Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Silver Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 21
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 28th Nov 21
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year - 28th Nov 21
Sheffield First Snow Winter 2021 - Snowballs and Snowmen Fun - 28th Nov 21
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21
Stock Maket Trading Lesson - How to REALLY Trade Markets - 26th Nov 21
SILVER Price Trend Analysis - 26th Nov 21
Federal Reserve Asks Americans to Eat Soy “Meat” for Thanksgiving - 26th Nov 21
Is the S&P 500 Topping or Just Consolidating? - 26th Nov 21
Is a Bigger Drop in Gold Price Just Around the Corner? - 26th Nov 21
Financial Stocks ETF Sector XLF Pullback Sets Up A New $43.60 Upside Target - 26th Nov 21
A Couple of Things to Think About Before Buying Shares - 25th Nov 21
UK Best Fixed Rate Tariff Deal is to NOT FIX Gas and Electric Energy Tariffs During Winter 2021-22 - 25th Nov 21
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally - 24th Nov 21
How Silver Can Conquer $50+ in 2022 - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Betting on Hawkish Fed - 24th Nov 21
Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast - 24th Nov 21
Your once-a-year All-Access Financial Markets Analysis Pass - 24th Nov 21
Did Zillow’s $300 million flop prove me wrong? - 24th Nov 21
Now Malaysian Drivers Renew Their Kurnia Car Insurance Online With Fincrew.my - 24th Nov 21
Gold / Silver Ratio - 23rd Nov 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Can We Get To 5500SPX In 2022? But 4440SPX Comes First - 23rd Nov 21
A Month-to-month breakdown of how Much Money Individuals are Spending on Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks - 23rd Nov 21
Like the Latest Bond Flick, the US Dollar Has No Time to Die - 23rd Nov 21
Why BITCOIN NEW ALL TIME HIGH Changes EVERYTHING! - 22nd Nov 21
Cannabis ETF MJ Basing & Volatility Patterns - 22nd Nov 21
The Most Important Lesson Learned from this COVID Pandemic - 22nd Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 22nd Nov 21
UK Covid-19 Booster Jabs Moderna, Pfizer Are They Worth the Risk of Side effects, Illness? - 22nd Nov 21
US Dollar vs Yields vs Stock Market Trends - 20th Nov 21
Inflation Risk: Milton Friedman Would Buy Gold Right Now - 20th Nov 21
How to Determine if It’s Time for You to Outsource Your Packaging Requirements to a Contract Packer - 20th Nov 21
2 easy ways to play Facebook’s Metaverse Spending Spree - 20th Nov 21
Stock Market Margin Debt WARNING! - 19th Nov 21
Gold Mid-Tier Stocks Q3’21 Fundamentals - 19th Nov 21
Protect Your Wealth From PERMANENT Transitory Inflation - 19th Nov 21
Investors Expect High Inflation. Golden Inquisition Ahead? - 19th Nov 21
Will the Senate Confirm a Marxist to Oversee the U.S. Currency System? - 19th Nov 21
When Even Stock Market Bears Act Bullishly (What It May Mean) - 19th Nov 21
Chinese People do NOT Eat Dogs Newspeak - 18th Nov 21
CHINOBLE! Evergrande Reality Exposes China Fiction! - 18th Nov 21
Kondratieff Full-Season Stock Market Sector Rotation - 18th Nov 21
What Stock Market Trends Will Drive Through To 2022? - 18th Nov 21
How to Jump Start Your Motherboard Without a Power Button With Just a Screwdriver - 18th Nov 21
Bitcoin & Ethereum 2021 Trend - 18th Nov 21
FREE TRADE How to Get 2 FREE SHARES Fractional Investing Platform and ISA Specs - 18th Nov 21
Inflation Ain’t Transitory – But the Fed’s Credibility Is - 18th Nov 21
The real reason Facebook just went “all in” on the metaverse - 18th Nov 21
Biden Signs a Bill to Revive Infrastructure… and Gold! - 18th Nov 21
Silver vs US Dollar - 17th Nov 21
Silver Supply and Demand Balance - 17th Nov 21
Sentiment Speaks: This Stock Market Makes Absolutely No Sense - 17th Nov 21
Biden Spending to Build Back Stagflation - 17th Nov 21
Meshing Cryptocurrency Wealth Generation With Global Fiat Money Demise - 17th Nov 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 - 16th Nov 21
Stock Market Minor Cycle Correcting - 16th Nov 21
The INFLATION MEGA-TREND - Ripples of Deflation on an Ocean of Inflation! - 16th Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Geopolitical Instability in Middle East, Gold Like 1970s?

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011 Feb 01, 2011 - 08:35 AM GMT

By: GoldCore

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSpot gold and silver fell 6% and 9% respectively in January. The January price fall looks very much like another price correction and consolidation and is to be expected after the 30% rise in dollar terms seen in 2010. Absolutely nothing has changed with regard to the fundamentals of the gold and silver market and investors should use this sell off as another opportunity to diversify into the precious metals.


Correction: Yesterday our market update said that gold bar premiums in Hong Kong were at 17-year highs. They are in fact at 7-year highs, their highest level since 2004.

Gold in USD – 1 Year (Daily)

Gold’s 150 day moving average is at $1,310/oz and as can be seen in the chart above this has provided strong support in recent months. Interestingly, gold fell some 1.5% in January 2010 and continued to fall in February before bottoming after the first week in February (08/02/10). Gold then rose slightly in February, consolidated in March and rose strongly in April, May and June. July saw another correction prior the strong gains seen from August to December.

Gold in USD and British Sovereigns in USD – 30 Day (Daily) – Sovereign Premiums Rise

Nothing has changed regarding tight supply and robust demand and indeed, the geopolitical events in Tunisia, Yemen and Egypt and tensions in the Middle East provide another important catalyst for higher gold prices in 2011. With all the attention on Egypt, the risk of war between Iran and Israel and possibly the U.S. has been forgotten about – for now.

There is a concern that we could see geopolitical contagion and the crisis spreading to the undemocratic oil rich states of United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. This could lead to an oil crisis and at the very least it will likely lead to higher oil prices and most likely a sustained period of higher oil prices. This will lead to even higher trade deficits and inflation in oil importing countries - especially the U.S. which is one of the most oil dependent countries in the world.

The Middle East remains very unstable with real tensions between Israel and its Arab neighbours and Iran. The IMF's Managing Director, Strauss-Kahn, warned in Singapore overnight that "as tensions within countries increase, we could see rising social and political instability within nations -- even war."

Gold in USD – 1971-2011 (Weekly)

The two oil shocks of the 1970s saw gold prices rise by more than 24 fold (2,300%) in just 9 years - from $35/oz to $850/oz see chart above).

To put that in perspective, today gold's rise has been far more gradual and it has risen some 5 fold (430%) in 11 years - from $250/oz to $1,330/oz. In this regard it resembles gold’s rise from $35/oz in 1971 to nearly $200/oz in late 1974 – a six fold increase.

Given the significant macroeconomic, systemic, monetary and geopolitical risks of today gold is likely to perform again as it did in the 1970s. A 20 fold increase from trough in 1999 to peak sometime in the coming years would see gold rising to over $5000/oz .

This may seem outlandish to those unaware of gold's fundamentals but the very small supply of gold internationally, increasing demand (particularly from investors and central banks), the sovereign debt crisis in the EU (soon to spread to the U.S.) and the debasement of the dollar, the euro and other currencies internationally makes this increasingly possible.

Those who buy this price dip in gold and silver will likely be rewarded again. As ever rather than trying to predict the future price movement of any asset class investors and savers today need to diversify and protect themselves from the significant macroeconomic, systemic, monetary and geopolitical risk in the world today.

GOLD
Gold is trading at $1,337.48/oz, €972.64/oz and £830.48/oz.

SILVER
Silver is trading at $28.27/oz, €20.55/oz and £17.55/oz.

PLATINUM GROUP METALS
Platinum is trading at $1,804.85/oz, palladium at $819/oz and rhodium at $2,450/oz.

NEWS
(Wall Street Journal) --Barrick CFO: Central Banks May Shift More Reserves Into Gold
The world's biggest gold producer expects central banks will likely shift more of their monetary reserves into gold this year, as they worry about soaring stockpiles of U.S. dollars. Jamie Sokalsky, chief financial officer of Canada's Barrick Gold Corp., said there has been a "sea change'' in the past year, with central banks that had stocked up on U.S. dollars starting to buy more gold to diversify their holdings. Many forecasters say that trend will continue this year, since global currency reserves are approaching the $10 trillion mark—the bulk of it in U.S. dollars— even as a faltering economy and climbing debt load look set to depress the value of those dollars, said Mr. Sokalsky, in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.

(Bloomberg) -- Rand Refinery to Upgrade Refining to Boost Coins, Bus. Day Says
Rand Refinery Ltd. of South Africa will spend 500 million rand ($70 million) over the next five years to upgrade its gold and silver processes, Business Day reported, citing Managing Director Howard Craig.

The company will work with commercial banks to encourage retail buying of gold coins, the Johannesburg-based newspaper cited Craig as saying. The smelter’s capacity will double to 8,000 metric tons a year and production of refined silver will increase fourfold, it said.

(Bloomberg) -- Gold Gains as Inflation Concern, Egyptian Protests Boost Demand
Spot gold climbed, rebounding from the biggest monthly drop since 2009, on speculation that rising food and oil prices will increase the metal’s appeal as a hedge against inflation. Protests in Egypt also boosted haven demand.

(Bloomberg) -- Commodities Overtake Stocks, Bonds After Two-Day Gain on Egypt
The biggest two-day rally in commodities since December pushed raw materials past stocks, bonds and the dollar for a second month, after Egyptian riots drove oil, wheat and rice higher.

The S&P GSCI Total Return Index of 24 raw materials gained 3.1 percent in January and rose for a fifth month, the longest streak since 2004, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The MSCI All-Country World Index of equities climbed 1.6 percent including dividends. The U.S. Dollar Index, a gauge of the currency against six counterparts, fell 1.6 percent. The Global Broad Market Index for corporate and government bonds lost 0.2 percent as of Jan. 28, Bank of America Merrill Lynch data show.

Commodities have beaten stocks for three months, the longest stretch since June 2008, after the Federal Reserve pledged to buy $600 billion of Treasuries and demand for clothes and food lifted cotton, cocoa and copper. Equities were poised to break the streak until Jan. 28, when concern Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak will be ousted sent the MSCI gauge to its biggest retreat since November and boosted food and fuel.

(Bloomberg) -- Gold’s Biggest Gain in 12 Weeks Is ‘Capitulation’ End (Update1)
The “capitulation” in gold that drove the metal to its worst January in 14 years may be ending as escalating violence in northern Africa spurs demand for a haven and after a key technical indicator held.

Futures traded on the Comex exchange in New York jumped 1.7 percent on Jan. 28, the most since Nov. 4, as thousands of people took to the streets of Egyptian cities to protest the 30- year rule of President Hosni Mubarak. Gold earlier rebounded off its 150-day moving average, an indication the metal may surge 21 percent to a record by the end of June, according to technical analysis by the Hightower Report.

(Bloomberg) -- Mexico Gold Output Rose in November, Silver Declined (Update1)
Gold production in Mexico rose 3.3 percent in November to 5,264 kilograms from 5,095 kilograms in the year-ago period, the National Statistics Agency, known as Inegi, said today in a statement on its website.

Silver production declined 3.3 percent to 256,767 kilograms compared with 265,536 kilograms in 2009, Inegi said.

Copper production rose 4.6 percent to 19,291 tons in November compared with 18,449 tons in the same month a year ago, the national statistics agency said.

Overall, mining production in November rose 1.1 percent, Inegi said.

(Reuters) -- Policymakers see dollar losing reserve currency allure
The U.S. dollar's role as a reserve currency will diminish in the coming years as Asian economies like China grow and countries seek to diversify their monetary holdings, policymakers said on Friday.

The U.S. Federal Reserve's policy of quantitative easing -- essentially printing money -- and a call by France to look at ways to wean the world off the dollar as the sole reserve money have put the U.S. currency in the spotlight.

GOLDNOMICS


'GoldNomics' can be viewed by clicking on the image above or on our YouTube channel:
www.youtube.com/goldcorelimited

This update can be found on the GoldCore blog here.

Mark O'Byrne
Director

IRL
63
FITZWILLIAM SQUARE
DUBLIN 2

E info@goldcore.com

UK
NO. 1 CORNHILL
LONDON 2
EC3V 3ND

IRL +353 (0)1 632 5010
UK +44 (0)203 086 9200
US +1 (302)635 1160

W www.goldcore.com

WINNERS MoneyMate and Investor Magazine Financial Analysts 2006

Disclaimer: The information in this document has been obtained from sources, which we believe to be reliable. We cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. It does not constitute a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any investment. Any person acting on the information contained in this document does so at their own risk. Recommendations in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Individual circumstances should be considered before a decision to invest is taken. Investors should note the following: Past experience is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The value of investments may fall or rise against investors' interests. Income levels from investments may fluctuate. Changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value of, or income from, investments denominated in foreign currencies. GoldCore Limited, trading as GoldCore is a Multi-Agency Intermediary regulated by the Irish Financial Regulator.

GoldCore is committed to complying with the requirements of the Data Protection Act. This means that in the provision of our services, appropriate personal information is processed and kept securely. It also means that we will never sell your details to a third party. The information you provide will remain confidential and may be used for the provision of related services. Such information may be disclosed in confidence to agents or service providers, regulatory bodies and group companies. You have the right to ask for a copy of certain information held by us in our records in return for payment of a small fee. You also have the right to require us to correct any inaccuracies in your information. The details you are being asked to supply may be used to provide you with information about other products and services either from GoldCore or other group companies or to provide services which any member of the group has arranged for you with a third party. If you do not wish to receive such contact, please write to the Marketing Manager GoldCore, 63 Fitzwilliam Square, Dublin 2 marking the envelope 'data protection'

GoldCore Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in