Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - 8th Apr 24
Gold Is Rallying Again, But Silver Could Get REALLY Interesting - 8th Apr 24
Media Elite Belittle Inflation Struggles of Ordinary Americans - 8th Apr 24
Profit from the Roaring AI 2020's Tech Stocks Economic Boom - 8th Apr 24
Stock Market Election Year Five Nights at Freddy's - 7th Apr 24
It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- 7th Apr 24
AI Revolution and NVDA: Why Tough Going May Be Ahead - 7th Apr 24
Hidden cost of US homeownership just saw its biggest spike in 5 years - 7th Apr 24
What Happens To Gold Price If The Fed Doesn’t Cut Rates? - 7th Apr 24
The Fed is becoming increasingly divided on interest rates - 7th Apr 24
The Evils of Paper Money Have no End - 7th Apr 24
Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - 3rd Apr 24
Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend - 2nd Apr 24
Dow Stock Market Annual Percent Change Analysis 2024 - 2nd Apr 24
Bitcoin S&P Pattern - 31st Mar 24
S&P Stock Market Correlating Seasonal Swings - 31st Mar 24
S&P SEASONAL ANALYSIS - 31st Mar 24
Here's a Dirty Little Secret: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Is Still Loose - 31st Mar 24
Tandem Chairman Paul Pester on Fintech, AI, and the Future of Banking in the UK - 31st Mar 24
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

UK House Prices Fall For Second Consecutive Month

Housing-Market / UK Housing Sep 02, 2010 - 09:52 AM GMT

By: Nationwide

Housing-Market

  • Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHouse prices fell by 0.9% in August
  • Three month rate of change shows price stagnation over the summer
  • Percentage of borrowers on variable rates has increased

Commenting on the figures Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said:

“House prices fell by 0.9% month-on-month (m/m) in August, following a decline of 0.5% m/m in July. This is the first time since February 2009 that house prices have fallen in two consecutive months. The 3 month on 3 month rate of change – generally a smoother indicator of the recent price trend – fell from 1.2% in July to 0.0% in August, suggesting that house prices have essentially stagnated over the summer. Unless house prices bounce back strongly in September, the three month rate of change will turn negative next month. The annual rate of inflation – which compares the current average price with the price level twelve months ago – remained in positive territory at 3.9%. However, it is down quite sharply from rates of 6.6% in July and 8.7% in June.

“Recent market trends remain consistent with an unwinding of the supply-demand imbalance that drove up prices for much of the last year. As more sellers have returned to the market, buyers have a greater selection of properties to choose from and more bargaining power with which to bid down asking prices. There is little evidence of distressed selling, however, with the Council of Mortgage Lenders’ second quarter figures showing another drop in mortgage arrears and possessions. As such, the current period of price declines is likely to remain relatively modest. Given that the price increases of the last year had gotten ahead of the recovery in the wider economy, the current correction is not an unhealthy development.

More borrowers on variable rates

“Over the last two years, there have been significant changes to the characteristics of the mortgage stock, particularly with regard to the proportion of lending on fixed rate mortgages. Between the final quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2010, the proportion of mortgage balances on fixed rates fell from 48% to 36%, as fewer borrowers coming to the end of a fixed rate deal chose to remortgage onto a new fixed rate. This is primarily because of the availability of attractive standard variable rates.

“Borrowers on variable rates have experienced a very large cash flow benefit from the reduction in the Bank of England base rate in late 2008 and early 2009. The average rate paid on variable rate mortgage balances across the market was only 2.8% in June, compared to 5.9% in September 2008 and 5.3% for fixed rate balances (Source: Bank of England). The additional cash flow from lower mortgage rates has been instrumental in keeping arrears and possessions relatively low during the recession, helping house prices to stage the rebound seen between early 2009 and the middle of 2010.

“However, while the increasing proportion of variable rate mortgage balances has allowed more borrowers to benefit from the low level of the Bank of England base rate, it also means that more households are exposed to potential future increases in interest rates. Should the proportion of variable rate mortgage balances remain high, the impact of base rate increases on monthly repayments, and therefore house prices, may be larger than in the past.

“At the moment, however, interest rates appear likely to remain at their current level until well into 2011. Any increases thereafter are likely to be relatively gradual, leaving variable rate borrowers with some time to switch to fixed rates if they desire greater certainty over their monthly repayments.”

Martin Gahbauer
Chief Economist
Tel: 01793 655434
fionnuala.earley@nationwide.co.uk
Roy Beale
Media Relations Officer
Tel: 01793 655689
roy.beale@nationwide.co.uk

Notes: Indices and average prices are produced using Nationwide's updated mix adjusted House Price Methodology which was introduced with effect from the first quarter of 1995. Price indices are seasonally adjusted using the US Bureau of the Census X12 method. Currently the calculations are based on a monthly data series starting from January 1991. Figures are recalculated each month which may result in revisions to historical data. The Nationwide Monthly House Price Index is prepared from information which we believe is collated with care, but no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness. We reserve the right to vary our methodology and to edit or discontinue the whole or any part of the Index at any time, for regulatory or other reasons. Persons seeking to place reliance on the Index for their own or third party commercial purposes do so entirely at their own risk. All changes are nominal and do not allow for inflation. More information on the house price index methodology along with time series data and archives of housing research can be found at www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/

Nationwide Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in