Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Time to take the RED Pill - 28th May 24
US Economy Slowing Slipping into Recession, But Not There Yet - 28th May 24
Gold vs. Silver – Very Important Medium-term Signal - 28th May 24
Is Gold Price Heading to $2,275 - 2,280? - 28th May 24
Stocks Bull Market Smoking Gun - 25th May 24
Congress Moves against Totalitarian Central Bank Digital Currency Schemes - 25th May 24
Government Tinkering With Prices Is Like Hiding All of the Street Signs - 25th May 24
Gold Mid Tier Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 25th May 24
Why US Interest Rates are a Nothing Burger - 24th May 24
Big Banks Are Pressuring The Fed To Losen Protection For Depositors - 24th May 24
Another Bank Failure: How to Tell if Your Bank is At Risk - 24th May 24
AI Stocks Portfolio and Tesla - 23rd May 24
All That Glitters Isn't Gold: Silver Has Outperformed Gold During This Gold Bull Run - 23rd May 24
Gold and Silver Expose Stock Market’s Phony Gains - 23rd May 24
S&P 500 Cyclical Relative Performance: Stocks Nearing Fully Valued - 23rd May 24
Nvidia NVDA Stock Earnings Rumble After Hours - 22nd May 24
Stock Market Trend Forecasts for 2024 and 2025 - 21st May 24
Silver Price Forecast: Trumpeting the Jubilee | Sovereign Debt Defaults - 21st May 24
Bitcoin Bull Market Bubble MANIA Rug Pulls 2024! - 19th May 24
Important Economic And Geopolitical Questions And Their Answers! - 19th May 24
Pakistan UN Ambassador Grows Some Balls Accuses Israel of Being Like Nazi Germany - 19th May 24
Could We See $27,000 Gold? - 19th May 24
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 19th May 24
The Gold and Silver Ship Will Set Sail! - 19th May 24
Micro Strategy Bubble Mania - 10th May 24
Biden's Bureau of Labor Statistics is Cooking Jobs Reports - 10th May 24
Bitcoin Price Swings Analysis - 9th May 24
Could Chinese Gold Be the Straw That Breaks the Dollar's Back? - 9th May 24
The Federal Reserve Is Broke! - 9th May 24
The Elliott Wave Crash Course - 9th May 24
Psychologically Prepared for Bitcoin Bull Market Bubble MANIA Rug Pull Corrections 2024 - 8th May 24
Why You Should Pay Attention to This Time-Tested Stock Market Indicator Now - 8th May 24
Copper: The India Factor - 8th May 24
Gold 2008 and 2022 All Over Again? Stocks, USDX - 8th May 24
Holocaust Survivor States Israel is Like Nazi Germany, The Fourth Reich - 8th May 24
Fourth Reich Invades Rafah Concentration Camp To Kill Palestinian Children - 8th May 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Trading Carbon Emissions Allowances - The EUA Contract

Commodities / Climate Change Jul 23, 2009 - 05:57 AM GMT

By: Seven_Days_Ahead

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week in the Commodity Trading Guide we commenced regular coverage of EUA – (Carbon) Emissions Allowances. Interest and, accordingly, volume is growing strongly in this market, and the charts lend themselves well to technical analysis. In this Update we reproduce our analysis from the Guide.


The Commodity Trader’s view


MONTHLY CHART – CONTINUATION:
The interesting points to note here are:

  1. This long term chart has channelled very well – the base projection was briefly eroded in early 2009
  2.  If we’d been charting this much sooner we would have calculated a 8.52 equality target (33.05-12.22 downmove extended off 29.35 high)
  3.  For non-technical reasons there is currently a floor around 8.00

All the above combined to support the market - we now assume that a medium/long term recovery phase is underway.

 

WEEKLY CHART – CONTINUATION:

For clarity, the candlestick chart here reveals, bar a few ticks, a bearish Key Reversal Week in Jul-08, marking the start of the major leg down.

More recently there was another one in May, marking the start of the latest pullback phase.

Resistance from 15.85/16.22 is clear (May high and 38.2%).

- a break higher would bring into focus prior 18.25/18.80 lows and the 18.73 50% level, where we would expect further resistance to emerge.

Note how the start of the final downleg segment in late 2008 coincides with the 38.2% retracement – underlying Fibo forces at work?....Of course!

DAILY CHART – Dec-09::

Recently the market had stuck at the 38.2% pullback.

A s/term bull signal came from the break from the small bear channel top projection.

Last week saw resistance around the small 61.8% level; the next test for the bulls would be the small 76.4% level just above 15.00 – resistance soon would not surprise.

We don’t know yet if there is another downleg to come, that breaks below the 12.42 Jun low.

13.70 26-Jun high offers first support, but of more interest is the rising support line at 13.35 currently, ahead of that 38.2% area around 12.90.

A good close below the latter would show that another downleg was underway. Meanwhile we await better clarity in the s/term chart structure - we have adopted a sidelined stance for now. Interested readers are invited to track the progress of this market for a month, free of charge via our trial subscription offers. This would also qualify for a year’s free Updates too. Finally, note also the correlation between EUA and Crude Oil.

Philip Allwright
Mark Sturdy

Seven Days Ahead
Be sure to sign up for and receive these articles automatically at Market Updates

Mark Sturdy, John Lewis & Philip Allwright, write exclusively for Seven Days Ahead a regulated financial advisor selling professional-level technical and macro analysis and high-performing trade recommendations with detailed risk control for banks, hedge funds, and expert private investors around the world. Check out our subscriptions.

© 2009 Copyright Seven Days Ahead - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Seven Days Ahead Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in