Saturday, February 01, 2020

Gold Bulls Are Impatient: Will They See a Recession in 2020? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Recession, recession - will we see one in 2020? And will it bring about a rally in gold then?. True or false? In today’s article, we’ll test the ‘recession in 2020’ narrative and we’ll then show you what it all means for the gold market.

One year ago, we wrote that “we do not expect recession next year or even in 2020”. We were right: the U.S. economy did not slide into a recession in 2019. But will it happen this year? After all, the current economic expansion lasts 127 months. We know that expansions do not die of old age, but we also know that the next economic crisis will one day arrive, sooner or later. Twelve months ago, we were skeptical about a downturn in 2020, as “the lack of clear typical warning signs that preceded the past recessions put the ‘recession in 2020’ narrative into question”.

Saturday, February 01, 2020

Stock Market Combination Topping Pattern Is Setting Up / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team has highlighted a number of technical and other factors that point to a very real potential of a major market top setting up across the global markets.  We’ve highlighted a number of research articles over the past 30 to 45 days that clearly illustrate our interpretation of the US and global markets.

Our research team believes the Coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan china will cripple economic expansion and consumer economic activity in China and much of SE Asia over the next few weeks and months.  If the virus spreads into India, it could quickly target large portions of India’s economic capabilities.  We are very early into this potential pandemic event.  The growth rates reported by China suggest only a 2~3% death rate, yet an almost exponential growth rate for the number of invested.  It started off below 100 about 10+ days ago and is now almost ready to break 10k.

Saturday, February 01, 2020

Gold Miners Message for the Precious Metals Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The Fed kept rates unchanged and while it was not immediately preceded by major price moves in the PMs, the no-change decision was followed by bullish price action in the following hours. This action extends into today’s pre-market trading.

Most interestingly, however, the USD Index repeated its daily reversal confirming that lower values are to be expected. This confirms our yesterday’s analysis.

Saturday, February 01, 2020

The Dow Points To Higher Silver Prices For Years To Come / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

The Dow is at, or very close to a 90-year resistance line:

Could a top be in, or is it extremely close? What I do know, from my own research, is that major Dow peaks are extremely important when it comes to Silver rallies.

Friday, January 31, 2020

Chinese Family Fleeing Wuhan Bring CoronaVirus to UK - Pandemic Outbreak Day 54 / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The primary conduit for the spread of the virus are Chinese people fleeing a collapsing healthcare system in China which has resulted in the inevitable, Britain's first cases of Coronavirus as a Chinese family arriving into the UK on Wednesday 29th January, virtually on arrival at their York hotel called paramedics that they were infected and thus began Britain's first virus outbreak. This is likely the first of many such occurrences of Chinese families having fled chinese virus hotspots to burden western healthcare systems as they fear a near death sentence in their own country due to the magnitude of the outbreak in their nation that their selfish actions now seek to replicate elsewhere.

Friday, January 31, 2020

China Coronavirus Infections Spread vs Forecast Pandemic Update Video / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Coronavirus continues it's exponential spread across China, this despite Chinese state propaganda peddling a line of measures taken especially earlier in the month having limited the spread of the virus that is not being born out by data released that on a daily basis shows the spread is exponential to across the whole of China and likely neighbouring nations.

My analysis and concluding forecast of 28th January based on data up until the 27th of January utilised trend analysis to forecast that the Coronavirus could infect over 1 million people by the end of February 2020, which given the apparent fatality rate of 3.5% at the time converted into an death toll of at least 35,000. Which if it transpired would be far worse than the 2002-2003 SARS pandemic that infected 8,098 over 8 months resulting in 774 deaths, and thus the Coronavirus would have significant economic and market consequences.

Friday, January 31, 2020

Asian Stock Markets Analysis - China, Hong Kong, Japan, Australia, India, Taiwan / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets

By: EWI

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Friday, January 31, 2020

Silver Prepares For Next Leg Higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Following up on some of our recent metals research, we wanted to alert our friends and followers to the incredible opportunity that still exists in Silver.  We’ve highlighted two of our more recent articles for reference and review, below.  Silver continues to be one of the most incredible opportunities for 2020 and Silver Miners (SIL) could explode to the upside as the price of Silver rallies to close the gap between the Gold to Silver ratio.

Our researchers believe Silver is currently undervalued, compared to Gold, by at least 240%.  Historically, the Gold to Silver ratio averages a 10+ year rotational range of between 63 to 67.  This means that through both peaks and troughs, ranging from the high 80s to mid-90s to the low 30s to mid-40s, on average the middle price range level for this ratio is near 65.  Currently, this Gold to Silver ratio is 88.4.

Gold is currently trading at $1590 – just below the recent peak near $1613.  We believe that Gold will continue to rally higher, breaking the $1613 level, and continue higher targeting the $1750 level over the next few months.  Eventually, within 2020, we believe Gold will continue to rally higher breaking the $2100 price level.

Friday, January 31, 2020

How Much Should You Have In Your 401k? / Personal_Finance / Pensions & Retirement

By: Submissions

401k is considered one of the most common retirement savings accounts being offered by companies to their employees. It’s one of their ways to assist their workers in preparing for their future. This account is very beneficial as it has both savings and tax advantages.

This retirement fund is not limited to cash but can also be in the form of stocks, real estate investment trusts, and mutual funds. What’s good with this is that it’s temporarily deductible from the taxable income up the portion of the employees’ contribution.

Friday, January 31, 2020

... / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Thursday, January 30, 2020

Coronavirus Infections Spread vs Forecast - 30th Jan 2020 Pandemic Update / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Coronavirus continues it's exponential spread across China, this despite Chinese state propaganda peddling a line of measures taken especially earlier in the month having limited the spread of the virus that is not being born out by data released that on a daily basis shows the spread is exponential to across the whole of China and likely neighbouring nations.

My analysis and concluding forecast of 28th January based on data up until the 27th of January utilised trend analysis to forecast that the Coronavirus could infect over 1 million people by the end of February 2020, which given the apparent fatality rate of 3.5% at the time converted into an death toll of at least 35,000. Which if it transpired would be far worse than the 2002-2003 SARS pandemic that infected 8,098 over 8 months resulting in 774 deaths, and this the Coronavirus would have significant economic and market consequences.

Thursday, January 30, 2020

Fed Keeps Federal Funds Rate Unchanged Again / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The FOMC held its first meeting in both the new year and the decade, keeping interest rates unchanged. But why did the yellow metal move up regardless? Let’s examine the implications for the king of metals.

Yesterday, the FOMC published the monetary policy statement from its latest meeting that took place on January 28-29th. In line with expectations, the US central bank kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 1.50 to 1.75 percent:

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1 1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. The Committee judges that the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate to support sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation returning to the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective.

Thursday, January 30, 2020

Deep Analysis and charts: Risk Market ignore global pandemic fears / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: Submissions

There has been two major events in January. First there was the brief intensification of the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, which quickly ramped back down. Secondly there is the coronavirus epidemic in China, which in the space of a week has spread from Wuhan and imprinted itself globally at pandemic levels, bringing much of China to a standstill when it would usually be celebrating the Lunar New Year.

Thursday, January 30, 2020

Youtube Channel Watch Time Hours Drop Below 4000 Hours, What Happens to Monetization? / Companies / Google

By: HGR

We all know that 4000 hours over the past 12 months is the minimum requirement for a youtube channel to be accepted into the youtube partner programme and become monetized.

But what happens to an existing channel that drops below 4000 Watch time hours, as is the case with the channel in this video that is currently running at just 3000 watch time hours and has been doing so for several months.

Thursday, January 30, 2020

Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis 2020 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The gold bull market ended 2019 with a strong gain of 19%. The first half the year was marked with uncertainty as the price after an early year surge to $1350 gave up all of it's gains to drift lower to trade down on the year by early May. However, this was the calm before the bull market storm and that set the stage for a powerful bull run starting early June that saw the Gold price rocket higher to a early September peak of $1566, up over 25% on the year! Igniting Gold bug fever and encouraging prominent gold bugs to get carried away with headlines of Gold heading for $5000 and beyond.

Thursday, January 30, 2020

Gold Long-Term CoT Perspective / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

Because it’s so important to see this correctly and not pretend we (well, I) know more than we (I) actually do I find it important to look at pictorial representations of history and think about them when I get some quiet time (ha ha ha, like not on Twitter, not reading financial/gold websites and most certainly not watching TeeVee finance and news).

So I am thinking about the Commitments of Traders alignment with respect to the gold price once again. That would be the same CoT that has doggedly hung a poor risk vs. reward sign out over the sector from a sentiment standpoint since the summer.

Thursday, January 30, 2020

Are We Setting Up For A Stock Market Waterfall Selloff? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Most traders understand what a “Waterfall event” is if you’ve been trading for more than 3 years.  Nearly every downside price reversion event initiates in a breakdown event (the first tier of the waterfall event) which is followed by additional deeper waterfall price collapses.  Almost like price breaks lower, finds support, settles near support, then breaks lower targeting deeper price support levels.

SPY Daily Chart

This example SPY chart from October 2018 through December 2018 highlights this type of event almost perfectly.  With each tier in the waterfall event, price searches for new support levels as price weakness drives price lower throughout each breakdown event.  We’ve highlighted these breakdown events with the MAGENTA lines drawn on this chart.

Thursday, January 30, 2020

There’s No Fever Like Gold Fever… / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

In late December 2019, a bill from the German finance ministry – which had passed the lower legislative house – proposed lowering the "anonymous purchase limit" for precious metals from €10,000 to €2,000 (about $2,200), a reduction of 80%.

At the current price, one could buy less than one and one-half troy ounces of gold without activating customer ID paperwork, and for businesses – a criminal background check!

This is an additional decline from the €15,000 mandated just two years ago. Set to become law in early 2020, the effect was immediate, as long lines outside a coin shop in Cologne show.

Some of the world's largest banks – including several in Germany – have long made a habit of laundering literally billions of dollars, euros, and assorted financial instruments from questionable customers.

Thursday, January 30, 2020

5 Reasons that Make Forex the Best Market to Trade / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: Submissions

Wednesday, January 29, 2020

Silver Price Trend Forecast / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

We can all dream about Silver outpacing Gold. However the truth about Silver is that it tends to under perform during precious metals bull markets, and only really coming alive in the bull markets final stages when it tends to spike. So Silver for 2019 did what Silver tends to do which is to under perform against Gold. Though in reality maybe investors tend to set their hopes too high, as a gain of 15% for the year is still pretty good going against Gold up 19%.