Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

U.S. Housing Market and Sector Stocks at Significant Crossroads

Housing-Market / Housing Stocks Aug 23, 2010 - 11:45 AM GMT

By: Tim_Wood

Housing-Market

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn 2005 I used cyclical analysis to identify the top in housing.   That topping process was covered in a series of articles posted here in 2005 and into 2006, as the topping process matured and then eventually became obvious to all.   Cyclically, housing is now at another important crossroads.


The Philadelphia Housing Index peaked in July 2005, which was some 27 months ahead of the equity markets.  But, like the equity markets and most everything else, a low was found in early 2009.   Please refer to the weekly chart of the Philadelphia Housing Index below. 

I have been saying ever since that low was made that the equity markets have been in a counter-trend bear market rally.   In accordance with Dow theory, this rally should prove to separate Phase I from Phase II of the much longer-term ongoing secular bear market.   If so, then housing has likely not made its final bottom and we can again use cycles to guide us.   In the chart below I have marked the intermediate-term cycle lows with an “I” inside of a red box.    From the March 2009 low, price obviously moved up and into an intermediate-term high and into a higher intermediate-term low.   The fact that an intermediate-term low has been made at a higher level was a positive development.  But, in the case of housing, we now have a new intermediate-term cycle underway and it is at risk of making something called a left-translated top.  

Let me explain.  Note that as the housing index moved up in 2003 and 2004, the intermediate-term cycle advances were much longer than the intermediate-term declines. In other words, the cycle advanced beyond its mid-point and as a result, this is called right translation, which is a bullish cyclical trait.   Now note how the intermediate-term cycle advance out of the April 2005 intermediate-term cycle low peaked to the left of its center point, which set that cycle up in a left-translated configuration, which was bearish.   As a result of this left-translated intermediate-term cycle top, the index fell below its previous intermediate-term cycle low as it declined into the next cycle low, which is also a trait of left-translated cycles.  

From the July 2006 intermediate-term cycle low the housing index moved up into the February 2007 intermediate-term cycle high, which again was a right translated cycle and note that the decline into the following intermediate-term cycle low held above the previous cycle low, which is a trait of right-translated cycles.   However, look what happened when the advance out of the April 2007 cycle low peaked in yet another left-translated manner.  This was then followed once again by another left-translated cycle that peaked in February 2008 immediately following its cycle low and once again, lower prices followed into the 2009 low.    Again, the advance out of that low was right translated and note that the decline into the following cycle low held above the previous intermediate-term cycle low.    This now brings us to the most recent intermediate-term cycle low and thus far the advance out of that low has been weak and is in fact at risk of making a left-translated cycle top.  

Thus, housing is at a significant crossroads.   Any further decline below the recent low could prove to simply be an additional leg down into the intermediate-term cycle low.  But, based on what I see at this time, if the recent intermediate-term cycle low is violated, it will, until proven otherwise, appear to set another left-translated cycle into motion.  It is my opinion that housing is a key economic indicator and it is at an important juncture.  If another left-translated cycle does in fact unfold, then I fail to see how the so-called “recovery” can continue.   The key at that point will be the cyclical developments in other areas such as equities, bonds and commodities.    Developments surrounding Dow theory will also be important as will the development of the DNA Marker I’ve found that has occurred at all major tops since 1896.   I sincerely hope that people are listening.  As I have warned all along, this is a bear market rally and the economy has not been in recovery mode, but rather in dead cat bounce mode in association with the bear market rally.  The commentators on TV did not warn you of the top in housing in 2005, the top in commodities in 2008 or of the top in the stock market in 2000 or 2007 and they are not warning you of what is occurring now.  Reason being, they don’t know and even if they did, they could not and would not tell you.    More information and details of what is really occurring are available for those with the eyes and ears to hear.       

 

I have begun doing free market commentary that is available at www.cyclesman.info/Articles.htm   The specifics on Dow theory, my statistics, model expectations, and timing are available through a subscription to Cycles News & Views and the short-term updates.  I have gone back to the inception of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1896 and identified the common traits associated with all major market tops.  Thus, I know with a high degree of probability what this bear market rally top will look like and how to identify it.  These details are covered in the monthly research letters as it unfolds.   I also provide important turn point analysis using the unique Cycle Turn Indicator on the stock market, the dollar, bonds, gold, silver, oil, gasoline, the XAU and more.   A subscription includes access to the monthly issues of Cycles News & Views covering the Dow theory, and very detailed statistical based analysis plus updates 3 times a week.

By Tim Wood
Cyclesman.com

© 2010 Cycles News & Views; All Rights Reserved
Tim Wood specialises in Dow Theory and Cycles Analysis - Should you be interested in analysis that provides intermediate-term turn points utilizing the Cycle Turn Indicator as well as coverage on the Dow theory, other price quantification methods and all the statistical data surrounding the 4-year cycle, then please visit www.cyclesman.com for more details. A subscription includes access to the monthly issues of Cycles News & Views covering the stock market, the dollar, bonds and gold. I also cover other areas of interest at important turn points such as gasoline, oil, silver, the XAU and recently I have even covered corn. I also provide updates 3 times a week plus additional weekend updates on the Cycle Turn Indicator on most all areas of concern. I also give specific expectations for turn points of the short, intermediate and longer-term cycles based on historical quantification.

Tim Wood Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in