Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
UK Covd-19 FREE Lateral Flow Self Testing Kits How Use for the First Time at Home - 10th Apr 21
NVIDIA Stock ARMED and Dangeorus! - 10th Apr 21
The History of Bitcoin Hard Forks - 10th Apr 21
Gold Mining Stocks: A House Built on Shaky Ground - 9th Apr 21
Stock Market On the Verge of a Pullback - 9th Apr 21
What Is Bitcoin Unlimited? - 9th Apr 21
Most Money Managers Gamble With Your Money - 9th Apr 21
Top 5 Evolving Trends For Mobile Casinos - 9th Apr 21
Top 5 AI Tech Stocks Investing 2021 Analysis - 8th Apr 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021 - Crash or Continuing Bull Run? - 8th Apr 21
Don’t Be Fooled by the Stock Market Rally - 8th Apr 21
Gold and Latin: Twin Pillars of Western Rejuvenation - 8th Apr 21
Stronger US Dollar Reacts To Global Market Concerns – Which ETFs Will Benefit? Part II - 8th Apr 21
You're invited: Spot the Next BIG Move in Oil, Gas, Energy ETFs - 8th Apr 21
Ladies and Gentlemen, Mr US Dollar is Back - 8th Apr 21
Stock Market New S&P 500 Highs or Metals Rising? - 8th Apr 21
Microsoft AI Azure Cloud Computing Driving Tech Giant Profits - 7th Apr 21
Amazon Tech Stock PRIMEDAY SALE- 7th Apr 21
The US has Metals Problem - Lithium, Graphite, Copper, Nickel Supplies - 7th Apr 21
Yes, the Fed Will Cover Biden’s $4 Trillion Deficit - 7th Apr 21
S&P 500 Fireworks and Gold Going Stronger - 7th Apr 21
Stock Market Perceived Vs. Actual Risks: The Key To Success - 7th Apr 21
Investing in Google Deep Mind AI 2021 (Alphabet) - 6th Apr 21
Which ETFs Will Benefit As A Stronger US Dollar Reacts To Global Market Concerns - 6th Apr 21
Staying Out of the Red: Financial Tips for Kent Homeowners - 6th Apr 21
Stock Market Pushing Higher - 6th Apr 21
Inflation Fears Rise on Biden’s $3.9 TRILLION in Deficit Spending - 6th Apr 21
Editing and Rendering Videos Whilst Background Crypto Mining Bitcoins with NiceHash, Davinci Resolve - 5th Apr 21
Why the Financial Gurus Are WRONG About Gold - 5th Apr 21
Will Biden’s Infrastructure Plan Rebuild Gold? - 5th Apr 21
Stocks All Time Highs and Gold Double Bottom - 5th Apr 21
All Tech Stocks Revolve Around This Disruptor - 5th Apr 21
Silver $100 Price Ahead - 4th Apr 21
Is Astra Zeneca Vaccine Safe? Risk of Blood Clots and What Side Effects During 8 Days After Jab - 4th Apr 21
Are Premium Bonds A Good Investment in 2021 vs Savings, AI Stocks and Housing Alternatives - 4th Apr 21
Penny Stocks Hit $2 Trillion - The Real Story Behind This "Road to Riches" Scheme - 4th Apr 21
Should Stock Markets Fear Inflation or Deflation? - 4th Apr 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021 - 3rd Apr 21
Gold Price Just Can’t Seem to Breakout - 3rd Apr 21
Stocks, Gold and the Troubling Yields - 3rd Apr 21
What can you buy with cryptocurrencies?- 3rd Apr 21
What a Long and Not so Strange Trip it’s Been for the Gold Mining Stocks - 2nd Apr 21
WD My Book DUO 28tb Unboxing - What Drives Inside the Enclosure, Reds or Blues Review - 2nd Apr 21
Markets, Mayhem and Elliott Waves - 2nd Apr 21
Gold And US Dollar Hegemony - 2nd Apr 21
What Biden’s Big Infrastructure Push Means for Silver Price - 2nd Apr 21
Stock Market Support Near $14,358 On Transportation Index Suggests Rally Will Continue - 2nd Apr 21
Crypto Mine Bitcoin With Your Gaming PC - How Much Profit after 3 Weeks with NiceHash, RTX 3080 GPU - 2nd Apr 21
UK Lockdowns Ending As Europe Continues to Die, Sweet Child O' Mine 2021 Post Pandemic Hope - 2nd Apr 21
A Climbing USDX Means Gold Investors Should Care - 1st Apr 21
How To Spot Market Boom and Bust Cycles - 1st Apr 21
What Could Slay the Stock & Gold Bulls - 1st Apr 21
Precious Metals Mining Stocks Setting Up For A Breakout Rally – Wait For Confirmation - 1st Apr 21
Fed: “We’re Not Going to Take This Punchbowl Away” - 1st Apr 21
Mining Bitcoin On My Desktop PC For 3 Weeks - How Much Crypto Profit Using RTX 3080 on NiceHash - 31st Mar 21
INFLATION - Wage Slaves vs Gold Owners - 31st Mar 21
Why It‘s Reasonable to Be Bullish Stocks and Gold - 31st Mar 21
How To Be Eligible For An E-Transfer Payday Loan? - 31st Mar 21
eXcentral Review – Trade CFDs with a Customer-Centric Broker - 31st Mar 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Looking Back to The Stock Market Crash of 1987

Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets Jul 28, 2007 - 12:36 AM GMT

By: Peter_Degraaf


“History does not always repeat, but sometimes it rhymes.” Mark Twain.

A lot of traders and investors are asking the question: “Is it too early to buy, or should I expect more volatility like we saw during the past few days?”

Sometimes, by looking at the past, we can find some clues as to what might happen during similar situations in the present.

The first chart is that of the S&P index performance during the past 12 months.

Charts compliments of

Featured is the S&P daily bar chart. Last week I warned my subscribers (see red arrow), that the S&P and DOW were due for a nasty setback, as the three supporting indicators were flashing warning signs (red dashed lines). The green arrows point to the spots where I now expect this correction to find near-term support.

Let's take a look next to see what we can learn from a similar situation 20 years ago.

Featured is a chart that compares the 1987 S&P to the 1987 - 30 year bond price ($SPX:$USB), while the 1987 S&P index itself is in the lower box.

A good time to buy the DOW is when this ‘combination index' is near the 200DMA. A good time to sell is when this chart shows a wide divergence from the 200DMA. The red arrow was a warning sign to the stock market “look out below”. The next chart takes a closer look.

Featured is a close-up of the previous chart. In 1987 those who watched this ‘index combination' ($SPX:$USB) on a daily basis would have seen on Oct 15 and Oct 16 that it was time to bail out (red arrows), thereby avoiding most of the carnage.

Let's apply this lesson to today's chart formation.

Featured is the 2007 - 3 months chart of the ‘comparison index' that compares the S&P index to the 30 year bond price (SPX:USB)

Although I had been warning my subscribers for weeks that the S&P was overbought, on the 23 rd and 24 th I was able to issue my sternest warnings yet, (red arrows).

Conclusion: You don't need me, all you need to do is start using this chart pattern as part of your system. BUY GENERIC STOCKS (DOW, S&P etc.) WHEN THIS COMBINATION INDEX IS NEAR THE 200 DMA, AND SELL WHEN IT GETS TOO FAR ABOVE IT!

Let's take a look at how gold fared in 1987.

Featured is the chart that compares the 1987 S&P index (bottom) to the 1987 gold price at top). Gold initially rose in price, then dropped. Six weeks later gold was higher (blue dashed line, while the S&P (bottom chart), was still on the floor (red dashed line).

Featured is the current gold price chart. While we don't know what the future holds, we can determine where the support for gold is at present. Support is indicated at $650., (green arrow), the 50DMA and 200DMA are in positive alignment, and both are rising. That is bullish.

The RSI and MACD indicators both have room to move up, along with the gold price.

Some of the damage to the bullish case for gold has been caused by central bank selling during the past few weeks . The positive aspect is that they can only sell it once . In the 1960's these same central banks (the London Gold Pool), sold tonnes of gold, trying to stop gold from rising above $100./oz. They finally gave up.

Some traders are being spooked by the 'bounce up' in the US dollar index. The dollar was overdue, especially so close to it's multi-year support level at 80.00

We should consider ourselves blessed to still be able to buy gold at $650+/oz. Think of those investors in Zimbabwe who have to shell out 3 million Zimbabwean dollars just to buy a gram of gold! Better buy your gold now, for the higher the price goes, the more difficult it will be to obtain the increasing amount of cash that will be required, and the more restrictions the buyer will face. Every year the US Federal government publishes 76,000 pages of new regulations. Some of these regulations will no doubt relate to gold.

We finish this essay with the current XAU, two year, mining stocks chart.

Most breakouts are tested right after the breakout. This one rose from 130 to 160, and has since given back 50%. It is currently just above the support of the 50DMA and 200DMA. These two moving averages are in positive alignment, and both are rising.

We should soon be able to spot signs that the bottom is in, and the next rise can then take place.

By Peter Degraaf.

Peter Degraaf is an on-line stock trader, with 50 years of investing experience. He issues a weekly Email alert. For a 60 day free trial, send him an Email at ITISWELL@COGECO.CA , or visit his website: WWW.PDEGRAAF.COM

DISCLAIMER: Please do your own due diligence. I am NOT responsible for your trading decisions.

Peter Degraaf Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules