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Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018
Jul 21, 2018 - 09:01 AM GMT By: Nadeem_Walayat
Greetings Patrons,
Here is my latest stock market analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the whole of the remainder of 2018 that you have FIRST access to for 14 days Before the rest of the world!
Trumponomics Stock Market - The Manchurian President
Trumponomics in a nutshell can be summed up as a mish mash of policies built on tweets that has surprisingly so far delivered relative stock market strength for the broad US markets this year that has the Dow currently trading at 25,064 marginally up from at the start of the year opening level of 24,720 whilst standing up 7.5% a from its early April low of 23,300. So as the Dow chart illustrates the stock market has refused to FALL this year despite the chaos of the unfolding trade war that has been the focus of the mainstream press for 2018.
(Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com)
Furthermore the Dow even failed to achieve my relatively mild early year expectations for a correction down to 23000, just avoiding that trough by 300 points or so. Though it remains to be seen if this means that the stock market is preparing to break higher to new all times any time soon, which will be the focus of this 2 part analysis to determine.
But firstly a recap of my early 2018 expectations for the stock market that warned that the opening surge to above Dow 26,200 would soon result in a severe correction to target Dow 23,000.
23 Jan 2018 - Stocks Bull Market Appears to have a Destiny With 1929
The stocks bull market continues to confound my expectations for a significant correction which is just failing to materialise! Firstly understand this, I AM a stock market bull i.e. I am net long of the stock market, so a rising stock market is good for my portfolio. BUT, for a while now I have not considered this ongoing rally to be healthy for the life of the stocks bull market, and why despite being a bull I am BEARISH for its prospects.
For instance my last update on the stock market at the start of 2018 concluded in expectations for an imminent correction towards Dow 23,000 from the then lofty level of 24,700.
01 Jan 2018 - Dow Stock Market Trend Expectations into Early 2018
A quick look at the Dow chart shows that despite being overbought, the Dow is not showing signs for an imminent demise to this stocks bull market. Whilst the most probable trend likely to materialise over the first few months of 2018 is for the Dow to revert back down towards hugging the central trendline that currently stands at very distant 23,000. So ahead of my in-depth analysis I would not be one for expecting the Dow's December surge to continue during January, instead expect the Dow to unwind its overbought state.
Clearly given the ongoing rally the market is continuing to deviate from my expectations. For me this is a RED DANGER WARNING FLAG!
Then came the first of a series of reactions lower towards my target of Dow 23,000.
09 Feb 2018 - Stock Market Roller Coaster Crash Ride Down to Dow Forecast 23,000
So What is Likely to Happen Next ?
Well we are likely to continue to see wild roller coaster swings, up one day and down the next with the trend trajectory remaining towards my target of 23,000, and as yesterday was a strong down day, then today (Friday) should be a strong up day for the Dow at least. As for what happens after 23,000 is achieved, well for that I will need to fully evaluate the damage done to the market, not from the February's crash but by Januarys rally, whether the nose dive to 23k is enough to fix a broken stock market or whether the market needs to go much, much lower.
The Trump Deficit
So despite Fed interest rates tightening that clearly has been offset by Trump money printing (US government debt) which of course is another reality that is not reflected in Trump rhetoric of seeking to correct Obama era deficit spending as one can take a good 80% that which spouts from Trumps mouth with a pinch of salt, as he literally flip flops on where he stands depending on who is sat in front of him just as we have witnessed this week with the 'Would be' or 'Wouldn't be' saga concerning Russian interference in the 2016 US presidential election, to help get Putin's Manchurian candidate elected.
Deficit reality is that Trump has exploded the US budget deficit so that the spending more than offsets Fed tightening hence the observed relative economic and stock market strength.
The deficit projections under Trump compared to Obama's last term in office clearly point to another busted Trump mantra, one of Trump seeking to correct out of control Obama deficit spending, when the opposite is true (note Obama's first term followed George Bush;s disastrous Presidency who literally handed Obama an economy that was in a state of collapse with the financial markets teetering on brink of financial armageddon).
Trump deficit spending is definitely inflationary and thus a net positive for assets that are leveraged to inflation such as stocks and housing that I will cover in depth over the coming months as my existing US house prices long-term trend forecast has long since matured, and which proved remarkably accurate, especially given that it ran a wall of worry with perpetual doom merchants always calling for the US housing markets imminent collapse when the OPPOSITE materialised.
The Trump man Show
The latest from the Trump man show saw Czar Putin's manchurian president wreck havoc across Europe before he paid homage to his master in Helsinki
Trump effectively blew what little cover he had left of being Czar Putin's Manchurian President, as he lavished praise on the Russian Dictator whilst deriding his own law enforcement and Intelligence agencies and their evidence of Russian interference in the 2016 Presidential Election, as Trump chose to side with Putin by following the Czar's script rather than the growing volume of evidence of Russian interference in the election that just days earlier had prompted the US to indict 12 Russian intelligence agents for hacking of DNC servers. That were a likely response to Trump's own statements made during the campaign for the Russians to to hack and leak Hillary's emails as he continued with the theme at the Press conference in Helsinki.
"I think that the [Mueller] probe is a disaster for our country. I think it's kept us apart, it's kept us separated. There was no collusion at all. Everybody knows it. People are being brought out to the fore. So far that I know, virtually none of it related to the campaign. And they're going to have to try really hard to find somebody that did relate to the campaign. That was a clean campaign.
I beat Hillary Clinton easily, and frankly we beat her, and I'm not even saying from the standpoint ... we won that race. And it's a shame that there could even be a little bit of a cloud over it. People know that, people understand it, but the main thing, and we discussed this also, ZERO COLLUSION ... "
You have groups that are wondering why the FBI never took the server -- haven't they taken the server. Why was the FBI told to leave the office of the Democratic National Committee?
I've been wondering that, I've been asking that for months and months and I've been tweeting it out and calling it out on social media. Where is the server? I want to know where is the server and what is the server saying?
With that being said, all I can do is ask the question. My people came to me, Dan Coats came to me and some others, they said they think it's Russia. I have President Putin; he just said it's not Russia.
I will say this: I don't see any reason why it would be. But I really do want to see the server.
What happened to Hillary Clinton's e-mails? 33,000 e-mails gone -- just gone. I think in Russia they wouldn't be gone so easily. I think it's a disgrace that we can't get Hillary Clinton's 33,000 e-mails.
So I have great confidence in my intelligence people, but I will tell you that President Putin was extremely strong and powerful in his denial today."
Putin on the 'Pee Pee' Tape:
"Yeah, I did hear these rumours that we allegedly collected compromising material on Mr. Trump when he was visiting Moscow. Well, distinguished colleague, let me tell you this: When President Trump was at Moscow back then, I didn't even know that he was in Moscow. I treat President Trump with utmost respect, but back then when he was a private individual, a businessman, nobody informed me that he was in Moscow."
The unanimous reaction to the Trump Show in Helsinki right across media spectrum from the establishment liberal media through to Fox News was one of how could the President of the United States side with an 'enemy' over that of his own intelligence agencies. Hence an overt Manchurian President acting on behalf of Russian interests.
This followed a week of Trump seeking to weaken US ties with Europe nations and institutions such as NATO, even going so far as referring to the European Union as a Foe of the United States just before he set off for his meeting with Czar Putin in Helsinki
"Well, I think we have a lot of foes. I think the European Union is a foe, what they do to us in trade. Now, you wouldn't think of the European Union, but they're a foe. Russia is foe in certain respects. China is a foe economically, certainly they are a foe. But that doesn't mean they are bad. It doesn't mean anything. It means that they are competitive."
Which should not come as any surprise to those who have been following my Trump Reset, War with China series of articles and videos since before Trump took office. The most recent of which focused on the fact that Trump was systematically attempting to destroy the US Empire that most western nations such as the EU are part of that Trump apparently fails to comprehend the existence of, instead his actions seek to promote competitor empires such as China and Russia whilst unleashing forces that have been kept bottled up since the end of WW2 i.e. Germany and Japan seeking to re-arm in the name of defence but which will let the genie out of the bottle as each will increasingly seek to exert their rising military power in their own backyards as I covered in my following recent article:
Trump Destroying US Empire in Trade War Against China, Europe and Canada - 6th Jul 18
Trumps actions in office, are not just limited to the highly damaging trade war against America's western allies with whom Trump should be coordinating the Trade War against China, but his actions are undermining the very pillars on which the US Empire has stood for 70 years such as NATO. Which as I warned in December 2016 not only risks destroying the fundamentals of the US Empire but risks giving birth to new competitor Empires by unleashing the likes of Germany in Europe and Japan in Asia to re-arm and once more and embark upon their own military and economic agendas in the name of defence, where in Europe the emerging Fourth Reich (already in existence economically) would see the reason for its militirisation as a deterrence against a belligerent Russia as US guarantees could no longer be relied upon.
Whilst in Asia we have Japan also re-arming due to lack of credibility of US military guarantees in deterrence of the ever expanding Chinese Empire. Though as these two NEW competing empires emerge and grow then undoubtedly they would seek to displace US influence in their regions, thus Trumps actions are splintering the world into multiple competing military and economic blocks as the United States empire remains primarily focused on the Chinese threat, thus turning a blind eye to the emerging threats of Germany and Japan that would once more see the western Pacific as Japan's back yard. Which is probably what a short-sighted Trump wants to happen because it means the US does not need to spend as much money on containing China as the Japanese would increasingly do the job, all without realising what Japan would do with its vastly expanded military.
The consequences of dismantling of the US Empire and unpleasing Japan and Germany is clearly something that Trump completely fails to comprehend given his simplistic Fox News world view.
And comprehensive video analysis covering the implications of the unfolding US Trade War not just against China but much of the rest of the Western World.
Furthermore I have been warning my readers before Trump took office that he would be at war with his intelligence agencies given the conflict of Trump promoting Russian interests over US interests due to the fact that Putin helped Trump get elected and with the so called "pee pee" tape hanging over him.
04 Jan 2017 - CIA Planning Rogue President Donald Trump Assassination? Elites "Manchurian Candidate" Plan B
The CIA has already effectively warned that Donald Trump is Putin's manchurian candidate as I covered in my extensive article (27 Dec 2016 - The Trump Reset - Regime Change, Russia the Over Hyped Fake News SuperPower (Part1) . So given the way things stand today, to imagine that a CIA death squad is not game playing the assassination of President Trump fly's in the face of the past 60 years of CIA history of worldwide and domestic slaughter. Where any perceived threat against the US establishment prompts extreme measures even of that threat is deemed to be from the office of the President of the United States.
My warnings also extended to when Trump campaigned as Putin's Manchurian Candidate for President of how the Russians were desperately attempting to get Trump elected and why.
31 Jul 2016 - Putin Hacking Hillary for Trump, Russia's Manchurian Candidate?
Trump last week called on the Russian dictator to hack Hillary's emails “Russia, if you are listening, I hope that you are able to find the 30,000 e-mails that are missing. I think that you will probably be rewarded mightily by our press. Let’s see if that happens,” which apparently according to the FBI has already happened as part of the great game that Putin is playing to help Trump become the next President of the United States.
What baring does all of this have on the economy and stock market?
We'll Trumponomics is in many ways similar to Reagonomics, however there the objective there was to defeat the Soviet Empire, whilst today we have the President Trump apparently seeking to dismantle the US Empire. Trying to create a world that is ripe for conflict hence my Trump Reset War with China series. All of which is good for remaining exposed to the defence sector, and of courser highly inflationary, where a growing economy is good for asset prices that tend to be leveraged to inflation such as stocks.
China Lost the Trade War Even Before it Began
And as mentioned earlier the Dow has shown remarkable strength in the face of Trump Trade War chaos.
Lets also take a look at China's SSEC -
We'll when comparing the above two charts it should be obvious to all that not only who will lose this Trade War, but that China has ALREADY LOST the Trade War even before its got going! That's because the markets DISCOUNT the future!
The numbers speak from themselves the SSEC is down by SEVERE 29% from it's 2018 high of 3587. Whilst the Dow stands just 5.5% down from hit's 2018 high. Imagine if the Dow had fallen by 29%, how much panic there would in the mainstream media about the collapse in stock prices.
So capital flight is clearly underway in China at an alarming rate and going to where? The United States of course! For whilst the consensus that populates the mainstream press continues to repeat the mantra that no one wins a trade war. However, what they fail to comprehend is CAPITAL FLOWS that far exceed the headline trade tariff figures!
And what we see playing out in the Chinese stock market is likely taking place right across the spectrum of China's markets as scared investors ditch Chinese holdings in favour of safer destinations, mainly the United States and perhaps some other western markets.
So the big unintended consequences of the trade war against China and much the rest of the world is not really the actual impact of the tariffs themselves but rather the much larger capital flows already underway that dwarf the actual headline trade tariff numbers. And as the above charts illustrate this is a BIG net positive for the US Stock market and probably housing market as well to the detriment of all the large trade surplus nations who just CANNOT win this Trade War that the markets fully understand and are seeking to discount by disinvesting form them.
At the end of the day I see the trade war in terms of being a big comeuppance, a day of reckoning for the chinese crime syndicate that has conned and stolen its way to development. As the chinese economy experiences trade war pain then expect the always behind the curve mainstream media to start reporting on how China has been ripping off and conning other nations across the world.
Given the unfolding fundamentals, then China is one place in the world that you definitely don't want to be invested right now! Which as I warned in my analysis of 6th July (Trump Destroying US Empire in Trade War Against China, Europe and Canada) is ripe for a Trade War induced financial panic!
Stock Market Technical Analysis and Concluding Trend Forecast
---- PATRONS ONLY CONTENT FOLLOWS ----
The Inflationary Exponential Stocks Bull Market
This is a good time to remind my readers of the difference in perception of between bull and bear markets for they are not the same. The stock market does not exist in a trading range that oscillates between roughly equal bull and bear market price gyrations. The primary over riding trend is always INFLATIONARY which means Bear markets are CORRECTIONS.
In fact we are currently in the mother of all bull markets, even if my expectations since Trump got elected have been of a mature bull market set to experience a series of significant corrections of 8% or so, as was my expectation of early 2018 (Dow 23k target).
So whilst today the bears are once more blaming the Fed for the failure for stocks to fall, and it's not the Fed or the corporate's for buying back their own stock, or that the markets are manipulated! All without understanding the fundamental fact that the MARKET is the sum of ALL of ACTIONS and the only place where this can be seen to become manifest is in the PRICE, just as I stated in March 2009 right at the beginning of this stocks bull market!
15 Mar 2009 - Stealth Bull Market Follows Stocks Bear Market Bottom at Dow 6,470
The markets ARE manipulated, once you as a small investor come to agree with this statement then you can take the necessary steps to prevent yourself from being wiped out by ALWAYS keeping this in mind that Manipulated markets WANT you to act in a certain manner at certain times, they want you to buy into the latter stages of a bubble as the manipulators distribute, and the market manipulators want you to SELL into Market Bottoms and early bull rallies when the manipulators are accumulating.
Who are the market manipulators ? Today it is the Investment banks, investment funds, CEO's (stock options) and last but not least HEDGE FUNDS that created the stocks bubble through leverage of X20 or more that subsequently bankrupted the banks that were driven insane by short-term greed with trillions of dollars of liabilities which have NOW been fraudulently dumped onto the tax payers. I have not heard a single story of a hedge fund manager losing money, not one! They have BANKED their profits ! The losers are their investors who held on and the banks who leveraged them up to the tune of tens of trillions, and in the final instance the Tax payers who are being FORCED to bail out the bankrupt banks to the tunes of tens of trillions!
The only thing that actually matters is the PRICE ! NOTHING ELSE! and I mean NOTHING ! Not earnings, Not fundamentals. Listen to the PRICE or you WILL miss the Stealth Bull Market!
And remember this is what I have been stating for the EIGHT YEAR DURATION of this stocks bull market that the Fed and the rest have been manipulating stock markets since at least October 1987! The day after the crash when the Dow BOUNCED! (See how I beat the 1987 CRASH) and my following 3 ebook's (FREE DOWNLOAD).
Where my message for the duration of this 8 year stocks bull market has been a very simple one of "greater the deviation from the bull market peak then the greater the buying opportunity presented".
And even though all bull markets do eventually come to an end. However, that end ALWAYS tends to prove temporary, soon appearing as inconsequential blips on the long-term trend chart as the overall inflationary stock market trend is exponential! Which is why the Great Stock Market crashes of the past such as 1929 and 1987 are barely visible blips today.
Similarly the likes of the dot com bubble bear market and financial crisis have already been diminished in significance in terms of the long-term trend i.e. it does not matter that much whether one bought stocks near the 2007 top at say Dow 13,000 or towards the bear market bottom say 800 in terms of the current value of ones stock market holdings at Dow 25,000. And definitely not when compared to what the perma bears would have experienced if they had actually shorted stocks at any point that their mantra proclaimed that THE FINAL TOP was IN! And then held those shorts as the Dow rallied to 25k!
So bear these two points in mind when investing in stocks -
1. The greater the deviation from the bull market peak then the greater the buying opportunity presented".
2. The long-term inflationary stock market trend is Exponential!
Thus the reality of ALL bear markets in the general stock market indices such as the Dow is to present investors with their latest stock buying opportunities in advance of the resumption of what is an inflationary exponential stock market trend, all whilst the bears perpetuate none existant deflationary scenarios.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Where elliott wave is concerned I like to keep things very simple which is why I don't adhere to the many tenants of elliott wave theory as for me, EW is just a another technical tool.
Firstly, as expected the Jan peak was a fifth wave peak that heralded in an ABC correction. Now my target for this correction was Dow 23,000. Apparently the lowest it actually achieved was Dow 23,300. So it fulfilled the criteria for a correction that should have heralded the resumption of the stock markets advance.
However, the subsequent 5 waves / zig zags higher have been pretty feeble, coming nowhere near breaking above the January high. Whilst the Wave 2 correction lower has been strong. This suggests that the Dow is going to find it tough to breakout of its trading range to new all time highs. Probably not until towards the end of the year where Elliott Wave is suggesting a marginal new high above 26,600.
TREND ANALYSIS
The Dow is clearly stuck in a trading range where each break of a resistance trend line fails to trigger an assault on the 26,600 high. Furthermore until quite recently the risks to the Dow were on the downside. Which has improved since May when the Dow has been showing signs of leaving the sub 24k levels behind and thus implies is targeting a trend towards 26,600.
RESISTANCE : There is heavy over head resistance from 25,200 all the way to 25,800. Beyond which lies the all time high of 26,600.
SUPPORT is along a series of higher lows off of the April low of 23,300. With nearest support at 24,000 rising to 24,200.
TREND CHANNELS - There is an emerging trend channel along the 24,900 and 25,400 highs that gives the Dow a weak upward bias.
Overall trend analysis paints a picture of a market stuck in a trading range with an upward bias with no signs for an imminent breakout higher. With the immediate trend implying a marginal correction lower.
MACD - The MACD is fairly neutral, which similarly to trend analysis suggests that the Dow is in corrective mode implying an immediate term correction lower.
VIX - Since the early year stocks plunge the VIX has gradually become calmer with each passing correction which does appear to be laying the groundwork for an stock advance higher. So the Trade War does not appear to be worrying the stock market yet.
Yield Curve Inversion
An inverted yield curve is basically when the yield on 2 year US government bond yield exceeds the 10 10 year US bond yield due to investor uncertainty of the near term economic outlook and thus investors opt to disinvest from risky assets in favour of safer longer term government bonds thus driving down bond yields below that of nearer term bonds. And the closer the yield curve gets towards inversion the greater the alarm bells ring for a future recession. So far the yield curve inversion has successfully forecast the last 3 economic downturns in the United States of the past 40 years. Though the YCI has proved less reliable elsewhere, especially for Australia.
So where does the yield curve currently stand ?
The spread between the 2 year and 10 year US bonds has greatly narrowed towards an inversion bouncing off a low of 0.24 to currently stand at 0,29. And given the fact that the US Fed is raising short-term rates with 2 more rate hikes totaling 0.5% planned for 2018, then that can only lead to a further narrowing of the spread towards an inversion by the end of this year.
So yes, the Yield curve is narrowing towards an inversion, which would be a warning signal for future economic weakness. Which implies trade war consequences for the US becoming manifest some months AFTER the yield curve inverts. However both the yield curve trend towards inversion and the delay in impact are unlikely to become manifest during 2018, i.e. probably around Spring 2019. So this does not bode well for the prospects for the stock market for much of 2019, but first the yield curve needs to invert, which it has NOT done yet. So the YC is something to keep an eye on to come back to in future updates as there is even a possibility that this time things could be different i.e. the YC could just reflect CHINESE economic and financial weakness as capital is finding it's way into the relative safety of US Government bonds, hence the narrowing in the US yield curve.
US Presidential Cycle
For the first year of Trumps Presidency we would constantly hear about how great the stock market was doing under Trump, in fact he still says the same despite the stock market having flat lined for 2018.
The basic pattern for the US Presidential cycle is for a strong election year and post election year, followed by weak Mid-term then a strong pre-election year.
The trend to date is clearly continuing to prove remarkably inline with the US presidential cycle. Which does not bode well for the remainder of the 2018 i.e. implies stocks are going to remain stuck in this trading range for the WHOLE of 2018! Which is one of the reasons why I was bearish for the prospects for the stock market at the start of the year.
SEASONAL ANALYSIS
The basic stock market seasonal pattern is after a weak January for stocks to rally into May then down into August, then after a wobble during October, to rally into the end of the year. Well mostly for 2018 that's not how things are playing out as the market has been showing relative strength since Mid May. I supposed it could still fall into Labor day. Anyway the seasonal point to a weak October then its up into the end of the year.
FUNDAMENTALS
US Economy
The US economic fundamentals are good, as real GDP is rising at an annualised rate of 2%, whilst not a boom is definitely not deflationary so supportive for stock prices, as the economy continues to chug along whilst the Fed raises interest rates.
A stable strong economy can further be seen in the unemployment statistics of just 4% with a continually rising record number of americans in work at 148 million, up 18 million from the 130 million trough in the aftermath of the financial crisis.
Whilst inflation is significantly above the Feds 2% target at 2.9% hence the Fed's rate hiking cycle. However inflation tends to be good for the stock market. This also makes me wonder what the deflationistas are smoking with their perma mantra for an always imminent deflationary collapse. There is NO deflation! Nor will there ever be (apart from the rare blips such as November 2008).
So the fundamentals are supportive of rising stock prices.
Formulating a Stock Market Forecast
Now to the hard part, to convert all of the above into a trend forecast for as far distant into the future as I can reliably conclude.
The overall emerging picture from this analysis is one of a market stuck in a trading range with an upward bias. The key question is whether the Dow can break higher out of the trading range or not? Technical analysis including EW suggests YES, whilst the likes of the Presidential cycle says NO.
Furthermore a choppy trading range makes trend projections problematic i.e. it is not easy to say when a swing will top or bottom just what the overall direction should be. So in terms of determining trend then an obvious trough for the stock market would be during October, which would likely be coming off a September high. Than that downtrend during October would need to bottom by mid November to set the scene for the expected December santa rally that could just see the market at least challenge it's all time high.
Dow Stock Market Forecast Conclusion
Therefore my forecast conclusion as illustrated by the below chart is for the Dow to target a trend towards Dow 26,000 by Mid September, following which the market should correct during October that could retrace all of the move from August to Mid September which would then set the scene for the Santa rally to start during November and continue post Christmas that would target a new all time high at approx Dow 27,000.
Peering into the Mysts of Time
A Trade war induced China financial crisis coupled with weakening economic indicators such as a narrowing in the Yield Curve towards Inversion does NOT bode well for the stock market for 2019, so perhaps it would be wise to lighten one's stock holdings during this forecast Trump rally. Just as it has proven wise to have dumped Chinese stocks earlier this year!
Your analyst,
Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.
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