Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Coronavirus: UK Parents Demand ALL Schools OPEN September, 7 Million Children Abandoned by Teachers - 9th Aug 20
Computer GPU Fans Not Spinning Quick FIX - Sticky Fans Solution - 9th Aug 20
Find the Best Speech Converter for You - 9th Aug 20
Silver Bull Market Update - 7th Aug 20
This Inflation-Adjusted Silver Chart Tells An Interesting Story - 7th Aug 20
The Great American Housing Boom Has Begun - 7th Aug 20
Know About Lotteries With The Best Odds Of Winning - 7th Aug 20
Could Gold Price Reach $7,000 by 2030? - 6th Aug 20
Bananas for All! Keep Dancing… FOMC - 6th Aug 20
How to Do Bets During This Time - 6th Aug 20
How to develop your stock trading strategy - 6th Aug 20
Stock Investors What to do if Trump Bans TikTok - 5th Aug 20
Gold Trifecta of Key Signals for Gold Mining Stocks - 5th Aug 20
Stock Market Uptrend Continues? - 4th Aug 20
The Dimensions of Covid-19: The Hong Kong Flu Redux - 4th Aug 20
High Yield Junk Bonds Are Hot Again -- Despite Warning Signs - 4th Aug 20
Gold Stocks Autumn Rally - 4th Aug 20
“Government Sachs” Is Worried About the Federal Reserve Note - 4th Aug 20
Gold Miners Still Pushing That Cart of Rocks Up Hill - 4th Aug 20
UK Government to Cancel Christmas - Crazy Covid Eid 2020! - 4th Aug 20
Covid-19 Exposes NHS Institutional Racism Against Black and Asian Staff and Patients - 4th Aug 20
How Sony Is Fueling the Computer Vision Boom - 3rd Aug 20
Computer Gaming System Rig Top Tips For 6 Years Future Proofing Build Spec - 3rd Aug 20
Cornwwall Bude Caravan Park Holidays 2020 - Look Inside Holiday Resort Caravan - 3rd Aug 20
UK Caravan Park Holidays 2020 Review - Hoseasons Cayton Bay North East England - 3rd Aug 20
Best Travel Bags for 2020 Summer Holidays , Back Sling packs, water proof, money belt and tactical - 3rd Aug 20
Precious Metals Warn Of Increased Volatility Ahead - 2nd Aug 20
The Key USDX Sign for Gold and Silver - 2nd Aug 20
Corona Crisis Will Have Lasting Impact on Gold Market - 2nd Aug 20
Gold & Silver: Two Pictures - 1st Aug 20
The Bullish Case for Stocks Isn't Over Yet - 1st Aug 20
Is Gold Price Action Warning Of Imminent Monetary Collapse - Part 2? - 1st Aug 20
Will America Accept the World's Worst Pandemic Response Government - 1st Aug 20
Stock Market Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More – Part II - 1st Aug 20
Trump White House Accelerating Toward a US Dollar Crisis - 31st Jul 20
Why US Commercial Real Estate is Set to Get Slammed - 31st Jul 20
Gold Price Blows Through Upside Resistance - The Chase Is On - 31st Jul 20
Is Crude Oil Price Setting Up for a Waterfall Decline? - 31st Jul 20
Stock Market Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More - 30th Jul 20
Why Big Money Is Already Pouring Into Edge Computing Tech Stocks - 30th Jul 20
Economic and Geopolitical Worries Fuel Gold’s Rally - 30th Jul 20
How to Finance an Investment Property - 30th Jul 20
I Hate Banks - Including Goldman Sachs - 29th Jul 20
NASDAQ Stock Market Double Top & Price Channels Suggest Pending Price Correction - 29th Jul 20
Silver Price Surge Leaves Naysayers in the Dust - 29th Jul 20
UK Supermarket Covid-19 Shop - Few Masks, Lack of Social Distancing (Tesco) - 29th Jul 20
Budgie Clipped Wings, How Long Before it Can Fly Again? - 29th Jul 20
How To Take Advantage Of Tesla's 400% Stock Surge - 29th Jul 20
Gold Makes Record High and Targets $6,000 in New Bull Cycle - 28th Jul 20
Gold Strong Signal For A Secular Bull Market - 28th Jul 20
Anatomy of a Gold and Silver Precious Metals Bull Market - 28th Jul 20
Shopify Is Seizing an $80 Billion Pot of Gold - 28th Jul 20
Stock Market Minor Correction Underway - 28th Jul 20
Why College Is Never Coming Back - 27th Jul 20
Stocks Disconnect from Economy, Gold Responds - 27th Jul 20
Silver Begins Big Upside Rally Attempt - 27th Jul 20
The Gold and Silver Markets Have Changed… What About You? - 27th Jul 20
Google, Apple And Amazon Are Leading A $30 Trillion Assault On Wall Street - 27th Jul 20
This Stock Market Indicator Reaches "Lowest Level in Nearly 20 Years" - 26th Jul 20
New Wave of Economic Stimulus Lifts Gold Price - 26th Jul 20
Stock Market Slow Grind Higher Above the Early June Stock Highs - 26th Jul 20
How High Will Silver Go? - 25th Jul 20
If You Own Gold, Look Out Below - 25th Jul 20
Crude Oil and Energy Sets Up Near Major Resistance – Breakdown Pending - 25th Jul 20
FREE Access to Premium Market Forecasts by Elliott Wave International - 25th Jul 20
The Promise of Silver as August Approaches: Accumulation and Conversation - 25th Jul 20
The Silver Bull Gateway is at Hand - 24th Jul 20
The Prospects of S&P 500 Above the Early June Highs - 24th Jul 20
How Silver Could Surpass Its All-Time High - 24th Jul 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

Stock Market Driving Us All Nuts...

Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading Nov 17, 2009 - 01:38 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets You don't want to short a market in a confirmed up trend. At least not very often. I mean, why go against the trend in place. For the most part, this will just bring about bad results. On the other hand, as we trade closer to the top of the range, the market doesn't seem to want to explode up and out either. You do have to hand it to the bulls overall though. Even though they can't seem to break away from S&P 500 1100, they are keeping the pressure on the bears seemingly day after day. Like a boxer who doesn't have the power to knock out his opponent but who wins the fight by jabbing his opponent in to submission.

Pullbacks are shorter and shorter in duration as time moves on. Higher highs. Higher lows. Yet somehow we keep finding ourselves very close to S&P 500 1100. With today's overall upside action, we find the market at a juncture of no return. It's time blast or time for a larger pullback. Although we can sell off at any time to unwind things, the bears need to get moving now or they will find themselves covering more short positions all over again. So here we are. Close to, yet another breakout, and with the market telling me not to short, even though there seems to be reasons to do so, being so close to major resistance. Interesting times indeed.

When you look at the market from a purely fundamental perspective, I can admit to all of you that there's very little reason to be involved on the bullish side of things. I mean, come on here. The New York State manufacturing report this morning was nothing short of a total disaster. A massive decline down month over month. The kind of number that could have destroyed this market today if things were behaving normally. Retail sales weren't very good either. While the news did hit the futures some, they held on to most of their gains, and once the market opened, things went higher still. That's the fundamental story.

The market doesn't seem to care what that story is telling. Not for now. Why, you ask? Two reasons. The market is looking out far ahead and seeing a fed that won't raise rates for an extremely long time, even though you're all hearing rumors to the contrary. They will stay near, or at zero, for maybe a year or longer. In addition, the market, looking out ahead, seems to see things we don't at this point. That things will be better than we think. Our job isn't to argue with what we see. Our job is to play what we see, and for now, that message remains to be long or to be cash, but not to be short.

The story seems to be, more than anything else, the total collapse going on almost daily with the dollar (UUP). Breaking major support today and having a very hard time even bouncing from oversold levels. No one seems to want to touch it and when a vehicle is broken such as this, few want to stand in the way of it.

As the dollar collapses, commodity stocks are moving higher. Commodity prices globally are shooting higher. Gold (GLD) is surging. The market is behaving well overall and confounding the "experts" such as Meredith Whitney, who have been short and wrong for quite some time, and come on CNBC daily shouting their case of how the market just isn't getting it right. The market is moving almost perfectly in inverse fashion to the dollar, so until that piece of paper can get a reversal, you have to feel the market is going to continue to frustrate the masses, even the very best of over paid "experts".

Strong longer-term support remains at those 50-day exponential moving averages well below the closing prices tonight across all the major indexes. Until the bears can convincingly close this market below those levels, you have to take every selling opportunity as a buying one. Recently we had closes below on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, but not on the Dow.

Not only that, the S&P 500 closed slightly below, but there was no follow through, thus within a few days the S&P 500 blasted back over once the bears saw they couldn't bring things down further, as a true breakdown would indicate under normal circumstances. Strange times, but that's the way we have to look at things. It's lose the 50-day exponential moving averages on all the major indexes or bust for the bears. I, by no means, am saying that won't or can't happen. It can. I am not trying to chide the bears. I'm not! I am simply reporting what is taking place and what we have to look towards to play appropriately. The message still seems to be that above the 50's things are in good shape.



Jack Steiman is author of ( ). Former columnist for, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

Sign up for a Free 30-Day Trial to!

© 2009

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.

Jack Steiman Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules