Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

US T-Bond Yield Hits Resistance, A potential problem for the Fed?

Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates Jun 05, 2007 - 07:20 PM GMT

By: Marty_Chenard

Interest-Rates

In case nobody is watching, the 30 Year Bond Yield is about to test its 8 year resistance for the second time. This is something to keep a close eye on, because 30 year yields and mortgage rates go hand in hand. See the long term chart below.

The concern is that home building is in a slump and many are speculating that we might be at a bottom ... ready to turn around. If the 30 year yield jumps up, then that would effect how large a home someone could afford, and it would mean that home sellers would get less for their homes in the longer term ... and fewer homes would sell.


For instance, the average new 30 year fixed mortgage is now 6.05%. At 6%, a $300,000 mortgage is $1710 per month. At 7%, the mortgage goes up to $1916 for an increase of 12%. That means that a borrower would have to pay the same $1710 now for a house that was $264,000. He either gets the $300,000 on sale for $264,000 or he buys a cheaper house. That creates a competitive situation for home sellers where they would have to lower the price of their home in order to hook one of the fewer buyers that are out there.

The point is, if we see the TYX break out of its resistance and move higher, it will significantly hurt the housing industry that is already in a lot of trouble.

If mortgage rates escalate, then the Fed is going to have a bigger problem to fix. Sub-prime and variable rate mortgages will rise dramatically with a substantial increase in foreclosures. The level of consumer home buying will decrease with the effect of lowering the value of homes. This could make banks nervous as the spread between equity vs. mortgage debt reduces the protection cushion that banks want to have.

The 30 year yield hasn't broken above its long term resistance, but is certainly something that investors should keep an eye on because of the possible long term implications.

US T-Bond Yield Hits Resistance, A potential problem for the Fed?

The housing sector is still in deep trouble in spite of Bill Gates and Warren Buffett buying housing stocks weeks ago in the belief that the sector would be bottoming out and improving.

However, the carnage in home building has not stopped. Home builder, Meyer-Sutton, filed for bankruptcy on Monday saying that, "The housing market has suffered a dramatic decline in demand, with the result problems of excess inventory and compressed profit margins,". In its bankruptcy filing, the company stated that it has cut new construction starts to 2 per month from 25 per month ... a 92 % decrease in the number of homes they were building.

Ara Hovnanian predicted that housing sales will not rebound significantly this year. Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., reported a quarterly loss of $30.7 million last Thursday.

Toll Brothers reported lower earnings, and Pulte Homes announced that it is slashing 1,900 jobs, or about 1 in 6 of their employees.

Below is the Residential Sector Monthly chart going back to 2002. Clearly, the sector is still "under water".

By Marty Chenard
http://www.stocktiming.com/

Please Note: We do not issue Buy or Sell timing recommendations on these Free daily update pages . I hope you understand, that in fairness, our Buy/Sell recommendations and advanced market Models are only available to our paid subscribers on a password required basis. Membership information

Marty Chenard is the Author and Teacher of two Seminar Courses on "Advanced Technical Analysis Investing", Mr. Chenard has been investing for over 30 years. In 2001 when the NASDAQ dropped 24.5%, his personal investment performance for the year was a gain of 57.428%. He is an Advanced Stock Market Technical Analyst that has developed his own proprietary analytical tools.  As a result, he was out of the market two weeks before the 1987 Crash in the most recent Bear Market he faxed his Members in March 2000 telling them all to SELL.  He is an advanced technical analyst and not an investment advisor, nor a securities broker.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in