Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
UK Election Seats Forecasts - Tories 326, Labour 241, SNP 40, Lib Dems 17 - 12th Dec 19
UK General Election 2019 Final Seats Per Party Forecast - 12th Dec 19
What UK CPI, RPI INFLATION Forecasts for General Election Result 2019 - 11th Dec 19
Gold ETF Holdings Surge… But Do They Actually Hold Gold? - 11th Dec 19
Gold, Silver Reversals, Lower Prices and Our Precious Profits - 11th Dec 19
Opinion Pollsters, YouGov MRP General Election 2019 Result Seats Forecast - 11th Dec 19
UK General Election Tory and Labour Marginal Seats Analysis, Implied Forecast 2019 - 11th Dec 19
UK General Election 2019 - Tory Seats Forecast Based on GDP Growth - 11th Dec 19
YouGov's MRP Poll Final Tory Seats Forecast Revised Down From 359 to 338, Possibly Lower? - 10th Dec 19
What UK Economy (Average Earnings) Predicts for General Election Results 2019 - 10th Dec 19
Labour vs Tory Manifesto's UK General Election Parliamentary Seats Forecast 2019 - 10th Dec 19
Lumber is about to rally and how to play it with this ETF - 10th Dec 19
Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019 - 9th Dec 19
Long-term Potential for Gold Remains Strong! - 9th Dec 19
Stock and Financial Markets Review - 9th Dec 19
Labour / Tory Manifesto's Impact on UK General Election Seats Forecast 2019 - 9th Dec 19
Tory Seats Forecast 2019 General Election Based on UK House Prices Momentum Analysis - 9th Dec 19
Top Tory Marginal Seats at Risk of Loss to Labour and Lib Dems - Election 2019 - 9th Dec 19
UK House Prices Momentum Tory Seats Forecast General Election 2019 - 8th Dec 19
Why Labour is Set to Lose Sheffield Seats at General Election 2019 - 8th Dec 19
Gold and Silver Opportunity Here Is As Good As It Gets - 8th Dec 19
High Yield Bond and Transports Signal Gold Buy Signal - 8th Dec 19
Gold & Silver Stocks Belie CoT Caution - 8th Dec 19
Will Labour Government Spending Bankrupt Britain? UK Debt and Deficits - 7th Dec 19
Lib Dem Fake Tory Election Leaflets - Sheffield Hallam General Election 2019 - 7th Dec 19
You Should Be Buying Gold Stocks Now - 6th Dec 19
The End of Apple Has Begun - 6th Dec 19
How Much Crude Oil Do You Unknowingly Eat? - 6th Dec 19
Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast - 6th Dec 19
Gold Price Forecast – Has the Recovery Finished? - 6th Dec 19
Precious Metals Ratio Charts - 6th Dec 19
Climate Emergency vs Labour Tree Felling Councils Reality - Sheffield General Election 2019 - 6th Dec 19
What Fake UK Unemployment Statistics Predict for General Election Result 2019 - 6th Dec 19
What UK CPI, RPI and REAL INFLATION Predict for General Election Result 2019 - 5th Dec 19
Supply Crunch Coming as Silver Miners Scale Back - 5th Dec 19
Gold Will Not Surpass Its 1980 Peak - 5th Dec 19
UK House Prices Most Accurate Predictor of UK General Elections - 2019 - 5th Dec 19
7 Year Cycles Can Be Powerful And Gold Just Started One - 5th Dec 19
Lib Dems Winning Election Leaflets War Against Labour - Sheffield Hallam 2019 - 5th Dec 19
Do you like to venture out? Test yourself and see what we propose for you - 5th Dec 19
Great Ways To Make Money Over Time - 5th Dec 19
Calculating Your Personal Cost If Stock, Bond and House Prices Return To Average - 4th Dec 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

UK General Election Forecast 2019

The Federal Reserve Has Attempted to Corner the Credit Market

Interest-Rates / Market Manipulation Sep 26, 2009 - 02:45 AM GMT

By: Submissions

Interest-Rates

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDaniel Aaronson and Lee Markowitz write: During a market corner, a buyer accumulates an asset with the intention of driving the price higher without any regard for its true value.  Additionally, the buyer amasses such a large holding that market prices cannot remain elevated without continuous buying.  For example, when the Hunt Brothers cornered the silver market, silver rose from $11 per ounce in September 1979 to nearly $50 an ounce in January 1980.  Eventually, the Hunt Brothers stopped buying silver as they ran out of capital and the market for silver dried up.  As happens with all market corners, when the buyer disappeared from the market, the price of silver spiraled downward.  The Federal Reserve, knowingly or not, has cornered the credit market.


At the beginning of the credit crisis the Federal Reserve lowered short-term interest rates in an attempt to ease financial market strains.  With the credit markets still not functioning properly, despite the Federal Funds rate being set in a range of 0 – 0.25%, the Federal Reserve devised a new plan to lower market interest rates for individuals and corporations.  This plan, otherwise known as quantitative easing, called for the Federal Reserve to print money in order to buy bonds on the open market as well as guarantee investors from losses on other bonds.

Currently, the Federal Reserve is in the process of buying $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities, $200 billion of agency debt, and nearly $300 billion of private credit (this excludes the $300 billion of Treasury purchases and also assumes that all buying programs are completed as stated by the Federal Reserve).  To put this $1.75 trillion buying spree into perspective, PIMCO, the world’s largest bond fund manager, managed $841 billion as of June 30, 2009.  Essentially, the Federal Reserve has not only become a new bond market participant, but also will have grown to twice the size of the largest market participant in approximately one year.  The entrance of such a large indiscriminate buyer helps to explain the rapid resurgence of credit markets.

The end of the Federal Reserve’s credit market corner (assets that are cornered always collapse) could be sparked by a number catalysts.  First, private investors may realize that bond prices are unjustifiably high and will sell them into the market faster than the Federal Reserve can buy them.  Secondly, the Federal Reserve could slow its purchases, leading to lower marginal demand for bonds if not eliminating demand entirely.  A third and more devastating outcome that could result from the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing would be a Dollar collapse. 

Interestingly, on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced that it would slow its involvement in credit markets.  Previously, the Federal Reserve was going to complete its $1.75 trillion program by December 2009, but now it has extended the program until March 2010.  In doing so, the Federal Reserve has lowered its average purchases for the coming 3 months.  This maneuver should prove problematic because the Federal Reserve’s buying power has been paramount in reinflating the credit market bubble.  While the Federal Reserve hopes that the recovering economy allows for moderate tightening, the real reason for altering the purchase program is the Dollar’s continued decline and the Federal Reserve’s fear of ending its purchases too abruptly.

The Federal Reserve’s attempt to manipulate the credit market is a path to ruin.  Although Ben Bernanke might believe that the recession and economic crisis are over, the Dollar’s decline to new 2009 lows is a signal that an orchestrated market corner cannot succeed.  As a result, the Federal Reserve’s ability to continue its supportive endeavor is clearly being undermined.  Despite the market corner appearing effective during the past six months with most asset prices having rallied, bond prices will one day begin to fall, and when they do, it will be clear that the market corner has failed. 

Daniel Aaronson - daaronson@continentalca.com
Lee Markowitz - lmarkowitz@continentalca.com

Continental Capital Advisors, LLC
Continental Capital Advisors, LLC was formed to offset the destruction of wealth caused by the global devaluation of currencies by central banks. The name Continental Capital symbolizes the 1775 US Currency, "the Continental", which was backed by nothing and quickly became devalued.

© 2009 Copyright Continental Capital Advisors, LLC - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules