Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Commodities Bull Cycle Will Endure until 2014 to 2022

Commodities / Gold & Silver Nov 14, 2007 - 10:02 AM GMT

By: Gold_Investments

Commodities Gold
Gold was down $8.90 to $797 per ounce in New York yesterday and silver was down 18 cents to $14.55 per ounce.

In the Access market in New York it was aggressively sold off and fell to support at $790 whereupon it bounced sharply and rallied in Asia and European trading and is up to $810.50 per ounce at 1230 GMT.


Oil has strengthened by about a dollar and the dollar has made a tentative recovery. Support is near the double low at $790 per ounce and below that at the 50 day moving average at $765.

Gold has risen again in GBP and EUR. It is trading at £393 GBP (up from £388) and €552 EUR (up from €549).

The long term trend for gold remains up and while speculators may drive the price down further in the short term they are likely to be confronted by strong physical buying by long term asset diversifiers (individual, institutional and central bank) especially with safe haven demand increasing significantly.

The smart money is the first to enter the nascent bull market and then the institutional money in the early part of the second phase of the bull market. This is where we are now. The final phase will see mass participation and mania in the bull market and that is likely to be seen between 2012 and 2020.

This is especially the case as commodities follow long term cycles as per the chart below. These cycles are normally of 15 to 25 year duration. Since 1803, there have only been five major upmoves in commodity prices, lasting about 22 years on average. The sixth major upmove began in 2001 and it's coinciding with the war on terror, just as previous upmoves also coincided with wars. In times of war there is increased demand for commodities for provisions and armaments manufacturing, governments overspend and debase the currency and people protect themselves with hard tangible assets.

Given this strong historical precedent and the current macroeconomic and geopolitical risks, it is likely that the current rise in commodities, gold and silver should last for at least another 10 years and probably more.

Jim Rogers is widely known as one of the most insightful commodities bulls in the market today.
Rogers agrees that the commodities market runs in what might be called “supercycles”; 10-20 year stretches when pent-up demand meets the long lead times required to bring on new supply, sending prices steadily higher. With China, India, wider Asia and other emerging markets growing fast, he thinks the current commodities bull market has plenty of room to go.

Yesterday Rogers said that "on the basis of historical precedent", he expects that "the lifespan of the current commodities cycle will endure until 2014 to 2022."

Forex and Gold
The dollar has continued to show tentative signs of recovery but is largely flat against the EUR at 1.4684 (from 1.4588) and GBP at 2.067 (from 2.068).

Silver
Silver sold off sharply yesterday and gave up much of the gains of last week. Silver is trading at $14.91 at 1230 GMT.

PGMs
Platinum was trading at $1431/1436 (1230 GMT).
Spot palladium was trading at $368/374 an ounce (1230 GMT).

Oil
Light, sweet crude for December delivery rose to $92.19.
On Tuesday, the contract fell $3.45 to settle at $91.17 a barrel. Only last Thursday, crude prices rose to an intraday record of $98.62 a barrel and appeared headed for $100, driven by a mixture of concerns about falling domestic supplies and rising demand, the threat of disruptions to the oil flow from the Middle East and actual breaks in production from Nigeria, according to Associated Press.

But analysts have long theorised that oil was also lifted by speculative buying incited by the dollar's long decline. And while some of the market's fundamental concerns seemed to be ebbing Tuesday, some of the selling was likely due in part to a reversal of those speculative bets.

Whether Tuesday's sharp decline marks the beginning of the end of an oil bubble remains to be seen. Analysts say investors who still believe oil will rise above $100 will swoop in to "buy the dips" whenever oil prices fall.

Gold Investments
63 Fitzwilliam Square
Dublin 2
Ireland
Ph +353 1 6325010
Fax  +353 1 6619664
Email info@gold.ie
Web www.gold.ie
Gold Investments
Tower 42, Level 7
25 Old Broad Street
London
EC2N 1HN
United Kingdom
Ph +44 (0) 207 0604653
Fax +44 (0) 207 8770708
Email info@goldinvestments.org
Web www.goldinvestments.org

Mission Statement
Gold and Silver Investments Limited hope to inform our clientele of important financial and economic developments and thus help our clientele and prospective clientele understand our rapidly changing global economy and the implications for their livelihoods and wealth.
We focus on the medium and long term global macroeconomic trends and how they pertain to the precious metal markets and our clienteles savings, investments and livelihoods. We emphasise prudence, safety and security as they are of paramount importance in the preservation of wealth.

Financial Regulation: Gold & Silver Investments Limited trading as Gold Investments is regulated by the Financial Regulator as a multi-agency intermediary. Our Financial Regulator Reference Number is 39656. Gold Investments is registered in the Companies Registration Office under Company number 377252 . Registered for VAT under number 6397252A . Codes of Conduct are imposed by the Financial Regulator and can be accessed at www.financialregulator.ie or from the Financial Regulator at PO Box 9138, College Green, Dublin 2, Ireland. Property, Commodities and Precious Metals are not regulated by the Financial Regulator

Disclaimer: The information in this document has been obtained from sources, which we believe to be reliable. We cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. It does not constitute a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any investment. Any person acting on the information contained in this document does so at their own risk. Recommendations in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Individual circumstances should be considered before a decision to invest is taken. Investors should note the following: The value of investments may fall or rise against investors' interests. Income levels from investments may fluctuate. Changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value of, or income from, investments denominated in foreign currencies. Past experience is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

All the opinions expressed herein are solely those of Gold & Silver Investments Limited and not those of the Perth Mint. They do not reflect the views of the Perth Mint and the Perth Mint accepts no legal liability or responsibility for any claims made or opinions expressed herein.

Fair Use Notice: This newsletter contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of issues of financial and economic significance. At all times we credit and attribute the copywrite owner and publication.
We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in Copyright Law. The material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for economic research purposes. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.

Gold Investments Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in