Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22
Best Metaverse Tech Stocks Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 14th Jan 22
Gold Price Lagging Inflation - 14th Jan 22
Get Your Startup Idea Up And Running With These 7 Tips - 14th Jan 22
What Happens When Your Flight Gets Cancelled in the UK? - 14th Jan 22
How to Profit from 2022’s Biggest Trend Reversal - 11th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Ready To Drop To 4400SPX? - 11th Jan 22
What's the Role of an Affiliate Marketer? - 11th Jan 22
Essential Things To Know Before You Set Up A Limited Liability Company - 11th Jan 22
Fiscal and Monetary Cliffs Have Arrived - 10th Jan 22
The Meteoric Rise of Investing in Trading Cards - 10th Jan 22
IBM The REAL Quantum Metaverse STOCK! - 9th Jan 22
WARNING Failing NVME2 M2 SSD Drives Can Prevent Systems From Booting - Corsair MP600 - 9th Jan 22
The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history - 9th Jan 22
NVME M2 SSD FAILURE WARNING Signs - Corsair MP600 1tb Drive - 9th Jan 22
Meadowhall Sheffield Christmas Lights 2021 Shopping - Before the Switch on - 9th Jan 22
How Does Insurance Work In Europe? Find Out Here - 9th Jan 22
Effect of Deflation On The Gold Price - 7th Jan 22
Stock Market 2022 Requires Different Strategies For Traders/Investors - 7th Jan 22
Old Man Winter Will Stimulate Natural Gas and Heating Oil Demand - 7th Jan 22
Is The Lazy Stock Market Bull Strategy Worth Considering? - 7th Jan 22
What Elliott Waves Show for Asia Pacific Stock and Financial Markets 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
Why You Should Register Your Company - 6th Jan 2022
4 Ways to Invest in Silver for 2022 - 6th Jan 2022
UNITY (U) - Metaverse Stock Analysis Investing for 2022 and Beyond - 5th Jan 2022
Stock Market Staving Off Risk-Off - 5th Jan 2022
Gold and Silver Still Hungover After New Year’s Eve - 5th Jan 2022
S&P 500 In an Uncharted Territory, But Is Sky the Limit? - 5th Jan 2022

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

IMF To Soon Announce Completion of Gold Sales

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010 Nov 30, 2010 - 01:30 PM GMT

By: Julian_DW_Phillips


At the end of October the I.M.F. had 32.7 tonnes of gold left to be sold. In September they sold 32 tonnes of gold and in October 19.5 tonnes, in the open market. Should they continue selling at the pace of September then we would expect to hear the announcement in December and probably in the first half of December. If they continued the slower pace of selling of October then we will have to wait until January 2011 for the announcement. We believe that this is significant because it will signal the real end of "Official" selling of gold. The signatories of the Central Bank Gold Agreement, with the exception of small deals in coins have not sold for over a year now. With the completion of the I.M.F. sales the annual 400 tonnes of 'official' selling will not be available to the market.

We believe they have stopped selling as we look back on their activity in the last year. We accept that they still have a 'ceiling' of 400 tonnes sales a year, but this is now simply a gesture. Central banks are solid buyers, primarily taking up their own local supplies first. We have to consider that more and more gold producing countries may well buy their own local production further reducing the supply of gold to the London and other markets.

We should also now accept that the main driving force behind the gold price rise is from central banks, with other investment demand following.

Investment demand changes

At this point we should again be careful to note that more and more investment demand not only from Asia but in amongst the Western institutions, is not with a profit in mind. Their investments are becoming more and more because of the instabilities and uncertainties that surround the developed currency world. It is becoming more and more difficult to value assets internationally with currencies swinging backwards and forwards as they are now. Gold is a better place to hold wealth in these stormy days.

All from the head of the World Bank down are also aware of the useful role that gold can play in acting as a 'value reference point' Should this happen gold will have returned to the world of money in real terms, albeit in a slightly different role to the one it had in the past. We termed this in earlier issues of the Gold Forecaster as gold no longer being a 'means of exchange', but as a 'measure of value'

What happens to demand with a 400 tonne drop in supply?

A 400 tonne drop in supply in a balanced market will pressure the demand side to find more gold.

  • With mine supply pretty inelastic there will be only a small additional flow from that source.
  • With jewelry demand in the developed world back to former levels, only much higher prices will deter them.
  • With industrial demand [particularly electronics] now a necessity, demand is unlikely to be deterred by higher prices.
  • With demand in India after an excellent monsoon and good harvests and GDP growth at 8.9% Indians are keen to buy at these prices and will not be deterred except by sharply higher prices.
  • With the Chinese middle classes expanding rapidly as that country continues to develop, demand from there will continue to grow and most likely irrespective of the rising gold price.
  • Central Bank demand is unlikely to abate no matter what the price, because their interest is solely in acquiring tonnages of gold. We note that as part of their ongoing program of gold buying Russia also bought 18.66 tonnes in October [against the I.M.F. sale of 19.5 tonnes]. Not only are they buying local production but are present in the open market.

Consequently, the only additional source of supply will have to be scrap supply or supply from current holders. So we ask, "At what price will current holders sell?

Gold Forecaster regularly covers all fundamental and Technical aspects of the gold price in the weekly newsletter. To subscribe, please visit

By Julian D. W. Phillips
Gold-Authentic Money

Copyright 2009 Authentic Money. All Rights Reserved.
Julian Phillips - was receiving his qualifications to join the London Stock Exchange. He was already deeply immersed in the currency turmoil engulfing world in 1970 and the Institutional Gold Markets, and writing for magazines such as "Accountancy" and the "International Currency Review" He still writes for the ICR.

What is Gold-Authentic Money all about ? Our business is GOLD! Whether it be trends, charts, reports or other factors that have bearing on the price of gold, our aim is to enable you to understand and profit from the Gold Market.

Disclaimer - This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips, have based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips make no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion are those of Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips only and are subject to change without notice.

Julian DW Phillips Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in