Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Inflation Consequences for the Stock Market, FED Balance Sheet - 24th Oct 21
To Be or Not to Be: How the Evergrande Crisis Can Affect Gold Price - 24th Oct 21
During a Market Mania, "no prudent professional is perceived to add value" - 24th Oct 21
Stock Market S&P500 Rallies Above $4400 – May Attempt To Advance To $4750~$4800 - 24th Oct 21
Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets - 23rd Oct 21
Easy PC Upgrades with Motherboard Combos - Overclockers UK Unboxing - MB, Memory and Ryzen 5600x CPU - 23rd Oct 21
Gold Mining Stocks Q3 2021 - 23rd Oct 21
Gold calmly continues cobbling its Handle, Miners lay in wait - 23rd Oct 21
US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008 - 22nd Oct 21
Extreme Ratios Point to Gold and Silver Price Readjustments - 22nd Oct 21
Bitcoin $100K or Ethereum $10K—which happens first? - 22nd Oct 21
This Isn’t Sci-Fi: How AI Is About To Disrupt This $11 Trillion Industry - 22nd Oct 21
Ravencoin RVN About to EXPLODE to NEW HIGHS! Last Chance to Buy Before it goes to the MOON! - 21st Oct 21
Stock Market Animal Spirits Returning - 21st Oct 21
Inflation Advances, and So Does Gold — Except That It Doesn’t - 21st Oct 21
Why A.I. Is About To Trigger The Next Great Medical Breakthrough - 21st Oct 21
Gold Price Slowly Going Nowhere - 20th Oct 21
Shocking Numbers Show Government Crowding Out Real Economy - 20th Oct 21
Crude Oil Is in the Fast Lane, But Where Is It Going? - 20th Oct 21
3 Tech Stocks That Could Change The World - 20th Oct 21
Best AI Tech Stocks ETF and Investment Trusts - 19th Oct 21
Gold Mining Stocks: Will Investors Dump the Laggards? - 19th Oct 21
The Most Exciting Medical Breakthrough Of The Decade? - 19th Oct 21
Prices Rising as New Dangers Point to Hard Assets - 19th Oct 21
It’s not just Copper; GYX indicated cyclical the whole time - 19th Oct 21
Chinese Tech Stocks CCP Paranoia, VIES - Variable Interest Entities - 19th Oct 21
Inflation Peaked Again, Right? - 19th Oct 21
Gold Stocks Bouncing Hard - 19th Oct 21
Stock Market New Intermediate Bottom Forming? - 19th Oct 21
Beware, Gold Bulls — That’s the Beginning of the End - 18th Oct 21
Gold Price Flag Suggests A Big Rally May Start Soon - 18th Oct 21
Inflation Or Deflation – End Result Is Still Depression - 18th Oct 21
A.I. Breakthrough Could Disrupt the $11 Trillion Medical Sector - 18th Oct 21
US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending - 17th Oct 21
The Gold Price And Inflation - 17th Oct 21
Went Long the Crude Oil? Beware of the Headwinds Ahead… - 17th Oct 21
Watch These Next-gen Cloud Computing Stocks - 17th Oct 21
Overclockers UK Custom Built PC 1 YEAR Use Review Verdict - Does it Still Work? - 16th Oct 21
Altonville Mine Tours Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 16th Oct 21
How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
The Only way to Crush Inflation (not stocks) - 14th Oct 21
Why "Losses Are the Norm" in the Stock Market - 14th Oct 21
Sub Species Castle Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 14th Oct 21
Which Wallet is Best for Storing NFTs? - 14th Oct 21
Ailing UK Pound Has Global Effects - 14th Oct 21
How to Get 6 Years Life Out of Your Overclocked PC System, Optimum GPU, CPU and MB Performance - 13th Oct 21
The Demand Shock of 2022 - 12th Oct 21
4 Reasons Why NFTs Could Be The Future - 12th Oct 21
Crimex Silver: Murder Most Foul - 12th Oct 21
Bitcoin Rockets In Preparation For Liftoff To $100,000 - 12th Oct 21
INTEL Tech Stock to the MOON! INTC 2000 vs 2021 Market Bubble WARNING - 11th Oct 21
AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Wall of Worry Meets NFPs - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Intermediate Correction Continues - 11th Oct 21
China / US Stock Markets Divergence - 10th Oct 21
Can US Save Taiwan From China? Taiwan Strait Naval Battle - PLA vs 7th Fleet War Game Simulation - 10th Oct 21
Gold Price Outlook: The Inflation Chasm Between Europe and the US - 10th Oct 21
US Real Estate ETFs React To Rising Housing Market Mortgage Interest Rates - 10th Oct 21
US China War over Taiwan Simulation 2021, Invasion Forecast - Who Will Win? - 9th Oct 21
When Will the Fed Taper? - 9th Oct 21
Dancing with Ghouls and Ghosts at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 9th Oct 21
Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
Scan Computers - Custom Build PC 6 Months Later, Reliability, Issues, Quality of Tech Support Review - 8th Oct 21
Gold and Silver: Your Financial Main Battle Tanks - 8th Oct 21
How to handle the “Twin Crises” Evergrande and Debt Ceiling Threatening Stocks - 8th Oct 21
Why a Peak in US Home Prices May Be Approaching - 8th Oct 21
Alton Towers Scarefest is BACK! Post Pandemic Frights Begin, What it's Like to Enter Scarefest 2021 - 8th Oct 21
AJ Bell vs II Interactive Investor - Which Platform is Best for Buying US FAANG Stocks UK Investing - 7th Oct 21
Gold: Evergrande Investors' Savior - 7th Oct 21
Here's What Really Sets Interest Rates (Not Central Banks) - 7th Oct 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Jobless Data Shock and Stocks Diamond Formation Signals Imminent Market Plunge

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010 Jan 10, 2010 - 05:56 AM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe U.S. unexpectedly lost 85,000 jobs in December and revisions showed payrolls increased the prior month for the first time in almost two years, indicating improvement in the labor market will be halting.   Payrolls decreased last month after a November gain of 4,000, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected no change in December employment. The jobless rate held at 10 percent.  


Not mentioned in the article is that October payrolls were revised down from -111,000 to -127,000.  The CES Birth/Death Model added 64,000 hypothetical jobs to the ranks of the employed.  If the “discouraged workers” were kept in the labor force statistics, the unemployment rate would be 12%.

There’s a new debt ceiling, but does it matter?

On December 28, 2009 President Obama signed into existence the bill that allows the debt ceiling to be raised to $12.394 trillion.  The bills were passed along party lines in both the House and Senate.  But most debt clocks shattered that limit long before, since there is “debt subject to limit” and off-budget debt that doesn’t see the light of day.  Our lawmakers, however, will run out of wiggle room by March 1, 2010.  This may be the last time they can “kick the can down the road.”

 

 

 

Diamonds are not the market’s friend.
-- A unique diamond formation is now apparent in the S&P 500 Index.  If this formation is appropriate, stocks are due for a fall in the very near future.   The Diamond Formation is a result of a Broadening Top formation combined with a Wedge Formation.  While the Wedge is fairly common, the Broadening Top is not.  It is usually seen at important market highs.

 

 

 

Treasury bonds start the year off badly.
-- Treasuries fell, heading for a weekly loss, before a U.S. report that economists said will show a 23- month run of job losses ended in December.
I am quoting an article from the previous day since the employment situation was worse than expected.  A decline in employment may have the effect of reducing bond yields and driving up the price.

 

 

 

Gold bounces at its trendline.
-- Gold prices fell as the dollar pared a decline, eroding the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment. The greenback was down 0.2 percent against a basket of six major currencies after dropping as much as 0.7 percent following a report that showed the U.S. unexpectedly lost jobs last month. Gold rose 24 percent last year as the dollar fell 4.2 percent.

 

 

 

The Nikkei had a Santa Rally.

-- Japanese stocks rose on speculation overseas earnings will climb, as the yen weakened to its lowest level against the dollar since August following comments by Finance Minister Naoto Kan.   The weaker yen has the potential effect of boosting exports, which may boost manufacturing stocks.

 

 

 

The Shanghai index slumps.
-- Chinese stocks have lost 2.5 percent in the first week of trading this year on concern government steps to curb lending growth and property speculation will slow expansion in the world’s third-largest economy. The central bank offered three- month bills at a higher rate and said it will seek “moderate” loan growth to support the economy while managing inflation expectations.

 

 

 

The dollar pulls back from a strong advance.

The dollar fell from a four-month high against the yen as U.S. employers unexpectedly eliminated jobs last month, boosting speculation that the Federal Reserve may extend stimulus measures.

 The headline doesn’t sit well with the dollar,” said Brian Kim, a currency strategist at UBS AG in Stamford, Connecticut. “People had been bracing for a flat to positive number. It puts expectations for a Fed rate hike on ice.”

 

 

The market remains irrational on commercial property.
 -- The U.S. apartment vacancy rate rose to an almost 30-year high of 8 percent in the fourth quarter, and rents dropped in the biggest one-year slump in 2009, according to real estate research company Reis Inc.
In the fourth quarter, the U.S. apartment vacancy rate rose 0.10 percentage points from the prior quarter and 1.3 percentage points for the year. At 8 percent, it was the highest national vacancy rate Reis has recorded in its 30 years of tracking the sector.

 


Gasoline prices almost $1.00 higher than a year ago.

The Energy Information Agency weekly report suggests, “The U.S. average price for regular gasoline increased six cents to $2.67 per gallon, $0.98 higher than the price a year ago. Prices rose in all regions of the country. On the East Coast, the average went up a nickel to $2.65 per gallon. The largest increase occurred in the Midwest where the price jumped eight cents to $2.64 per gallon.”

 

 

 

 

Frigid weather affects NatGas prices.
The Energy Information Agency’s Natural Gas Weekly Update reports, “Frigid temperatures throughout most of the lower 48 States and rising crude oil prices appear to have contributed to rising natural gas prices. Price increases since last Wednesday ranged between $0.06 and $7.89 per MMBtu. In general, prices increased by less than $1 per MMBtu at most market locations on the week. However, significant price run-ups in select regions of the lower 48 States characterized the week.”

 

Is Uncle Ben really that dense?

If there is one man in the nation's capitol who maybe isn't too unhappy about Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner being in the news today, it's probably Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke who delivered a speech titled Monetary Policy and the Housing Bubble over the weekend, a topic that continues to generate a lot of discussion at mid-week, little of it positive.

I will not repeat what others have already written about a speech that, one day, will probably rival (if not exceed) in ignominy the Fed chairman's "helicopter speech" from a decade ago.  This link will recap the weakness of his arguments.

Is The Government Misrepresenting Unemployment By 32%?
(The) government spent a record $14.7 billion on Unemployment Insurance Benefits as of December 30, a 24% jump sequentially from the $11.8 billion in November. Yet the DOL has disclosed a mere 1.7% increase in those to whom insurance benefits are paid: from 9.4 million to just under 9.6 million. To put the $14.7 billion number in perspective, in December the Federal Government paid a total of $14 billion ($700 million less) in Federal Salaries!

And some more perspective: in calendar 2009 the government has paid $140 billion in Unemployment Insurance Benefits. This is yet another economic stimulus that nobody in the administration discusses, yet which undoubtedly has the biggest impact on the economy, as all those millions unemployed can moderate their pain courtesy of a passable weekly check from the government which should just about cover the rent and beer.

Traders alert:  The Practical Investor is currently offering the daily Inner Circle Newsletter to new subscribers.  Contact us at tpi@thepracticalinvestor.com for a free sample newsletter and subscription information.

Our Investment Advisor Registration is on the Web

We are in the process of updating our website at www.thepracticalinvestor.com to have more information on our services. Log on and click on Advisor Registration to get more details.

If you are a client or wish to become one, please make an appointment to discuss our investment strategies by calling Connie or Tony at (517) 699-1554, ext 10 or 11. Or e-mail us at tpi@thepracticalinvestor.com .

Anthony M. Cherniawski,
President and CIO
http://www.thepracticalinvestor.com

As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

Anthony M. Cherniawski Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in