Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
How Stagflation Effects Stocks - 5th Dec 21
Bitcoin FLASH CRASH! Cryptos Blood Bath as Exchanges Run Stops, An Early Christmas Present for Some? - 5th Dec 21
TESCO Pre Omicron Panic Christmas Decorations Festive Shop 2021 - 5th Dec 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 - 4th Dec 21
INVESTING LESSON - Give your Portfolio Some Breathing Space - 4th Dec 21
Don’t Get Yourself Into a Bull Trap With Gold - 4th Dec 21
4 Tips To Help You Take Better Care Of Your Personal Finances- 4th Dec 21
What Is A Golden Cross Pattern In Trading? - 4th Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - Part 2 - 3rd Dec 21
Stock Market Major Turning Point Taking Place - 3rd Dec 21
The Masters of the Universe and Gold - 3rd Dec 21
This simple Stock Market mindset shift could help you make millions - 3rd Dec 21
Will the Glasgow Summit (COP26) Affect Energy Prices? - 3rd Dec 21
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock - 1st Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years - 1st Dec 21 t
Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? - 1st Dec 21
Main Differences Between the UK and Canadian Gaming Markets - 1st Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - 30th Nov 21
Omicron Covid Wave 4 Impact on Financial Markets - 30th Nov 21
Can You Hear It? That’s the Crowd Booing Gold’s Downturn - 30th Nov 21
Economic and Market Impacts of Omicron Strain Covid 4th Wave - 30th Nov 21
Stock Market Historical Trends Suggest A Strengthening Bullish Trend In December - 30th Nov 21
Crypto Market Analysis: What Trading Will Look Like in 2022 for Novice and Veteran Traders? - 30th Nov 21
Best Stocks for Investing to Profit form the Metaverse and Get Rich - 29th Nov 21
Should You Invest In Real Estate In 2021? - 29th Nov 21
Silver Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 21
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 28th Nov 21
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year - 28th Nov 21
Sheffield First Snow Winter 2021 - Snowballs and Snowmen Fun - 28th Nov 21
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Gold Market Trend Review, The Bull Bear Debate

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010 Jun 30, 2010 - 05:54 PM GMT

By: JD_Rosendahl


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere’s a lot of buzz about whether the gold market continues higher, or whether it’s time for a correction.  The short answer is both are still a viable option.

Below is the daily chart of GLD.  It’s grinding higher within a narrowing band of resistance and support trend lines.  It looks tired based on divergences on both the RSI and MACD.

A break out is surely coming in the near future.  A break below the red trend line is not terribly bearish, but a break below the black trend line is a more bearish signal.  That daily black trend line is also the trend line on the weekly chart below.

The weekly chart reflects bearish divergences on both the RSI and MACD, and volume has declined into recent highs.  That also looks tired based on divergences on both the RSI and MACD.

Below is the monthly chart of GLD.  The good news is the monthly MACD has made a new high recently with price, and no bearish divergence exists.  That leads me to believe the secular gold bull is still intact even if a near term correction begins.

The crux of the bull bear debate is essentially the following:

Melt ups occur from over bought conditions, especially in bubble conditions.  The monthly MACD currently allows for more time for this to occur.  Should GLD break above the daily resistance trend line a melt up could occur because there is no overhead resistance. 

However, should the monthly MACD roll over, a correction of size in price and/or time is due.  My down side targets are the monthly trend line, which is where the 50 month MA resides.  My secondary target is the red line, which is price support.  We haven’t visited the 50 month MA in ten years and it’s over due for a test.

Summary:  Based on the technical structure of GLD, the risk is elevated for a larger sell off compared to the prior correction.  The GLD simply looks tired.  Therefore, we have sold a third of our gold bar position, and a couple of gold stocks.  In essence, we have cut our total gold/gold stock position in half.  It’s simply based on elevated risk, and we manage from the risk side first, making money second.

If we get the melt up, we will choose a time to unload, which may require patience or an averaging out strategy.  If we get the self off or correction we look to average back into metals.  If it is the sell off, it will take the monthly MACD months maybe a couple years to reach the zero line where I want to re-enter the PM market.

By J.D. Rosendahl

J.D. Rosendahl was a former stock broker/investment consultant (currently not licensed) before becoming a Commercial Banker for the past 14 years. He manages his family's wealth, helping them avoid the high tech bubble and the real estate bubble melt downs and preserving wealth.

© 2010 Copyright J.D. Rosendahl - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in