Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
The Major Advantages Of Getting Your PhD Online - 12th Apr 21
Covid-19 Pandemic Current State for UK, US, Europe, Brazil Vaccinations vs Lockdown's Third Wave - 12th Apr 21
Why These Stock Market Indicators Should Grab Your Full Attention - 12th Apr 21
Rising Debt Means a Weaker US Dollar - 12th Apr 21
Another Gold Stocks Upleg - 12th Apr 21
AMD The ZEN Tech Stock - 12th Apr 21
Overclockers UK Build Quality - Why Glue Fan to CPU Heat sink Instead of Using Supplied Clips? - 12th Apr 21 -
What are the Key Capabilities You Should Look for in Fleet Management Software? - 12th Apr 21
What Is Bitcoin Gold? - 12th Apr 21
UK Covd-19 FREE Lateral Flow Self Testing Kits How Use for the First Time at Home - 10th Apr 21
NVIDIA Stock ARMED and Dangeorus! - 10th Apr 21
The History of Bitcoin Hard Forks - 10th Apr 21
Gold Mining Stocks: A House Built on Shaky Ground - 9th Apr 21
Stock Market On the Verge of a Pullback - 9th Apr 21
What Is Bitcoin Unlimited? - 9th Apr 21
Most Money Managers Gamble With Your Money - 9th Apr 21
Top 5 Evolving Trends For Mobile Casinos - 9th Apr 21
Top 5 AI Tech Stocks Investing 2021 Analysis - 8th Apr 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021 - Crash or Continuing Bull Run? - 8th Apr 21
Don’t Be Fooled by the Stock Market Rally - 8th Apr 21
Gold and Latin: Twin Pillars of Western Rejuvenation - 8th Apr 21
Stronger US Dollar Reacts To Global Market Concerns – Which ETFs Will Benefit? Part II - 8th Apr 21
You're invited: Spot the Next BIG Move in Oil, Gas, Energy ETFs - 8th Apr 21
Ladies and Gentlemen, Mr US Dollar is Back - 8th Apr 21
Stock Market New S&P 500 Highs or Metals Rising? - 8th Apr 21
Microsoft AI Azure Cloud Computing Driving Tech Giant Profits - 7th Apr 21
Amazon Tech Stock PRIMEDAY SALE- 7th Apr 21
The US has Metals Problem - Lithium, Graphite, Copper, Nickel Supplies - 7th Apr 21
Yes, the Fed Will Cover Biden’s $4 Trillion Deficit - 7th Apr 21
S&P 500 Fireworks and Gold Going Stronger - 7th Apr 21
Stock Market Perceived Vs. Actual Risks: The Key To Success - 7th Apr 21
Investing in Google Deep Mind AI 2021 (Alphabet) - 6th Apr 21
Which ETFs Will Benefit As A Stronger US Dollar Reacts To Global Market Concerns - 6th Apr 21
Staying Out of the Red: Financial Tips for Kent Homeowners - 6th Apr 21
Stock Market Pushing Higher - 6th Apr 21
Inflation Fears Rise on Biden’s $3.9 TRILLION in Deficit Spending - 6th Apr 21
Editing and Rendering Videos Whilst Background Crypto Mining Bitcoins with NiceHash, Davinci Resolve - 5th Apr 21
Why the Financial Gurus Are WRONG About Gold - 5th Apr 21
Will Biden’s Infrastructure Plan Rebuild Gold? - 5th Apr 21
Stocks All Time Highs and Gold Double Bottom - 5th Apr 21
All Tech Stocks Revolve Around This Disruptor - 5th Apr 21
Silver $100 Price Ahead - 4th Apr 21
Is Astra Zeneca Vaccine Safe? Risk of Blood Clots and What Side Effects During 8 Days After Jab - 4th Apr 21
Are Premium Bonds A Good Investment in 2021 vs Savings, AI Stocks and Housing Alternatives - 4th Apr 21
Penny Stocks Hit $2 Trillion - The Real Story Behind This "Road to Riches" Scheme - 4th Apr 21
Should Stock Markets Fear Inflation or Deflation? - 4th Apr 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021 - 3rd Apr 21
Gold Price Just Can’t Seem to Breakout - 3rd Apr 21
Stocks, Gold and the Troubling Yields - 3rd Apr 21
What can you buy with cryptocurrencies?- 3rd Apr 21
What a Long and Not so Strange Trip it’s Been for the Gold Mining Stocks - 2nd Apr 21
WD My Book DUO 28tb Unboxing - What Drives Inside the Enclosure, Reds or Blues Review - 2nd Apr 21
Markets, Mayhem and Elliott Waves - 2nd Apr 21
Gold And US Dollar Hegemony - 2nd Apr 21
What Biden’s Big Infrastructure Push Means for Silver Price - 2nd Apr 21
Stock Market Support Near $14,358 On Transportation Index Suggests Rally Will Continue - 2nd Apr 21
Crypto Mine Bitcoin With Your Gaming PC - How Much Profit after 3 Weeks with NiceHash, RTX 3080 GPU - 2nd Apr 21
UK Lockdowns Ending As Europe Continues to Die, Sweet Child O' Mine 2021 Post Pandemic Hope - 2nd Apr 21
A Climbing USDX Means Gold Investors Should Care - 1st Apr 21
How To Spot Market Boom and Bust Cycles - 1st Apr 21
What Could Slay the Stock & Gold Bulls - 1st Apr 21
Precious Metals Mining Stocks Setting Up For A Breakout Rally – Wait For Confirmation - 1st Apr 21
Fed: “We’re Not Going to Take This Punchbowl Away” - 1st Apr 21
Mining Bitcoin On My Desktop PC For 3 Weeks - How Much Crypto Profit Using RTX 3080 on NiceHash - 31st Mar 21
INFLATION - Wage Slaves vs Gold Owners - 31st Mar 21
Why It‘s Reasonable to Be Bullish Stocks and Gold - 31st Mar 21
How To Be Eligible For An E-Transfer Payday Loan? - 31st Mar 21
eXcentral Review – Trade CFDs with a Customer-Centric Broker - 31st Mar 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Gold Bull Market is Back in Play

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010 Apr 09, 2010 - 06:10 AM GMT

By: Seven_Days_Ahead


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Macro Trader’s view:

Our views on Gold have been well aired over the months, if not years. We are long-term bulls. But the market has suffered several steep and often protracted corrections that have on occasion endured for months.

We judge the market is currently in such a phase, but shows signs that it is now coming to an end. Naturally we expect price action to resolve into a fresh leg of the long Bull Run. But what have been the dynamics behind the market over recent months and why now is it beginning to retest the upside?

The relationship between the Dollar and Gold has been well-established throughout the current financial crisis/recession. A weak Dollar translated into strong Gold. The Dollar was weak due to a steep economic downturn which led the US monetary authorities and Administration to pump in unprecedented amounts of stimulus, which led China and others to criticize, as they feared a debasement of their own massive foreign currency reserves, primarily Dollar-denominated. So far, so good.

But the Dollar began a strong recovery late last year as several key data releases, principally December 2009 Non-Farm Payroll, came in much stronger than expected. This coincided with the Dubai debt crisis, which led to a sharp rise in risk aversion, benefitting the Dollar as traders heavily bought into safe haven trades.

The Dubai crisis morphed into the Greek debt crisis, more safe-haven buying, all of which worked against Gold.

Now the Dubai crisis is off the radar and the Greek drama, while still rumbling on, now has a safety net, albeit of untested efficacy. As a result traders have largely turned their attention to economic fundamentals, which have improved throughout this year.

Indeed the US economy looks to be slipping into a familiar recovery pattern as both ISM surveys continue to strengthen and non-farm payroll last week reported a healthy 162,000 new jobs.

Why then should this benefit Gold? Surely, stronger US data will benefit the Dollar? Yes to a degree, and the last few days have seen the Dollar bounce on lingering Greek debt fears. |But Gold too has been a major beneficiary. As the US recovery deepens and risk aversion subsides, the Dollar loses its safe haven protection and becomes victim to the Feds low interest rate policy which Bernanke has reiterated will remain in place for an extended period, (several months). But, more important for the Dollar, is the US fiscal stance. The budget deficit under Obama has exploded and so too the debt to GDP ratio and recent health reforms compound the problem.

The Obama administration offers no credible plan to shrink the deficit, so while strong growth supports the Dollar, heightened concern about US public finances undermine it thus the Gold play can reassert itself.

If the US recovery runs true to past form, the current fiscal stance together with current monetary policy could easily resolve in higher inflation. Other countries run similar policy mixes, so the only asset class truly independent from national economic policies is Gold. It is the original form of money and store of wealth.

The Fed’s stance is understandable: they don’t want to act too soon, but will when they are convinced of a self-sustaining recovery. The Obama administration’s stance isn’t understandable. Short-term fiscal stimulus was not only good but very necessary, but as the economy recovers, the Government needs to wind down its spending and repair its finances. Their inability to address traders’ fears on this matter is why we see Gold as a long-term bull market.


The Technical Trader’s view:




The power and potential of the continuation chart from mid 2008 resides in the completed Head and Shoulders continuation pattern set to drive the market up to1350 as a minimum.


Note too, the completed bull falling wedge…


But the force of the weekly chart becomes all the more clear when taken in conjunction with this additional Head and Shoulders pattern in the day chart.

The pattern completed yesterday.

A confirmed close above the neckline at 1134 today would sustain the bulls’ hopes.

The minimum measured move implied by the pattern? As far as 1245.

The bulls are in charge short, medium and long term.

Mark Sturdy
John Lewis

Seven Days Ahead
Be sure to sign up for and receive these articles automatically at Market Updates

Mark Sturdy, John Lewis & Philip Allwright, write exclusively for Seven Days Ahead a regulated financial advisor selling professional-level technical and macro analysis and high-performing trade recommendations with detailed risk control for banks, hedge funds, and expert private investors around the world. Check out our subscriptions.

© 2010 Copyright Seven Days Ahead - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Seven Days Ahead Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules