F.I.R.E. and F.E.A.R. In the NEW Economy
Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010 May 25, 2010 - 03:42 AM GMTBy: Brian_M_Thiesen
Well here we go. It seems that it is possible some very interesting times may be upon us, although not new but interesting for sure.
The new FEAR (F&$% Everything And RUN) scenario may be playing out before our eyes and may grow quite a bit stronger in the coming days weeks and months.
This of course may catch many by surprise but not those who may be able to see this. This may or may not include myself. However there was a time when others like me had said that in these times rising will occur in a few very minute but important categories…. Mainly the VIX and the DXY, which any of you who have read any of my previous writings can remember.
Of course now this may seem obvious, but of course now in this day and age is sometimes too late. Especially calling your broker after getting your next monthly statement and telling them to sell NOW (surely to be met by, “don’t make any emotional decisions,” which the reply of course should be “I thought I didn’t have to make my own decisions”)
Which is where FIRE is likely to change from near useless jobs (not by all in these areas but many) Into things that WILL MATTER and they are Farmers Inventors Realists Entrepreneurs!
These will be the people that hold it together not the politicians etc. who are in the best of times useless.
In the FEAR times that means F#@$ Everything And RUN not FEEPM (F&$% Everything Except Precious Metals) Which is what I have been trying to say for so long. But of course will allow myself to get %$*&ed for this “Call”
Ask yourself when was the last time you got scared into buying something? Is fear what people use in the bottom of their gut before they make a big or small buy? Except of course to note there is a time to buy when others are scared.
When I bought RE in the past it was not because I was scared into it, this certainly will NOT be the case for gold or silver or platinum or palladium etc. Or stocks etc.
You will NOT be seeing BIG RED BOARDS with gold in shiny green or yellow, in such a case all will be sold regardless of fundamentals etc. Which is what we are seeing in the past few weeks or so.
Many have been off on these calls and I know I have for sure mistimed these things, however those that may have taken the advice who are not day traders etc. Would surely have won out when this is all said and done and that is the majority of the public for sure. Let’s say the Dow heads back down to 9000 or so for a bit, those that sold or did not buy the rally wouldn’t be in to bad of shape, and obviously the further down the better. Would they have been that bad off to take the advice when the dow was at 9500-10500 which the dow spent much time at and dragged on at for months? Definitely barring a nice big launch back up those who were dollar coast averaging or decided to lop down a nice chunk at 11k dow would have been better to sit on the cash throne.
If it is gold rips down to $1050 (Just wanted to point out that little symbol that means DOLLARS in front of that number for all those who were chastising the DXY bulls at DXY 74) would they have been that bad off to sell at 1200 (I will fully admit right here I was dumping much at 1125-1200 range but surely know it is possible I could be made the fool. However still have some and don’t doubt the dollar one day will be useless.
(anyone noticing so many currencies going to the 1 area? Hmmmmm)
As an aside to that was chatting to some old ladies and they were telling me of europe when in Budapest in particular gold and apples were at par among other edibles or Necessities. Of course you will say well gold got them that apple, but by most accounts it should have gotten them the orchard too!! These accounts are so Wisely peddled today.
So in this case again I will repeat gold etc. will not be rushed to out of fear but rather rushed out of especially when margins and otherwise are concerned.
The calls for inflation in ways make sense but when you look at money printing vs where the money is actually going (nowhere but into ever-growing giant black holes, M3 etc.) it seems very hard for this to work. Case in point is wasn’t it that when the Flash Crash happened the market lost $1 Trillion? Anyone remember any other $1 trillion gettting thrown around near precisely that time?
Do we really know how bad the banks are bleeding? I saw somewhere that a german bank realized a healthy %80 loss on some of its bonds in 1 Quarter! What of the rest? Maybe trillions in losses, we know in the Ustates alone pensions are “missing” close to 3 trillion which is likely the same globally. These are just a few things let alone housing and commercial RE in the states alone are still plunging and delinquencies of all kinds are still setting monthly records while no one really knows how many houses the banks are keeping on their books that are junk tied to other junked junk.
Sad to say but it seems they are not printing fast enough, even sadder printing is seen as the cause for inflation of all things. I doubt this will be true
As some know continually I am on about food prices will be where the inflation is. This will be from many angles. Some new and some old.
Supply line shutdowns as truckers, farmers etc. run out of cash/credit etc. The furry of mother nature which unless you have been under a rock you must surely recognize. In saying this many will say “this has happened since the dawn of time” and will also attribute it to media “Sensationalization” or whatnot. While at no-time examining frequency and total damage which is immense in all cases. These things above all will cause inflation and the inflation that will be noticed by the masses as it is in things that matter not PIIGGSF bond swaps and the like.
Not the least of which is the WORLD’S NUMBER 1 ECOLOGICAL DISASTER, that continues by the second and will destroy more of the worlds food supplies then anyone cares to even think of.
Knowing for certain this thing is likely 10-30X worse than reported, will likely not be solved for a very very long time, may or may not have been done on purpose.
There is no doubt in my mind large % of the food chain will be disrupted because of this and it will be inland Florida, Georgia etc. as well not just in the water which I will also say nearly anything in there if it is not already destroyed will be and the only thing that will keep masses of fish etc. from washing ashore in biblical fashion is oil. People of course will have to turn to other things inland but does anyone considere hurricanes etc. tossing all this oil about? Sending it inland?
It is likely that soon they will (and can since no one can see down there because of NS reasons) say they solved it etc. to get the world off their backs and this 5000 a day number that you cannot escape from reading instantly as soon as you see this story to be sure you are bombarded with this lie of a number will be “contained” who knows maybe that’s where all the subprime loans went !!!! (couldn’t help myself)
There are millions if not a few 100 million or so or more that rely directly on this food from this plentiful area. MARK THESE WORDS this will be a catastrophe of beyond biblical proportions. This will cause infllation via lack of supply of goods not increase supply of cash.
The coastal peope will likely be pulling a real FEAR to other places and states, which I doubt will bode well for the already destroyed economies (condo prices, tourism etc. ) of thes coastal states and likely will not help the next states welfare and ei rolls.
As an aside it amazes me that even some small portions of the 100’s of k of troops the usa cant be diverted for 1 second to help this cause even the ones in Haiti or Colombia etc. How about some of the 50 k in Japan? Surely they could do the “AMERICAN” and“PATRIOTIC” thing right?
Maybe the ones in Haiti have to stay so that relief effort mastermind Bush 2 can put up a huge mission accomplished sign all over haiti and he and Bill can reap huge profits dividing up the country. Besides blood is spilling there so not a drop of oil more is missed !!! It is likely the amount of oil coming may in the end althoug we may never know end uo near the amount of flesh wasted on the stuff (that was my Karmesoteric Humanity Flash Bash for the day)
So moving forward where will this lead us in the future? People who are now, are willing to, and can do things that mean something will prosper and it likely will not be hitting buy and sell orders or flipping condos or sitting on your hoards of gold or silver.
It is possible you may actually have to do something that will be remotely beneficial to others. And if you don’t feel like it now that is ok you will be forced to because FEAR will make FIRE and the ones who realize it first will prosper because it will be they who will be able to walk the landscape fully prepared for what is to come and in preparation systems can be divised and in such emotion can be tamed and in such WISDOM can prevail.
Brian M. Thiesen brianthiesen@yahoo.ca
Authour “Time Filter,” “Egolution”
Guy who believes the system is the exact mirror of the real machine that claims it is in control up until the point it goes “wrong” then blames the other furthering its ability to be a victim in a system that is “truly” without. A true system that overrides the market although most would believe this impossible and it is they who care only for their ends and they who are so much like those they despise.
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