Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Are Apple, Tesla, and Bitcoin Entering Market Technical Excess Top Phase? - 18th May 21
Gold Watch Out as Price May Be Staging New Momentum Base In Preparation For A Big Move Upwards - 18th May 21
Why the Demand for US Real Estate Licenses May Soon Fall into a Sinkhole - 18th May 21
Semiconductor Equipment Maker ASML Is at the Center of the Global Chip Shortage - 18th May 21
Could This Be The Hottest Investment Sector For 2021? - 18th May 21
TESLA Tech Stock Bubble BURSTS! Stock Price Heading for CRASH to below $400 - 18th May 21
The Most Exciting Biotech Stock Of The Year? - 17th May 21
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 17th May 21
Junior Gold Miners Should be Rallying – What’s Holding Them Back? - 17th May 21
Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
Learning the Financial Markets - 17th May 21
Is Stock Market Selling Madness About Over? - 16th May 21
Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
Budgies Birds of Paradise Indoor Grape Vine Singing, Chirping and Flying Parakeets Fun 3D VR180 UK - 16th May 21
Wall Street Roiled by Hot Inflation Data: Is This REALLY “Transitory”? - 16th May 21
Inflation Going Stag - 16th May 21
CHIA Coins After 1st Week of Plotting 140 Plot 14tb Farm. Crunching the Numbers How to Win - 15th May 21
Tips to Create the Best Cross-Functional Teams - 15th May 21
Gold: Lose a Battle to Win the War - 14th May 21
Are You Invested in America’s “Two-Hour Boom” Fast Shipping Stocks? - 14th May 21
Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
6 Solid Signs You Should Have Your Smart Device Repaired Right Away - 14th May 21
Ways to Finance Your Business Growth - 14th May 21
Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
How Much CHIA Coins Profit from 100 Plot 10tb Farm? Hard Drive Space Mining - 13th May 21
Stock Market Bulls Getting Caught in the Whirlwind - 13th May 21
Legoland Windsor Mini land and Sky Train Virtual Tour in VR 360 - UK London Holidays 2021 - 13th May 21
Peak Growth and Inflation - 13th May 21
Where’s The Fed? Watch Precious Metals For Signs Of Inflation Panic - 13th May 21
Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
India Covid Apocalypse Heralds Catastrophe for Pakistan and Bangladesh - 13th May 21
TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
Gold Price During Hyperinflation - 12th May 21
Stock Market Extending Phase Two? - 12th May 21
Crypto 101 for new traders – ETH or BTC? - 12th May 21
Stock Market Enters Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast Time Window - 11th May 21
GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
Cathy Wood Bubble Bursts as ARK Funds CRASH! Enter into a Severe Bear Market - 11th May 21
Apply This Technique to Stop Rushing into Trades - 10th May 21
Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
CHIA Getting Started SSD Crypto Mining by Plotting and Farming on Your Hard Drives Guide - 9th May 21
Yaheetech Mesh Best Cheap Computer /. Gaming Chairs on Amazon Review - 9th May 21
Breaking US Trade Embargo with Cuba - Build 7 Computers in 14 Hours Before Ship Sales Challenge - 9th May 21
Dripcoin Applies New Technology That Provides Faster Order Execution - 9th May 21
Capital Gains Tax Hike News: Was It REALLY to Blame for Sell-off? - 7th May 21
Stock Market Transportation Index Continues To Grind Higher - 7th May 21
SPX Stock Market Correction Arriving or Not? - 7th May 21
How to Invest in an Online Casino? - 7th May 21
Gold & Silver Begin New Advancing Cycle Phase - 6th May 21
Vaccine Economic Boom and Bust - 6th May 21
USDX, Gold Miners: The Lion and the Jackals - 6th May 21
What If You Turn Off Your PC During Windows Update? Stuck on Automatic Repair Nightmare! - 6th May 21
4 Insurance Policies You Should Consider Buying - 6th May 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market At Critical Juncture

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010 Nov 08, 2010 - 05:49 AM GMT

By: Money_Morning


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJon D. Markman writes: Stocks rose gently like heat waves off a radiator over the past week, as traders guessed, assessed and processed the results of the midterm elections and the Federal Reserve's decision to try to light a fire under the U.S. economy by buying a $75-billion pile of fresh, new Treasury bonds every 30 days for the next eight months.

The major indexes rose 3.5% amid a set of sessions when banks finally found footing, as they were the best performing group, up 1%. Laggards were industrials and utilities, ending flat. Breadth was positive, favoring advancers by 2-1. And the number of new highs swelled to 1,200 while new lows also rose, to 80.

Technically the market is at a very important juncture. Stocks have treated the 1,220 level as if it were an electric fence for the past two years. First it was the original bear-market low in July 2008 after the government said it would back the reeling banks Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNMA) and Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC). Second, it was the spot through which stocks fell in September 2008 after the Lehman Brothers collapse. Third, stocks topped here in April following the BP oil well blowout and SEC indictment of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS). And now here we are again.

Bears think #3 will repeat and stocks will collapse back into a black pit of despair. My expectation is that there is potential for an upside version of #2, with stocks pushing up toward 1,400. I have said that banks, chip makers and energy companies would have to get in gear for that to happen -- and now, amazingly enough, that is happening, now that political, monetary and economic uncertainties are firming up. Make sure you are properly positioned.

One caveat before we move on: If this 1,220 test fails, then all bets are off. The next week is critical. Stay on your toes.


Wednesday provided a streak of jubilation for Republicans, bravado for Tea Partiers and humility for the Democrats, though none of it will affect stock prices much. My experience shows that inertia, the bureaucracy and lobbyists really run the show in Washington and politics has way less impact than most believe.

Here's what you need to know:

-- The Fed delivered on quantitative easing as expected. This is no small matter because there were many analysts who said they might not pull it off. Technically, the Fed intends to buy $600 billion in two- to ten-year Treasurys by July next year at a pace of around $75 billion per month. It said it would review this pace in light of new information and could adjust. Some people expected a $100 billion/month clip while others expected less -- so this news falls in the center. The Fed will also continue to reinvest principal payments from its securities holdings, which you can figure adds another $300 billion to its arsenal.

Quick historical note: Keep in mind that the three times the Federal Reserve pumped money into the system in a big way in the 1990s were 1991 (recession + banking crisis); 1998 (Asian contagion); 1999 (Y2k fears). They had the effect of kicking up the S&P 500 by 5x including dividends, as shown in the chart of the Vanguard S&P 500 Index fund above.

-- There was some better economic data that got lost in the shuffle. Automatic Data Processing's (NASDAQ: ADP) private payrolls rose 43,000 in October, more than double consensus estimates for a 20K gain. The service sector recovery also gained some additional traction in October, as the ISM non-manufacturing index rose to a better-than-expected 54.3 last month from 53.2 in September and 51.5 in August. Details were upbeat as new orders rose to 56.7 in October from 54.9 in September, the highest since July, while order backlogs and employment also improved and the business activity index hit its highest level since May. Auto sales were rocking, as Chrysler reported sales up 37%, Ford reported sales up 23% and GM reported sales up 7.3%.

- Homebuilders stocks jumped following speculation that Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN) might go private. Our favorite pick in this sector for the past seven months has been timber grower and developer Rayonier Inc. (NYSE: RYN), which has grown steadily for three decades and pays a 4.1% dividend. Ace timing analyst Tom McClelland pointed out in a letter to clients last night that homebuilders' stocks follow the price of raw lumber by a year. And it was exactly a year ago that lumber prices jumped 70% in a shocking advance over a four-month period.

-- Rubber and cotton prices continued to rocket in overnight markets, both setting new highs. One of my hedge-fund mentors always told me to pay close attention to "minor markets" because that is where cracks in the consensus investment narrative appear first. Higher rubber prices have resulted from massive floods impairing the crops in major rubber growing regions of Thailand and the Philippines, as mentioned yesterday.

Bloomberg notes that this is tightening supply at a time when rubber stockpiles in China, the world's largest buyer, have plunged 71% from this year's high. This is going to really dent profitability at U.S. companies like The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: GT), which is already one of the worst performing S&P 500 stocks this year. Meanwhile cotton rose another 4.2 cents to a record 138.48 per pound. The New York Times has finally noticed, with an article Wednesday noting that apparel makers' earnings could take a hit because they can't raise prices fast enough to compensate for input cost increases.

-- Midterm election results conformed to consensus expectations of the GOP taking over the House while the Democrats retained the Senate. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at S&P, put out a research piece in the afternoon outlining how markets have done in the past under three scenarios: Total Unity (one party has presidency and both houses of Congress; Partial Gridlock (one party has presidency, and they split the House and Senate; and Total Gridlock (one party has presidency, the other has both chambers of Congress).

His data showed that the market has performed best since 1900 in Total Unity regimes (which we are exiting), with a 7.6% annual return; followed by Partial Gridlock (which we are entering), with a 6.8% annual return; and Total Gridlock, with a 2% annual return. He speculates Partial Gridlock works well because the executive and legislative branches are forced to work together to initiate and approve legislation that is appealing to the greatest majority of the country. Best sectors in Partial Gridlock years, posting double-digit advances, have been consumer staples, energy, health care and technology.

-- Looking ahead to 2012, analysts at Politico remind that that the last three presidents who had similar midterm election losses (Eisenhower, Truman and Clinton) all won reelection. How does Obama become the fourth? Probably by tacking back to the middle, like Clinton, with concessions on tax cuts and a slimmed down domestic agenda.

-- Last thought: If the Fed's large-scale asset purchases don't work to improve employment and lift inflation by July 2011, expect this round of easing to continue. QE3, QE4, QE5 -- it's all possible. I said two weeks ago that top economists have privately said that the Fed could theoretically more than double its balance sheet from current levels, up to say $4 trillion. Don't think it can't happen.

Bottom line: These are all green lights for investors. Interest rates are low, the Fed is accommodative, credit markets are open and GDP growth is over 2%. It's all good. Put your money to work. Don't delay. Check out my newsletter for recommendations, which have been ripping higher -- but there is plenty of room for additional gains. Big ones. No kidding.


Here's a quick look at the coming week's economic data milestones, with a big assist from Econoday. There is nothing to speak of happening on Monday or Tuesday.

Wednesday: International trade balance. (Consensus Forecast for September 10: -$45.0 billion

Range: -$47.5 billion to -$43.0 billion). ... Jobless Claims. (Consensus Forecast for 11/6/10: 450,000 Range: 440,000 to 455,000) .... U.S. Treasury monthly budget report. (Consensus Forecast for October 10: -$148.0 billion Range: -$160.0 billion to -$140.0 billion.

Thursday: U.S. Holiday: Veterans Day. Stocks and Futures Markets Open.

Friday: The Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index. Consumer sentiment: 69.0. Range: 68.0 to 70.5

[Editor's Note: Money Morning Contributing Writer Jon D. Markman has a unique view of both the world economy and the global financial markets. With uncertainty the watchword and volatility the norm in today's markets, low-risk/high-profit investments will be tougher than ever to find.

It will take a seasoned guide to uncover those opportunities.

Markman is that guide.

In the face of what's been the toughest market for investors since the Great Depression, it's time to sweep away the uncertainty and eradicate the worry. That's why investors subscribe to Markman's Strategic Advantage newsletter every week: He can see opportunity when other investors are blinded by worry.

Subscribe to Strategic Advantage and hire Markman to be your guide. For more information, please click here.]

Source :

Money Morning/The Money Map Report

©2010 Monument Street Publishing. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), of content from this website, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Monument Street Publishing. 105 West Monument Street, Baltimore MD 21201, Email:

Disclaimer: Nothing published by Money Morning should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investent advice. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication, or 72 hours after the mailing of printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended by Money Morning should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

Money Morning Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in