The green line tracks fluctuations in the US yield curve, defined as the difference in yield between 10-year and 2-year Treasuries. When the yield curve is steeply positive, banks are able to borrow short at low rates and lend long at higher rates, earning a nice return and in the process driving economic growth. When the yield curve flattens the opposite occurs, with banks unable to make money and becoming reluctant to lend. So a flattening yield curve implies a slowing economy. Note the similarity between the past few years’ spread contraction and the one that began in 2004 and culminated in the Great Recession.

Now check out the red and blue lines representing different measures of credit quality. The lower they are, the fewer loans are in various categories of “non-performance,” and vice versa. What’s happening now is similar to the spike in bad loans that started in 2005.

The implication: Despite the headline numbers (like Friday’s largely-fictitious jobs report) that imply a stable, modest expansion, under the surface the financial system — composed of business loans, bank profits, etc. — is deteriorating fast.

And since interest rates have fallen rather than risen post-Brexit, causing yield curves around the world to flatten further, it’s safe to say that these trends are accelerating.

That would explain why so many iconic money managers and speculators have turned publicly bearish recently. The latest is Jeremy Grantham of Boston-based hedge fund GMO. Here’s an excerpt from a MarketWatch article on his firm’s current stance:

By John Rubino

dollarcollapse.com

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis web-site.
(c) 2005-2024 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - Market Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted. Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. By using this site you agree to this sites Terms of Use. From time to time we promote or endorse certain products / services that we believe are worthy of your time and attention. In return for that endorsement and only in the cases where you purchase directly though us may we be compensated by the producers of those products.