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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Wednesday, December 26, 2018

Has this Stock Market Selloff Reached a Bottom Yet? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Everyone wants to know if this selloff has reached a low or bottom yet and what to expect over the next 30~60+ days. Since October, the US stock market has reacted to the US Fed raising rates above 2.0% with dramatic downward price moves. The latest raise by the US Fed resulted in a very clear price decline in the markets illustrating the fact that investors don’t expect the markets to recover based on the current geopolitical and economic climate.

Over 5 years ago, our research team developed a financial modeling system that attempted to model the US Fed Funds Rate optimal levels given certain inputs (US GDP, US Population, US Debt, and others). The effort by our team of researchers was to attempt to identify where and when the US Fed should be adjusting rates and when and where the US Fed would make a mistake. The basic premise of our modeling system is that as long as Fed keeps rates within our model’s optimal output parameters, the US (and presumably global) economy should continue to operate without massive disruption events unless some outside event (think Europe, China or another massive economic collapse) disrupts the ability of the US economy from operating efficiently. We’ve included a screen capture of the current FFR modeling results below.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, December 25, 2018

Rampaging Stock Bear Markets WorldWide vis-à-vis CHRISTMAS / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: I_M_Vronsky

All major stock indices WORLDWIDE are presently in a Bear Market mode. In fact there is no exception: Stocks are trending downward in the North America, Asia, Europe and Mexico…without exception. This analysis will consist of mainly the stock charts of 16 major exchanges of the three continents (i.e. the Americas, Asia and Europe):

  • North America (USA and Canada)

  • Asia (China, Hong Kong, India and Japan)

  • Europe (Germany, France and Euro FTSE)

  • Mexico

  • Dow Jones Global And World Indices

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, December 25, 2018

Treasury Secretary Panics as Stock Markets Melt Down and Trump Mulls Firing Fed Chair Powell / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: MoneyMetals

Wall Street didn’t take well to the Federal Reserve’s latest rate hike and projection for two more to come in 2019.

Neither did the White House.

President Donald Trump slammed Fed chairman Jerome Powell yet again and reportedly asked advisors within his inner circle whether he has the legal authority to fire Powell.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, December 24, 2018

If The Fundamentals Are Still Bullish, Why Is The Stock Market Crashing? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

I would not have had to invest or work at all if I had $100 for every time I heard an analyst tell me that the market is just not trading upon fundamentals at this time. In fact, when the market seems to disconnect from the fundamentals, analysts view it as the market being wrong.

But, isn't it my responsibility as an investor to align my investment account with the market rather than the "fundamentals?" So, I would much rather be wrong and profitable rather than be right and in the red.

Take a step back and think about this. When the market was hitting its low in 2009, were the fundamentals bearish or bullish?

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Stock-Markets

Monday, December 24, 2018

S&P Breaks 2018 Feb Lows – What Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The ES (S&P e-mini contracts) broke the support level from the February 2018 lows immediately after the US Federal Reserve announced a 25 bp rate hike this week. This breakdown below the February 2018 lows is concerning because it indicates that previous support is not holding and we could be in for further downside price activity.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, December 24, 2018

Stock Market Waterfall Decline / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Bullish, but correcting within the long-term bull market trend.

Intermediate trend – A bearish correction has started which could retrace as low as 2200 before it is complete

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, December 23, 2018

Can The Markets Get Any Worse? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Supported by its Cycle Top at 21.96, VIX rallied above its Head & Shoulders neckline at 30.00 on Friday, closing above it.  It is entirely possible that it could meet its target in the next week.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, December 22, 2018

Worst December for Stock Market Since the Great Depression. What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

This is officially the third worst December for the stock market since 1900. The only other 2 times the S&P fell more than -12% in December were 1930 and 1931

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, December 22, 2018

Markets Reject the Fed? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

On Wednesday, the Fed raised the Fed Funds rate by a quarter point as expected. The FOMC statement was suitably "dovish" by reducing the consensus forward guidance on future rate hikes from three to two. The Fed also signalled that its Quantitative Tightening program would continue on "autopilot" as planned. The response was not what the Fed expected. Stocks fell hard and bonds soared.

Financial markets are about to revisit some important questions.

First, does QE actually work? Does it boost the real economy or does it simply drive up valuations by encouraging speculation? We think the weakest economic recovery in two generations provides the answer.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, December 21, 2018

Extreme Bearish Stock Market Sentiment. What this Means for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

Bearish sentiment in the stock market is at an extreme right now. For example, the Put/Call Ratio is at its highest level ever. During such times, the stock market can go down more in the short term (when panic sets in, it’s hard to know the exact bottom). That’s why it’s always better to focus on risk:reward and remain unemotional.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, December 21, 2018

Trump-Defying Fed Enters Danger Zone for Economy and Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: MoneyMetals

The Fed blinked – but didn’t flinch away from another rate hike. On Wednesday, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policymakers rejected President Donald Trump’s call for a pause. They raised their benchmark rate by a quarter point to a range up to 2.5%.

The only concession Fed chairman Jerome Powell offered to Trump and nervous stock market investors was a revised, less hawkish outlook for 2019. Powell and company now indicate they intend to hike just twice next year.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, December 20, 2018

The S&P 500 is Now Wown -15%. What’s Next for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The S&P 500 is now down approximately -15%

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, December 19, 2018

Stock Market Collapse? Buckle Up, It’s About to Get NASTY / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Graham_Summers

The Fed is expected to hike rates today. However, the bulls are hoping that the Fed will ALSO state that it now expects to hike rates FEWER times in 2019.

Let that sink in for a moment.

The ONLY reason the Fed would hike rates fewer times in 2019 is if the financial system is in serious trouble. So… the best we can hope for is that the Fed gets dovish because things are getting horrific?

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, December 19, 2018

Stock Market Alert: The Dikembe Mutombo Continues to Hold! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Barry_M_Ferguson

A lot of people voice opposition to walls. Funny. There is a wall on the Dow Jones Industrial’s chart.

Yeah, I know. Readers of my blog are shocked that Dow 24k cannot be breached. Again, as former NBA star Dikembe Mutombo used to block shots near the basket, the Federal Reserve certainly does the same in stocks. Specifically, they are currently defending the Dow 24k line with great force and determination. Check my previous blog posts for the DML (Dikembe Mutombo Line) origination.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, December 19, 2018

Stock Market ES Sets Up Major Double Bottom Ahead of the Fed / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The downside price rotation in the US markets on Monday, December 17, set up a near-perfect double bottom formation near the 2530 price level and also prompted a dramatic price recovery after reaching these lows.  Currently, the ES has rallied over 35 pts from this low level and will likely pause before the Fed minutes are announced on Wednesday, December 19.

If the Fed holds true to their earlier promises of continued rate increases, we could see this 2530 level broken as price retreats from any relief rally and attempts to find lower support.  If the Fed changes the context of their message and adopts a slower and more insightful rate policy, the markets are poised for one heck of a potential rally.  The ES if down by a little more than 400 points (-13.75%) from the peak in September 2018.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, December 18, 2018

Will US Government Shutdown Cause The Stock Market To Crash? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

Last Monday, the market dropped over 70 points from its intra-day high to just below 2600SPX, and a reporter on television claimed it was due to the “postponement of the Brexit vote.” Yet, around mid-day, the market began to rally off its lows, and ended positive for the day. But, there was no substantive reason cited for this rally. The same television announcer simply noted that “stocks are rising after a wild day in the market yesterday.” Does that make “wild days” in the stock market a reason for a rally? I guess that is the best they could do when there was no news available to explain the rally.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, December 18, 2018

The Coming Financial Storm / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: FXCOT

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped more than 500 points Monday as investors looked ahead to this week’s Federal Reserve meeting amid mounting signs of slowing economic growth around the world. Major indexes opened modestly lower and began a steady descent around midday. All 30 stocks in the Dow industrials and all 11 sectors in the S&P 500 ended lower. The declines pulled the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite into the red for the year, while the Russell 2000 index of small-capitalization stocks slumped into a bear market--a decline of more than 20% from its Aug. 31 high. And U.S. crude settled below $50 a barrel for the first time in 14 months.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, December 18, 2018

Jeff Gundlach thinks that a Stocks Bear Market has started. Is he Right? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The S&P is now sitting at a 1 year low. And of course, traditional technical analysis states “if the S&P breaks below this support level, watch out below”.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, December 17, 2018

Stock Market At Medium-Term Lows, Which Direction is Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Paul_Rejczak

Friday's trading session was bearish, as the broad stock market got closer to its medium-term local low again. Will the downtrend continue today?

The U.S. stock market indexes lost 1.9-2.3% on Friday, retracing their recent advance, as investors' sentiment worsened again. The S&P 500 index is currently 11.6% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.0% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.3% on Friday.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, December 17, 2018

Stock Market Turn In The Tide - Have a Happy Bear Market! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Plunger

Using Charles Dow’s well known method of reading the stock market’s movements , on Friday December 14th 2018 , the averages confirmed a bearish indication and can now be classified to be in a bear market. This action Friday is the first occurrence of a valid bear market signal in 11 years.  Together the Dow Industrials and Transportation averages triggered a bear market signal following a major bull market of unprecedented duration of almost 10 years.  After 10 years of unprecedented monetary and policy intervention by the central banks of the world intending to fuel the bull market, the signal indicates the bull market has reached exhaustion and the primary trend has now reversed.

The implications of such a signal are beyond the ability of the vast majority of citizens to comprehend since a bear market has not been allowed to run its course since December 1974. Furthermore, an entire generation of investors has not even experienced a market in a primary downtrend since as has been 10 years since such an event last occurred.

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