 1.272 and 1.618 levels. These Fibonacci tools are present in all modern charting packages and make calculation of critical levels instantaneous. 
Triggers usually are taken from the next lower time frame. In this case, dropping from the illustrated 60 minute time frame in which the pattern completed, a bearish engulfing candlestick completed on the next 30 minute candle. The bearish trade was triggered.

The next decision was the option structure that would be most efficient to capture the expected move. A major factor to consider in this decision was that the July options cycle was only 9 days from expiration. The worst performing trade was to buy out-of-the-money puts because of the rapid time decay the position would suffer. 

I also considered a put butterfly structure, but knew that adverse price action this close to expiration could be difficult to withstand.  Remember that butterflies react strongly to price change close to expiration because gamma becomes quite large. Another structure I considered was that of a calendar trade, selling the weekly option and buying the monthly. 

In the end, I decided to use the structure of a put vertical illustrated below. In this case I used a conservative structure, buying an in-the-money put, the 58 strike, and selling an at-the-money 56 strike. The chart below illustrates the profit and loss of a spread constructed in a 10x10 (10 Long July GDX 58 Puts / 10 Short July GDX 56 Puts) setup. 

The trade did not last long; I closed it approximately 24 hours later on stronger than expected price action and failure to get rapid follow through on the completed bearish butterfly pattern. The result of the trade was a return of 16.5% on invested capital.

Recognition of patterns not routinely followed by the investing herds can often lead to solid risk / reward trades. Using options in a knowledgeable fashion to structure these trades can further increase your probability of success.

If you would like to be informed several times per week on SP 500, Volatility Index, Gold, and Silver intermediate direction and options trade alerts… take a look at http://www.optionstradingsignals.com/specials/index.php  today for a 24 hour 66% off coupon, and/or sign up for our occasional free updates.

J.W. Jones is an independent options trader using multiple forms of analysis to guide his option trading strategies. Jones has an extensive background in portfolio analysis and analytics as well as risk analysis. J.W. strives to reach traders that are missing opportunities trading options and commits to writing content which is not only educational, but entertaining as well. Regular readers will develop the knowledge and skills to trade options competently over time. Jones focuses on writing spreads in situations where risk is clearly defined and high potential returns can be realized. 

This article is intended solely for information purposes. The opinions are those of the author only. Please conduct further research and consult your financial advisor before making any investment/trading decision. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in