Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Amazon AMZN Stock PRIMEDAY SALE! Trend Analysis - 20th Apr 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: You May Not Believe My 2021 Targets - 20th Apr 21
Stock Market Phase Two Projection - 20th Apr 21
Are Precious Metals & Miners Starting A New Longer-Term Bullish Trend? - 20th Apr 21
Inflation: First the Gain, Then the Pain… - 20th Apr 21
8 Stock Market Indicators in 1: Here's the Message of the Panic/Euphoria Model - 19th Apr 21
Gold - You Can Win a Battle, but Still Lose the War - 19th Apr 21
Will Interest Rates Rally Further Push Gold Price Down? - 19th Apr 21
Gold Fireworks Doubt the Official Inflation Story - 19th Apr 21
YuanPay Team Discuss The Process Of Crypto Diversification - 19th Apr 21
Central Banks May Ramp Up Gold Buying - 18th Apr 21
How to Get Rid of Driveway Weeds With Just WATER! 6 Months later NO Weeds, Ultimate Killer! - 18th Apr 21
State of the European Markets - DAX, FTSE, CAC, AEX, SMI, IBEX 35, S&P/MIB, Euro Stoxx 50, RTS - 18th Apr 21
Einvestment Fund: What You Need To Know About Investments - 18th Apr 21
Google Alphabet (GOOG) AI Deep Mind Stock Trend Analysis - 17th Apr 21
Stocks and Bonds Inflationary Slingshot - 17th Apr 21
Best Smartphone Selfie Stick Tripod Review by ATUMTEK Works with Samsung Galaxy and Iphone - 17th Apr 21
How to Give Budgie's First Bath | Easy Budgie Bathing and Water Training with Lettuce - 17th Apr 21
Record-breaking Decrease in New Passenger Vehicle Sale in Europe - 17th Apr 21
US Stocks Climb A “Wall Of Worry” To New Highs - 16th Apr 21
Gold’s Singular Role - 16th Apr 21
See what Anatomy of a Bursting Market Bubble looks like - 16th Apr 21
Many Stock Market Sectors Are Primed For Another Breakout Rally – Are You? - 16th Apr 21
What Skyrocketing US Home Prices Say About Inflation - 16th Apr 21
Still a Bullish Fever in Stocks? - 16th Apr 21
Trying to Buy Coinbase Stock on IPO Day - Institutional Investors Freeze out Retail Investors - 15th Apr 21
Stocks or Gold – Which Is in the Catbird Seat? - 15th Apr 21
Time For A Stock Market Melt-Up - 15th Apr 21
Stocks Bull Market Progression Now Shows Base Metal Strength - 15th Apr 21
AI Tech Stocks Buy Ratings, Levels and Valuations - 14th Apr 21
Easy 10% to 15% Overclock for 5600x, 5900x, 5950x Using AMD Ryzen Master Precision Boost Overdrive - 14th Apr 21
The Current Cannabis Sector Rally Is Pointing To Another Breakout - 14th Apr 21
U.S. Dollar Junk Bond Market The Easiest Money in History - 14th Apr 21
The SPY Is Nearing Resistance @ $410… What Is Next? - 14th Apr 21
The Curious Stock Market Staircase Rally - 14th Apr 21
Stocks are Heating Up - 14th Apr 21
Two Methods in Calculating For R&D Tax Credits - 14th Apr 21
Stock Market Minor Correction Due - 13th Apr 21
How to Feed Budgies Cucumbers - Best Vegetables Feeding for the First Time, Parakeet Care UK - 13th Apr 21
Biggest Inflation Threat in 40 Years Looms over Markets - 13th Apr 21
How to Get Rich with the Pareto Distribution - Tesco Example - 13th Apr 21
Litecoin and Bitcoin-Which Is Better? - 13th Apr 21
The Major Advantages Of Getting Your PhD Online - 12th Apr 21
Covid-19 Pandemic Current State for UK, US, Europe, Brazil Vaccinations vs Lockdown's Third Wave - 12th Apr 21
Why These Stock Market Indicators Should Grab Your Full Attention - 12th Apr 21
Rising Debt Means a Weaker US Dollar - 12th Apr 21
Another Gold Stocks Upleg - 12th Apr 21
AMD The ZEN Tech Stock - 12th Apr 21
Overclockers UK Build Quality - Why Glue Fan to CPU Heat sink Instead of Using Supplied Clips? - 12th Apr 21 -
What are the Key Capabilities You Should Look for in Fleet Management Software? - 12th Apr 21
What Is Bitcoin Gold? - 12th Apr 21
UK Covd-19 FREE Lateral Flow Self Testing Kits How Use for the First Time at Home - 10th Apr 21
NVIDIA Stock ARMED and Dangeorus! - 10th Apr 21
The History of Bitcoin Hard Forks - 10th Apr 21
Gold Mining Stocks: A House Built on Shaky Ground - 9th Apr 21
Stock Market On the Verge of a Pullback - 9th Apr 21
What Is Bitcoin Unlimited? - 9th Apr 21
Most Money Managers Gamble With Your Money - 9th Apr 21
Top 5 Evolving Trends For Mobile Casinos - 9th Apr 21
Top 5 AI Tech Stocks Investing 2021 Analysis - 8th Apr 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021 - Crash or Continuing Bull Run? - 8th Apr 21
Don’t Be Fooled by the Stock Market Rally - 8th Apr 21
Gold and Latin: Twin Pillars of Western Rejuvenation - 8th Apr 21
Stronger US Dollar Reacts To Global Market Concerns – Which ETFs Will Benefit? Part II - 8th Apr 21
You're invited: Spot the Next BIG Move in Oil, Gas, Energy ETFs - 8th Apr 21
Ladies and Gentlemen, Mr US Dollar is Back - 8th Apr 21
Stock Market New S&P 500 Highs or Metals Rising? - 8th Apr 21
Microsoft AI Azure Cloud Computing Driving Tech Giant Profits - 7th Apr 21
Amazon Tech Stock PRIMEDAY SALE- 7th Apr 21
The US has Metals Problem - Lithium, Graphite, Copper, Nickel Supplies - 7th Apr 21
Yes, the Fed Will Cover Biden’s $4 Trillion Deficit - 7th Apr 21
S&P 500 Fireworks and Gold Going Stronger - 7th Apr 21
Stock Market Perceived Vs. Actual Risks: The Key To Success - 7th Apr 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Stock Market Rally, Time to be a Contrarian?

Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets Sep 23, 2009 - 08:38 AM GMT

By: Claus_Vogt


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleClaus Vogt writes: Many successful investors and speculators, like Warren Buffett and George Soros, are said to be contrarians. But what does this really mean? And is it true?

Let’s have a look at the concept of contrarianism to find out whether it can give us some guidance during these exciting times …

Contrarians are investors with deep knowledge and strong self-efficacy. They possess a rare nature: They’re willing and capable of forming an independent opinion and sticking to it. Even if a huge majority of analysts, journalists, colleagues, and friends hold an opposite point of view.

As the legendary Wall Street analyst Henry Kaufman wrote in his memoirs:

” … most predictions fall within a rather narrow range that does not deviate from consensus views in the financial community. In large measure, this reflects an all-too-human propensity to minimize risk and avoid isolation. There is, after all, comfort in running with the crowd. Doing so makes it impossible to be singled out for being wrong, and allows one to avoid envy or resentment that often inflicts those who are right more often than not.”

Warren Buffett doesn't mind bucking the trend when he gets the right signals.
Warren Buffett doesn’t mind bucking the trend when he gets the right signals.

But contrarians usually don’t take the easy route … they’re accustomed to swimming against the stream. And they rarely make friends by doing so. Instead they expose themselves to mockery when they’re wrong and to wrath and envy when they are right.

In Fact, There’s a Risk with Always Being a Contrarian …

Contrarians may be early with their timing. For that, they will be laughed at. But they don’t mind … they know that they’ll eventually be proven right.

They know that imbalances and the madness of crowds can go on much longer than anyone can imagine ― so they wait for the unavoidable to happen. Hence contrarians need patience and discipline. They have to have the guts to try again and again to finally catch a major trend change.

Only by luck, though, will they hit a homerun with the first try. More often than not they have to implement a position step by step to average down their costs. Or they’ll try to get in a few times, only to be stopped out with a small loss again and again until finally they get it right — and hit it big!

My Point Is Simple: It’s Good to Always Think Like a Contrarian, But You Should Only ACT Like a Contrarian When the Time Is Right …

Markets are trending, and strong trends can regularly go on for many months or even years. As long as a trend is intact, investors should embrace it and run with it. Only during its end, when it’s on the verge of turning, should you jump off and become a contrarian. Otherwise you’ll always find yourself fighting the trend instead of making some nice gains.

So it should be clear then that a successful investor must approach the market with the skepticism of a contrarian but also know how to follow the trends.

How can this be accomplished?

By applying technical analysis and common sense.

There’s no holy grail of investing. But there are some very good and rather simple tools, or indicators, that can help you know when it’s time to follow or buck the trend.

One of the best known trend-following tools is the 200-day moving average. As long as it’s rising, you should be looking to buy the dips. And when it’s declining, you should be looking to sell the rallies.

Combine it with the advance/decline line and the advance/decline volume line to give you early warnings of a possible trend change.

Smart investors know when it's time to leave the crowd … and become contrarians.
Smart investors know when it’s time to leave the crowd … and become contrarians.

Of course that’s not all it takes to become a good investor. Monetary policy and macro-economic analysis should be added to your analytical tool box, too.

And here’s a piece of old Wall Street wisdom that’s regularly forgotten exactly when it’s needed the most: “Never fight the Fed.” So contrarians watch for short-term rates to go higher than long-term rates. That tells them that a recession and a stock market plunge could be coming.

Finally, you should follow the leading economic indicators (LEI). In my August 26 Money and Markets column, I told you how the LEI is the most successful recession predictor I know of. When they signal a recession, you should believe them and start to leave the bullish crowd. And when they’re predicting that the economy will grow, you should value this insight and act accordingly.

Today the LEIs are predicting that the economy will grow. Fed policy is very lax. And the S&P 500 index’s 200-day moving average is rising as are the advance/decline lines.

Therefore, you should expect the stock market’s rise to continue no matter what the little contrarian inside you might be thinking.

Best wishes,


This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets . Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit .

Money and Markets Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules