Thursday, October 03, 2019
Dow Jones may have already bottomed But SP500 & Nasdaq have further to go / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Have you been following our research? Were you prepared for this move like we were? Did you profit from this incredibly quick and volatile downside price move in the US markets? What is it going to do to the foreign markets and what next?
Our team of researchers has been all over this setup many months before it happened. In fact, we issued a research article on September 30 suggesting our predictive modeling system was warning of a big price rotation in the NQ and ES. On September 21, we authored another research article suggesting a “massive price reversion may be days or weeks away”. On September 7th, we authored yet another article suggesting “US STOCK MARKET HASN’T CLEARED THE STORM YET”
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Thursday, October 03, 2019
A Simple, But Elegant Resolution In The Precious Metals Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
Originally published on Sat Sep 28 for our ElliottWaveTrader members: With the various charts we track unable to complete 5 waves up off the low struck two weeks, it would seem that we can count all of those charts as having just completed a corrective rally top, with more pullback likely to be seen. In fact, this is primarily why I have been stressing that I was treating the last rally as a corrective one until otherwise proven by the market.
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Thursday, October 03, 2019
When Will the Turnaround in Gold Likely Come? Implications for Silver? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: P_Radomski_CFA
In yesterday’s analysis, we emphasized that even though a big decline in gold is already underway, it’s likely that it won’t be a straight move down and there will be periodic corrections. Moreover, we provided price targets from which the bounce could start. Based on the circumstances, it might even be a tradable move. In today’s analysis, we’re going to show you that there are signals suggesting that the turnaround might start relatively soon – during this month.
But first, let’s take a look at the most recent price changes.
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Thursday, October 03, 2019
Economics Is Like Quantum Physics / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
I often say a writer is nothing without readers. I am blessed to have some of the world’s greatest. Your feedback never fails to inspire and enlighten me.
My last week’s That Time Keynes Had a Point letter brought many more comments than usual. Apparently Keynes is still provocative 73 years after his death, no matter what you say about him.
But my real point was about the twisted economic thought that is having dangerous effects on us all. And we can’t blame it just on Keynes.
Today I want to share some of the feedback I received, add a few thoughts, and then show you some real-world consequences that are only getting worse. But first, let me wax philosophic for a minute.
Thursday, October 03, 2019
Deflation or Inflation: Gold Doesn't Care / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, discuss recession, central bank panic and an outrageous gold price.
In our view, gold investors should settle back with some popcorn and enjoy the coming fireworks, which will include the best gold bull market ever, with all the volatility that implies. We see new all-time highs just around the corner. The challenge is to take a position and stay the course. Central banks are about to pay for decades of bad policy and gold will reap the dividends.
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Wednesday, October 02, 2019
Walmart Is Quietly Turning Healthcare on Its Head / Companies / Healthcare Sector
By: Stephen_McBride
Was Obamacare good for the average American family? Before you answer, look at this chart...
It shows the stock performance of UnitedHealth (UNH), America’s biggest health insurance company, since 2010:
Wednesday, October 02, 2019
Last Train Out for Gold, Silver and Platinum Bulls? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
The people who are prepared are going to reap rewards such as they have never dreamed. We're going to have the biggest transfer of wealth in history – from the fools – to those who are prepared. – Bob Moriarty
The run up of the last few months to $1,565 gold and $19 silver has stalled out into a relatively high-level correction, giving back less than might be expected after such a spirited rise.
Wednesday, October 02, 2019
Cycles Supporting Market Consolidations / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: readtheticker
Cycles show how regular time and price periods work within price action, they help thread the needle as to where price may move to next. Cycles with Wyckoff logic help expose how fundamentals are working through price action to motivate price to a new level. Here are some examples of cycles with other readtheticker indicators. Chart 1: If the SP500 trends higher on QE4 and gold holds up, then gold stocks should do well, and most likely out perform gold itself.
Wednesday, October 02, 2019
Stock Market Downside Price Rotation Dominates After Manufacturing Data / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team has been all over this longer-term Pennant/Flag setup and the potential for the breakdown in the US/Global markets. The US manufacturing data released today confirmed what we believed would be the outcome of the extended trade issues between the US and China – a moderate slowdown in US manufacturing. Couple that with a US Fed that is attempting to navigate very difficult economic developments, consumers headed into the Christmas season unsure of what lies ahead, the US political environment (almost complete chaos) and uncertainties with foreign markets and we have a perfect setup for “investor malaise”.
This is something we last saw after 9/11 and even earlier in 1990 when the US invaded Kuwait. With each of these events, consumers and investors entered a phase of moderate indifference/malaise in terms of attention put towards global economics and investing as well as a general unwillingness to actively engage in anything related to investing and finance related. It appeared that consumers and investors were just busy taking care of their lives, families, jobs and watching the “news cycle” as it seemed every evening something new hit the news-cycles to distract from the markets.
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Wednesday, October 02, 2019
Economics of Geopolitic - Why US Senate Targeted Philippines and Other Countries / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
The new Senate bill targeting the Philippines and some other countries – Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia - is fueled by controversial political and economic agendas that have caused turmoil since the 1980s.
For some time, US Senators Richard Durbin (Dem, Illinois) and Patrick Leahy (Dem, Vermont) had pushed for an amendment in the 2020 state and foreign operations appropriations bill by the US Senate appropriations committee. Essentially, the amendment would deny entry of Philippine government officials involved in the detention of Philippine opposition Senator Leila de Lima.
Last week, the US Senate panel approved the amendment. Durbin considers De Lima’s detention a “politically motivated imprisonment.” According to Philippine government, De Lima was arrested and detained in 2017 for allegedly asking money from drug convicts to fund her senatorial campaign and for allowing the drug trade to continue in the national penitentiary while she was the justice secretary. Despite evidence, she claims the cases against her are “politically motivated.”
Wednesday, October 02, 2019
A Guide to FX Trading By Artur Hochberg / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Travis_Bard
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Tuesday, October 01, 2019
Silver Q4 Seasonal Outlook / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Mike_McAra
What has been will be again,
what has been done will be done again;
there is nothing new under the sun.
- Ecclesiastes 1:9
History repeats itself. Not always, and not 100%, but often enough and to an extent that’s significant enough to make these repetitions potentially profitable. In order to take advantage of this tendency, we created a tool called True Seasonals (and we are now providing it free of charge). If you heard about seasonality, you already know what to expect, but you may not know what you have been missing. Many things take place at the same time each year (for instance people making a lot of jokes on April Fools’ Day), but quite a few of them take place only more or less regularly.
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Tuesday, October 01, 2019
This Little-Known Class of Stocks Will Thrive as Rates Go Down and Volatility Up / Companies / Investing 2019
By: Robert_Ross
An entire class of high-yield stocks just got a big boost.Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced last Wednesday that the central bank will cut interest rates by 0.25%.
But we expected this. Investors had already priced in a 100% probability that the Fed would cut rates, according to global brokerage CME Group.
This is the second rate cut in the last three months. But it’s only the beginning.
As I’ll explain shortly, I expect the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates two more times this year.
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Tuesday, October 01, 2019
... / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
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Tuesday, October 01, 2019
Netflix’s Worst Nightmare Is Your Great Opportunity / Companies / Investing 2019
By: Stephen_McBride
Did you know Queen Elizabeth ll has her own Youtube channel?Every year since 1957, she’d get on cable TV to address her nation.
But in 2007, the Queen did what no monarch had ever done. She set herself up on Youtube.
Cable TV is clearly dying. Even an 81-year-old monarch knew it back in 2007!
Those who saw this coming early on made fortunes...
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Tuesday, October 01, 2019
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 Conclusion / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Just when you thought things could not get any more chaotic and unpredictable up pop a series of market moving events such as the Iranians seeing red and firing 20 drones and missiles at Saudi oil infrastructure, knocking out 5% of the worlds oil supply. Though apart from the immediate spike in the crude oil price to $64, it does not appear to have resulted in a change in trend as the price has already settled into its well established $62.50 to $52.50 trading range which suggests the markets don't see this as the start of another gulf war.
Tuesday, October 01, 2019
Predictive Modeling Suggests Stock Market Rotation in NQ and ES / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We wanted to share some information that suggests the NQ (NASDAQ) and ES (S&P 500) may engage in some relatively broad market rotation over the next few weeks. Also, to share that the YM (Dow Industrials) may stay relatively flat throughout this span of time. Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system is showing somewhere between 8% to 18% or more in price movement.
The fact that our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting the ES and NQ may rotate lower over the next few weeks and that the YM may not share the same levels of price volatility suggests that the Dow Industrials (35 stocks) may be viewed as a more solid economic base than the tech-heavy NASDAQ (100 symbols) and the various symbols within the S&P 500 (500 symbols).
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Monday, September 30, 2019
Will Stock Market S&P 2955 Break or Hold? / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Ricky_Wen
The fourth week of September played out as a downside range consolidation pattern as the bulls failed their immediate upside setup and bears tried to resurrect themselves. In hindsight, the week played out according to statistics since 1960 as the week after September OPEX remains the weakest week. The only problem with the week is that there was still no decisive winner as price kept flirting with the 2955 breakdown or hold-above pattern on the Emini S&P 500 (ES). Friday during RTH pierced below 2955 for a few minutes, but the price action was unwilling to close below it, so everything is still stuck in the overall range.
The main takeaway from the fourth week of September is that both sides are starting to get impatient now because it’s been two weeks of digestion versus the three weeks of August continuous upside grind. The only thing that matters now is whether this is just a simple backtest of August’s breakout 2930-2940 zone or bears finally can resurrect themselves with the 3020s double-top pattern.
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Monday, September 30, 2019
The Fed Has Admitted It Screwed Up… the Next Crisis is Coming / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
That’s THREE strikes against the Fed.
The Fed cut rates again in September.
At this point, trying to keep track of the Fed’s reasoning for monetary policy is all but impossible. There is no logic or reason behind anything they do.
A year ago, the Fed told us that hiking rates four times a year while running $50 billion in Quantitative Tightening (QT) per month would have no effect on the economy or financial system.
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Monday, September 30, 2019
Watching Paint Dry in the Repo Market Part 2 / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Michael_Pento
The Fed has now begun to pave the way for a return to Quantitative Easing. The reason for this was the recent spike in borrowing rates in the Repo market. At his latest press, Chair Powell said this about the spike in the Effective Fed Funds and Repo rates:“Going forward, we’re going to be very closely monitoring market developments and assessing their implications for the appropriate level of reserves. And we’re going to be assessing the question of when it will be appropriate to resume the organic growth of our balance sheet… It is certainly possible that we’ll need to resume the organic growth of the balance sheet sooner than we thought.”
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