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Outlook for Commodity trading 2010

Commodities / Commodities Trading Jan 13, 2010 - 05:38 AM GMT

By: Andrew_Abraham

Commodities

Everyone would love to know what would be the outlook for the commodity markets and commodity trading. After a roaring 2007 and 2008 it seemed that commodity trading advisors would know no limit. The stock markets collapsed in 2008 and fear was rampant through out the world. During the turmoil when virtually every strategy lost money the Newedge CTA Index was up 13.07%. However in 2009 we encountered one of the biggest run up in the history of Wall Street and commodity traders did not find oppurtunities to profit. Many question was this a dead cat bounce or have things really changed and improved?


For commodity trading advisors and trend followers the commodities markets were choppy, whipsawing and full of false starts. In this tough & difficult environment, the Newedge CTA Index was down -4.25%, its first negative year since its inception in 2000. Many inexperienced investors have fled the managed futures markets with the first scent of a draw down.

These investors forget the central banks have flooded the world with liquidity and more cheap money. This historically has been a catalyst for inflation. Another wild card could be the effect of China having it’s own version of a housing crisis due to massive over building. Regardless…trend followers do not predict..they only react…The proven fact though in times of crisis..trend following a basket of commodities, currencies, interest rates, metals and energies has been a profitable trade.

What I personally see is resumption of wall street preaching to the public to be a long term investor, buy stocks..they are a safe investment. This could not be further from the truth… For a 10 year period..most investors in the stock market were lucky just to break even. Now you look at all the risks, they seem to be magnified. There have been weak earning from Alcoa to Chevron. There is still is massive unemployment, interest rates can go any lower and possibly will be heading higher to outset some of the tremendous debt created by the Fed, as well as many of the technical and consensus indicators which have become negative.

Have a plan…be aware of the inherent risks that are becoming more luminous.

Andrew Abraham
www.myinvestorsplace.com

Andrew Abraham has been in the financial arena since 1990. He is a commodity trading advisor and co manager of a Commodity Pool. Since 1993 Andrew has been a proponent of quantitative mechanical trading programs. Andrew's major concern is not only total return on investment but rather the amount of risk that one would have to tolerate in order to achieve returns He focuses on developing quant models that encompass strict risk adherence and correlation. He has been a speaker at conferences as well as an author of numerous articles. Andrew has spent years researching ideas that have the potential to outperform indices as well as maintain fewer draw downs.

Visit Angus Jackson Partners (http://www.angusjacksonpartners.com) Contact: A.Abraham@AngusJackson.com (mailto:A.Abraham@AngusJackson.com)

© 2010 Copyright Andrew Abraham - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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