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Monday, January 21, 2008

Stock Market Wake-up Call / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets

By: Dominick

Two years ago I made a call that anyone who's read this newsletter long enough will remember or at least have heard about. In July 2006, with the market at multi-month lows, TTC got long the S&P futures for a move to 1360 that seemed incredible at the time – certainly no one else was seeing it, let alone trading it. But, by October the S&P futures had rapidly advanced 200 points and my target was hit.

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Sunday, January 20, 2008

US Stock Markets Crash and Burn Whilst The Fed Fiddles / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Robert_McHugh_PhD

I hate to bash Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, but I'm going to for a few pages. Here's the deal. The current economic threat is screaming for an aggressive inflation solution. Inflation comes from the Fed. Forget about the inflation the Fed has caused over the past 90 years, and the doubling of the money supply to goose markets for the past eight. A lot of that was dead wrong, a theft of our children's future, coming at an unnecessary time.

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Saturday, January 19, 2008

Bullish for Stock Markets When Economy Hits Bottom / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets

By: Roger_Conrad

Sixteen years ago, I was fortunate to work on what I still consider to be one of the best guides to understanding the stock market for US investors: “Market Timing for the Nineties” by Stephen Leeb.

At first glance, this book is dated automatically by its title. Its basic premise, however, applies to any decade. In fact, it's more relevant than ever here in 2008, where recession worries have taken over the market mood.

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Saturday, January 19, 2008

Financial Sector Crash Continues with Gigantic Bad Debt Write-downs / Stock-Markets / Banking Stocks

By: Money_and_Markets

Mike Larson writes: The stock market is in a state of near-panic. The Dow tanked another 307 points yesterday, continuing a string of triple-digit declines that have marred the new year. The latest action is proof positive that the credit problems that began in the housing and home mortgage market are spreading out in concentric circles.

They're forcing builders to cut back furiously on home construction. They're causing companies to slash jobs. They're weakening the broader economy, helping drive losses on credit cards, auto loans, and other products higher.

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Saturday, January 19, 2008

Bush's Election Year Tax Cut Gimmick as Wall Street Tumble Continues / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The looming economic recession is getting “deer-in-the-headlights” recognition by the politicians in Washington . The unfortunate response is to offer “sound byte” solutions rather than real economic stimulus. The Bush administration and the presidential candidates are all vying for who can offer the most attractive stimulus to voters rather than offer the best solution for a healthy economy. The Wall Street Journal offers some insight into the dilemma that we face.

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Friday, January 18, 2008

Financial Markets Roadmap for 2008! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets

By: Money_and_Markets

Larry Edelson writes: Today, I'm going to give you my updated roadmap to the markets — a general guide you can use to determine the trends in all the major markets I cover.

My projections are based on actual signals from my computer models. I watch these indicators very closely because they tell me when a fork ... a speed bump ... or a U-turn is coming in the markets.

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Friday, January 18, 2008

Stock and Commodity Market Forecasts 2008 - Enormous Investment Opportunities - Part I / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets

By: Ty_Andros

2008 is going to be one for the record books. Like a roller coaster or thrill ride at an amusement park, the economic and financial ups and downs will thrill you and chill you! The opportunities in this year, and the next ten years, are ENORMOUS and as big as ever witnessed in history as the globe evolves and globalization unfolds. As a billion people in the G7 pay the price for their FAILURE to learn history's lessons, ask questions of their elected officials and demand accountability. Three billion people in the emerging world stand poised to ascend to thriving economies and new middle classes on the recipe of that little known economic school of thought called AUSTRIAN economics.

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Friday, January 18, 2008

US Stock Markets Dome Top Signals Tragic End of the Bull Market / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets

By: Clive_Maund

The large top area now forming in the main US stock market indices is now approaching completion. Given the horrifying fundamentals it is a wonder that they haven't broken down and gone into freefall already. Only 2 things have supported the market since the major financial crisis burst out into the open last August. One is massive injections of liquidity - money that was created artificially out of nowhere by the Fed and central banks worldwide in order to paper over the cracks and buy time, which must feed through into higher inflation.

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Thursday, January 17, 2008

Stock Markets Fall to Critical Support - The Moment of Truth? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets

By: Marty_Chenard

Are we approaching a "moment of truth"? ... where the market finds a bottom, or loses critical support that has a more serious down move?

Let's explore 3 charts where we can get an understanding of the juncture we have now come to.

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Thursday, January 17, 2008

Corporate Earnings Estimates for 2008 Defy Logic - Analysts Are Last to Embrace Reality / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations

By: Michael_Pento

What a start for the year! The S&P 500 began with its worst initial 5 trading day performance ever, Goldman Sachs joined the chorus of those who are predicting a recession for 2008, consumer confidence sunk to a record low of 56.3 and the Markit CDX North American Investment Grade series 9 index (a measure of corporate bond default risk) climbed to 100 basis points—the widest since the index's inception four years ago.

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Thursday, January 17, 2008

2008 Asset Class Investment Outlook Studies Point to Commodities Out performance / Stock-Markets / Investing

By: Chris_Ciovacco

2008 Off To Rocky Start
As we all know, asset markets do not like uncertainty. With SIVs (structured investment vehicles) and countless shaky mortgages floating through the financial system, uncertainty abounds. Since none of us know how bad things may get or how long this may last, adding some diversification to your portfolio might seem appealing. Below, is a brief look at the relative attractiveness of several asset classes based on what we know today and what we have experienced in the past. As in any environment, there is no perfect way to address the problems of the current day. However, some alternatives appear to be more attractive than others.

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Thursday, January 17, 2008

Casino Royale Investment Markets - The House Always Wins? / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation

By: Brian_Bloom

Let there be no misunderstanding. The “investment” markets across the globe have become like casinos and, in trying to make a buck in any of these markets, you are betting against the house. If you want commodity prices in general to rise, and the gold price in particular to rise, you can be sure that the house wants these prices to fall. If you want the price of industrial equities to fall, you can be sure that the house wants them to rise. Who will pocket the most winnings in this monstrous game of roulette?

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Thursday, January 17, 2008

Investment Portfolios Face Destruction as Credit Crunch Intensifies / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Doug_Wakefield

Are The Levees Starting to Break? - “I have often stopped to ponder our human condition – specifically, our uncanny ability to dismiss the seriousness of an event beforehand and to lament our lack of preparation after it has happened. How many New Orleans residents stated, in some form or fashion, that they never expected the storm to break the levees? But, it's easy to see the rational behind their unresponsiveness. They had been through countless storms since the levees were first established and nothing that dire had ever happened.” – September 2006, The Investor's Mind: Too Costly to Bear

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Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Utility Stocks Stll Positive Trend / Stock-Markets / US Utilities

By: Mike_Paulenoff

My overall work is telling me to remain long the XLU unless it breaks below the January 4 pivot low at 41.86. It is with that in mind that I intend to ride out this pullback ahead of the emergence of a new upleg that propels the sector to new highs in the 45.50-46.00 area.

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Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Energy and Financial Investing Themes 2008: A Tale of Two Halves - Part2 / Stock-Markets / Investing

By: Hans_Wagner

The beginning of a new year is a good time to make a new assessment of the important investment drivers and themes for the year. If you want to beat the market it is important to understand what is driving the markets and where the best sectors are to find good opportunities. By identifying these factors you will have a solid framework to assess the impact market movements and news events on your investment strategy. This is the first of a five part series on the outlook for the 2008 markets. The first part discussed the key drivers ending with a mention of what sectors will benefit and those that will be hurt. This Part discusses the Energy and Financial sectors. The remaining three parts will review each of the remaining sectors in more detail.

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Wednesday, January 16, 2008

How Do You Spell Stock Market Correction? / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets

By: Steve_Selengut

During every correction, I encourage investors to avoid the destructive inertia that results from trying to determine: "How low can we go?" and/or "How long will this last?" Investors who add to their portfolios during downturns invariably experience higher values during the next advance. Yes, Virginia, just as certainly as there is a Santa Claus, there is another market advance in our future. And despite a still much too high DJIA, we are in the seventh month of a correction. (The eighth month if you own income securities.)

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Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Stocks and Bond Market Forecasts for 2008 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets

By: Paul_J_Nolte

Vacation and holidays have prevented the usual writing of the newsletter, so this will serve as the annual prognostication letter. First, the markets should start the year weak, employment will be poor and bond yields will be at their lowest in 4 years by mid-month. Oh, that has already happened…not bad predicting so far! The rest of the year won't be as easy, especially for financial markets. The persistent news revolving around credit and availability, write-offs and housing inventories should keep the markets on the defensive for much of the year. Last year we predicting a poor market – we were wrong until August.

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Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Shadow Banking System Crumbling as Losses Double to $500 Billion / Stock-Markets / Global Financial System

By: John_Mauldin

This week look at a short but very important piece by Bill Gross. He has my same concern about credit default swaps, but he puts a number to it. He thinks the cost to the world economic system could be in the $250 billion dollar range. Add that to the $250 billion in losses due to the subprime markets, and you are starting to talk real money. The Shadow Banking System is at the center of the problem. I trust you will find this of interest.

Bill Gross was just named Fixed Income Manager of the Year by Morningstar. He sits on the largest pile of bonds in the world at PIMCO and is their Managing Director.

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Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Stock Markets Tumble on Nikkei 3 Year Lows and Citigroup Dividend Cut Expectations / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets

By: Adrian_Ash

SPOT GOLD PRICES fell $6 from an overnight rally to $911 per ounce just before the London open on Tuesday, while Asian stocks fell and the US Dollar held at 7-week lows vs. the Euro and Japanese Yen.

Japan 's Nikkei fell 1 percent, finishing below 14,000 for the first time since November 2005 after Bank of Japan chief Toshihiko Fukui said Japan 's economic growth will "slow for some time."

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Monday, January 14, 2008

The Future of Investing 2008 : National Debt, Social Security, Medicare All Point Towards More Inflation / Stock-Markets / Investing

By: Chris_Ciovacco

As volatility increases in 2008, it will be important for us to continue to focus on the most important fundamental drivers of asset prices. If I had to choose only three words to describe the future of investing they would be debt and asset values. Debt and asset values have a significant impact on government policy.

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